Tempo could possibly be a key think about Ngannou-Dos Santos battle

Francis Ngannou has actually gotten himself again on observe with back-to-back first-round knockouts, after back-to-back losses knocked him out of the UFC heavyweight title image. In his most up-to-date battle, he stopped former UFC champ Cain Velasquez in what was maybe his largest victory up to now. Ngannou will get a shot in opposition to one other former champion in Junior Dos Santos in the primary occasion of UFC Battle Evening on Saturday.

Statistically, Dos Santos has a transparent benefit when it comes to putting charge. Nevertheless, Ngannou’s energy putting additionally offers him a transparent path to victory. As we break down the important thing statistical classes that would grow to be the distinction on Saturday, some clear tendencies have emerged in every man’s profession.

Placing differential

It shouldn’t come as a shock to anybody who’s watched the UFC heavyweight division over the past decade that Dos Santos is extra of a quantity striker than Ngannou. In 19 UFC fights, the previous champion has landed four.76 vital strikes per minute, in comparison with solely 2.05 for Ngannou. Dos Santos’ offensive putting charge opens him up for counters and offense from his opponents, although, as he has absorbed three.07 per minute, which is increased than the typical for a ranked heavyweight (2.82). Alternatively, Ngannou’s conservative strategy permits him to keep up strong protection, and he permits his opponents to land just one.94 strikes on a per minute foundation.

The UFC Battle Evening primary occasion on Saturday options two of the heaviest hitters on the UFC roster, Francis Ngannou and Junior Dos Santos. Extra importantly, a title shot could possibly be at stake on this battle between extremely ranked heavyweights.

UFC Battle Evening: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos
• Saturday, Minneapolis
• Prelims: ESPN 6 p.m. ET
• Most important card: ESPN 9 p.m. ET

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Regardless of some defensive shortcomings, Dos Santos’ sturdy putting charge leaves him with a +1.69 putting differential, which is the fourth-highest amongst ranked heavyweights. Placing differential, which is critical strikes landed per minute minus vital strikes absorbed per minute, is often approximation of general putting efficiency because it measures each offense and protection. As a consequence of his lack of offensive quantity, Ngannou has solely a +Zero.11 putting differential, which ranks 14th among the many prime 16 heavyweights.

Whereas the putting differential strongly favors Dos Santos, it additionally illuminates a transparent path to victory for Ngannou. Dos Santos’ fashion depends on his means to land with quantity. Whereas this has carried him to a number of spectacular victories within the UFC, it has additionally left him with a below-average strike absorption charge. If Dos Santos sticks together with his regular fashion, he’ll nearly actually take pictures from Ngannou. That may not grow to be the very best technique.

Junior Dos Santos has vaulted into heavyweight title rivalry with three straight victories. Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Photos

Placing energy

The standout facet of Ngannou’s UFC profession has been his means to cease fights together with his strikes. He lands a powerful Zero.91 knockdowns per 15 minutes of battle time, however that doesn’t inform all the story. The UFC’s definition of a knockdown is relatively strict, and a number of standards have to be happy for one to formally rely. In his 10-fight UFC profession, Ngannou has received seven fights by way of KO/TKO as a result of strikes. In these seven fights, he has averaged solely 14.57 vital strikes per battle. It’s clear from this metric that he’s in a position to affect a battle with only a few strikes, and his stoppages are the results of energy blows, not the buildup of a number of strikes over time.

Dos Santos might need the sting when it comes to quantity putting, however Ngannou’s energy show he doesn’t must land many strikes to have an effect and even end the battle. Within the UFC, Dos Santos has been knocked down 4 instances in his profession, and he has misplaced as a result of referee stoppage due to strikes in three of his 4 losses within the promotion.

That is to not say “Cigano” would not have loads of putting energy in his personal proper. He owns a better profession knockdown charge than Ngannou, at Zero.94 knockdowns per 15 minutes, although once more, a few of that may be attributed to sheer quantity. it will seemingly be clever to make use of a extra conservative offensive fashion on this bout, as Ngannou’s means to finish the battle with just a few strikes implies that Dos Santos’ regular quantity fashion may depart him open for reprisals.

Francis Ngannou’s first-round stoppage of Cain Velasquez ought to give him momentum for his battle versus Junior Dos Santos on Saturday evening. Caitlin O’Hara for ESPN

Placing goal

To achieve success whereas touchdown so few strikes, Ngannou has centered his assault on the heads of his opponents; as you may think, head pictures trigger by far probably the most knockdowns and finishes. In his UFC profession, 81% of Ngannou’s landed vital strikes have been focused at his opponents’ heads. Dos Santos additionally lands the vast majority of his strikes above the shoulders (63%). Nevertheless, he additionally clearly has a alternative secondary goal, as 34% of his landed vital strikes have been to the physique. Not solely does he make a concerted effort to land physique pictures, however he’s additionally correct when attacking the midsection; he has landed 67% of his vital physique strike makes an attempt within the UFC.

1 Associated

This behavior of working the physique may pay dividends in opposition to Ngannou. For “The Predator,” 18% of his absorbed strikes have landed on his physique, and he avoids solely 34% of his opponents’ vital physique strike makes an attempt. On prime of that, physique pictures are historically linked with conditioning, and Ngannou has light in longer fights throughout his run within the UFC.

Together with solely fights of a minimum of 5 minutes, Dos Santos’ putting differential is strictly the identical as his profession mark (+1.69). Alternatively, Ngannou has had 4 fights that had been 5 minutes or longer within the UFC, and his putting differential is considerably decrease within the longer bouts; in these 4 fights, his putting differential stands at -Zero.45.

If Dos Santos is ready to constantly land to the physique, he may assist put a dent in Ngannou’s already questionable cardio. An extended battle performs to his favor, and an exhausted Ngannou may have a number of hassle maintaining with Dos Santos.

Placing protection

Although Dos Santos absorbs a substantial variety of vital strikes, his putting protection, a minimum of when it comes to share, is fairly strong. Throughout his UFC profession, he has managed to keep away from 58% of his opponents’ vital makes an attempt, which is tied with UFC heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier for fifth-best amongst ranked heavyweights. This stat implies that his strike absorption challenge is because of frequently participating in high-volume putting confrontations and never an absence of footwork or head motion.

Ngannou lands solely 37% of his vital strike makes an attempt. That charge is the second-worst amongst ranked heavyweights and forward of solely Blagoy Ivanov. Previously, Dos Santos has allowed himself to be hit by throwing an abundance of strikes. If he is ready to decrease his quantity to keep away from counters, Ngannou won’t have the accuracy to constantly land. The previous champion has the defensive means to keep away from energy pictures, however he must make use of a complete risk-limiting technique to reap the benefits of Ngannou’s inaccuracy.