What are Cubs taking part in for in second half? Joe Maddon’s job, for starters

CHICAGO — Not lengthy after the Chicago Cubs gained the 2016 World Sequence, Theo Epstein dismissed criticism of supervisor Joe Maddon for an additional time. When it got here all the way down to successful a championship, the staff president opined that solely the consequence mattered — not the method nor any of the controversial decision-making by the person within the dugout.

The Cubs ought to view Maddon’s subsequent 72 video games in the identical method. Irrespective of how sloppy his staff has performed, regardless of how a lot criticism he could also be due for the time being, if the Cubs win their dogfight of a division, Maddon must be rewarded.

But when his staff continues its present model of play whereas ceding the Nationwide League Central, which Chicago leads by a mere half-game because the second half begins, Maddon ought to endure the results.

As a lot because the Cubs are in it collectively, the ultimate half-season of Maddon’s five-year contract shall be a referendum on his present managerial model. That will not take something away from what he has achieved — it simply means he’ll be a part of an extended listing of former Cubs managers who by no means made it previous half a decade on the job. The one distinction is Maddon may have a championship on his resume. The others do not.

With out saying it in as many phrases, Maddon’s boss put the highlight firmly on the supervisor in his pre-All-Star break feedback.

“The sloppiness has shocked all of us,” Epstein stated final weekend of the 47-43 Cubs. “For a few years, after we’re at our greatest, we’re taking part in alert, centered, ready, heads-up baseball. … We will not put our finger on why. It isn’t anybody’s fault, per se. We now have to shake that if we wish to get the place we wish to go.”

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You are not out on a limb when you assume being ready and centered falls underneath the purview of the supervisor.

There was extra.

“This group has been collectively a very long time, so typically the identical message is not as efficient, and it is incumbent on all of us to seek out, whether or not it is transactional, discovering completely different combos or as a training workers, giving a distinct message to get essentially the most of what we’re searching for,” Epstein continued. “It isn’t straightforward. The final calendar 12 months, we’ve not actually gotten the outcomes when it comes to the best way we’re taking part in, the best way we’re dealing with challenges.”

Epstein was fast to incorporate the entrance workplace within the “collective” points the Cubs possess, however doubtlessly delivering a stale message falls squarely on the supervisor. Nevertheless, make no mistake, the entrance workplace is the primary offender in relation to the erosion of expertise and depth on the staff and within the group. That, coupled with the ascension of different groups within the division, is why the Cubs are in a five-way NL Central battle.

It additionally does not assist issues that the staff’s position-player core — which helped win a World Sequence — hasn’t reached its potential. The group tried to have interaction with its millennial group through the winter, however the issues nonetheless exist. Based on sources accustomed to the state of affairs, a current players-only assembly — in addition to a scheduled one held by Maddon — once more tried to deal with the problems amongst these gamers and their incapability to max out as a unit.

However all of that’s for an additional day. Because the saying goes, you may’t hearth 25 guys — or on this case, 12 place gamers — and let’s face it, basic supervisor Jed Hoyer is not on Epstein’s scorching seat. Maddon is. So, sure, the staff is on this “collectively,” but when/when it comes time to make a significant change, everyone knows the place the ax will fall.

“We’re not taking part in in a manner that’s consultant of who we’re,” Epstein stated. “It is gone on for some time. We’re all searching for solutions. We’re all searching for each lever we are able to pull to get this stepping into the fitting route.”

Maddon delivered the same message when he closed the doorways for his annual midseason staff assembly through the Cubs’ most up-to-date street sequence, in Pittsburgh.

“I talked to them about what I assumed we wanted to get higher at, however then I additionally provided some options,” Maddon stated afterward. “Generally you simply get off monitor somewhat bit. I assumed I gave what I assumed had been the problems after which some options.”

And there’s no drawback too inconsequential, not when the highest and backside of the division are separated by 4½ video games, and never after final season’s division title was determined by a one-game playoff.

Moreover, the Cubs are among the many league leaders in complete variety of one-run affairs, but they’re simply 12-15 in these video games. Simply flip that document round, and the way significantly better would the staff and its followers really feel in regards to the first half?

So now it is our flip. Listed here are a number of the greatest points the Cubs are dealing with and a few potential fixes that the supervisor can management:

The Cubs have been reckless on the bases.

The Cubs have made essentially the most outs (37) on the basepaths in all of baseball (excluding pickoffs, pressure outs and being caught stealing).

Included in that ugly stat is 13 outs made at residence and 10 extra at third base. These rank first and second, respectively, among the many 30 groups. So the Cubs had been inside 90 toes — or much less — of scoring 23 extra instances. How would scoring these runs translate within the win/loss column?

2 Associated

And lest you assume that is the worth of being an aggressive staff, the worth is just too steep: The Cubs have a unfavorable runs-above-average score based mostly on their baserunning, which ranks within the backside third of the league, in accordance with FanGraphs. Whereas the staff is usually praised for its first-to-third prowess, that is a product of their hitters going to proper discipline as a lot as anything. For instance, their right-handed batters rank third in opposite-field hits this season.

So why cannot the Cubs be good and aggressive on the basepaths? Here is Maddon’s philosophy, which he has said many instances through the years:

“You must watch out when speaking to the blokes, once you get too harsh about it, then abruptly they develop into station-to-station,” Maddon stated. “That is not what we’re searching for. When a man makes a mistake on the bases, I choose simply speaking to him about it. … I like aggressive baserunning. I would like us to search for the additional base, however you do not wish to make silly outs on the bases.”

After all, nobody needs to make unhealthy outs on the bases. When a staff regularly does so, is not it incumbent on the supervisor to place a cease to it? Maddon has been right here earlier than. In his first spring coaching with the Cubs, in 2015, he instructed his gamers he needed them to be aggressive on the basepaths. Maybe in an effort to impress their new supervisor, gamers ran wild on the bases early in spring video games. Ultimately, Maddon laid down the regulation.

“We’re not good at fundamentals within the recreation,” Maddon stated after his staff started that spring Zero-6-1. “We now have not finished the little issues proper that allow you to win. The wins will occur if we get the basics. The wins won’t ever occur if you aren’t getting the basics.”

It was one of many extra stern moments in Maddon’s time in Chicago — and it got here mere weeks into his tenure. The Cubs might use a few of that Maddon now. Greater than something, the staff wants to understand how a lot the sport has modified since 2015. In a day and age when everyone seems to be hitting residence runs, is it actually value it to doubtlessly eradicate a baserunner whereas including an out to your inning, taking away an opportunity at a multirun homer? The reply isn’t any, and Maddon ought to act accordingly. Station-to-station is not all that unhealthy in 2019.

“We’re not adequate to offer 4 outs or make careless errors on the basepaths,” Epstein stated.

The Cubs do not have their finest on-base guys on the high of the lineup.

Maddon modified up his lineup not too long ago, however aside from batting Kris Bryant third — the place he is extra snug — it nonetheless does not really feel proper. Sure, the Cubs gained two video games with Kyle Schwarber hitting leadoff and Javy Baez second, however that streak ended shortly within the Cubs’ final recreation earlier than the break, a Three-1 loss to the White Sox.

“We’re not taking part in in a manner that’s consultant of who we’re. It is gone on for some time. We’re all searching for solutions.”

Cubs president Theo Epstein

What number of groups, not to mention contenders, start video games with a .320 on-base man adopted by a .324 participant? Transferring Bryant to 3rd was a sensible transfer. It must be adopted up by placing on-base threats in entrance of him. That may very well be anybody from Anthony Rizzo and even catcher Willson Contreras. Since Bryant himself is an on-base machine, Baez ought to bat fourth or fifth to wash up all these guys who’re good at getting on.

On a staff that hits simply .249 with runners in scoring place, why would a .317 hitter in that class hit second? In Maddon’s protection, he stated he wasn’t married to the lineup, however the sooner he alters it, the higher.

Aspect observe: It would not harm if the entrance workplace discovered a greater on-base risk from outdoors the group. Whereas many are centered on Kansas Metropolis Royals second baseman Whit Merrifield, he’ll carry a hefty price ticket. A participant like Toronto Blue Jays infielder Eric Sogard will not. The Cubs had been involved in him through the offseason, in accordance with sources, however signed Daniel Descalso as an alternative. Sogard has a .372 on-base share within the leadoff spot this season after signing a minor league deal this previous winter. He’d be value a flier and should not value practically as a lot as Merrifield.

The Cubs have the second-worst fielding share within the NL.

Everyone knows fielding share generally is a deceptive stat, however the Cubs have made manner too many sloppy errors — to not point out psychological errors as effectively. And typically the psychological ones result in bodily ones. Here is Epstein’s want for the second half:

“Enjoying good baseball, taking part in heads-up baseball, eliminating a number of the sloppiness. Enjoying in a manner all the blokes could be happy with. If we begin taking part in that manner, the outcomes will care for themselves.”

That is, and must be, a Maddon power: creating an atmosphere the place gamers can simply play with out feeling the strain to do an excessive amount of. It is the one reply with regard to gifted gamers in relation to the sloppiness. Attempting to make two outs as an alternative of 1, overthrowing a cutoff man, making outs on the basepaths. These are traits of gamers who’re urgent. That is on the supervisor to alleviate.

“We’re additionally engaged with Joe and the teaching workers, looking for methods to get extra out of this group and play higher,” Epstein stated.

Utilizing the fitting relievers in the fitting spots has been a problem for Joe Maddon and the Cubs this season. AP Photograph/Nam Y. Huh

The shaky bullpen hasn’t been helped by utilization selections.

Like every supervisor, Maddon is usually second-guessed for his bullpen selections, however his points do not contain when to tug a starter and when to not — a preferred subject on social media and sports activities speak radio. All managers are rolling the cube with these selections. It is extra vital to know who his finest relievers are and to deploy them accordingly. The Cubs don’t have any margin for error right here.

For instance, Maddon’s misuse of righty Brandon Kintzler has value the staff video games. Kintzler’s efficiency throughout all conditions has been incredible, resulting in a 1.98 ERA whereas stranding inherited runners 91% of the time. However till considerably not too long ago, he has been used as simply one other reliever — pitching in low-leverage conditions simply as usually as Brad Brach, who has a 6.11 ERA.

Maddon could declare he is put Kintzler in conditions to succeed, however he does not have the luxurious of selecting and selecting when to make use of a reliever who’s pitching that effectively, particularly contemplating his bullpen is not as deep because it as soon as was. Ensuring his high relievers can be found, on as many days because the Cubs want them, must be a precedence for Maddon within the second half.

All of it comes all the way down to Joe.

The entrance workplace can declare they’re all in it collectively, however how a lot can they actually do? They are not going to meddle contained in the clubhouse. Hoyer and Epstein know higher than to method a participant about his poor play. They will do this with the coaches, but it surely’s as much as the supervisor to proper the ship.

After all, there are different components at play right here, because the instances the Cubs have performed their worst baseball in recent times are once they’ve been pressured to play essentially the most. Even of their championship 2016 season, the Cubs stunk up the place throughout a stretch of 24 video games and not using a day without work from June 17 to July 10. Late final season, they reported to the park 30 consecutive days, they usually subsequently squandered their division lead. These are info, not opinions.

This season, the Cubs simply completed a string of 50 video games in 52 days, which included 29 video games in June. They had been the one Nationwide League staff to play that many. A lighter schedule — the Cubs open the second half at residence with 9 video games in 10 days, for instance — ought to assist make Maddon’s job simpler.

However he has to do the remaining, starting with the understanding that he is not main the 2016 Cubs. As Epstein famous, the staff simply is not adequate to beat sloppy play. Armed with that data, Maddon must handle them accordingly.

His job will depend on it.

In any other case, the tip will come only a few flooring above his new restaurant, Maddon’s Publish, the place Epstein’s and Hoyer’s workplaces sit. They will finally have a choice to make on Maddon. He must make it a tougher one. He has 72 video games to do it.

“If we begin taking part in our model of baseball, a heads-up model of baseball that we play after we’re at our greatest, then issues ought to care for themselves,” Epstein stated.