How Dos Anjos’ quantity may very well be the distinction in opposition to Edwards

Rafael dos Anjos averted the primary three-fight shedding streak of his profession with a gritty fourth spherical submission over Kevin Lee in Could. Within the course of, he held on to his place because the UFC’s No. Four-ranked contender within the UFC welterweight division. With a view to stay within the dialog as a future challenger to champion Kamaru Usman, Dos Anjos might want to defeat one other younger prospect this weekend as he faces Leon Edwards on Saturday (ESPN, 6 p.m. ET).

Edwards, aka “Rocky”, has been preventing within the UFC since 2014 and is at present using a seven-fight profitable streak, which has lifted him to No. 12 within the UFC’s welterweight rankings. Throughout his run he is developed a conservative fashion that has carried him to a number of resolution victories, and Edwards will face a critical check of how that fashion contrasts with Dos Anjos’ throughout recreation.

WIth that in thoughts, the next statistical classes may very nicely spotlight how these variations may find yourself being the deciding think about how the battle performs out.

Hanging differential

Saturday’s UFC Struggle Evening card in San Antonio will function two welterweights aiming to get into the title image and the subsequent check for ex-NFL star Greg Hardy. Rafael Dos Anjos, who snapped a two-fight skid in Could, and Leon Edwards, a winner of seven straight bouts, will meet in the primary occasion. Hardy additionally might be on the primary card as he takes on Juan Adams.

UFC Struggle Evening: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards
• Saturday, San Antonio
• Prelims: ESPN 6 p.m. ET
• Predominant card: ESPN 9 p.m. ET

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Dos Anjos (25-11, 5 KOs, 10 submissions) has expanded and diversified his general MMA recreation since he first joined the UFC in 2008 — however he’s nonetheless a striker at coronary heart. Throughout his UFC profession, he has landed Three.6 vital strikes per minute, which is above common for ranked welterweights (Three.23). Regardless of stable offense, although, Dos Anjos has proven some defensive liabilities at instances as he absorbs Three.25 strikes per minute. Resulting from these defensive shortcomings, Dos Anjos’ putting differential, which is measured by vital strikes landed per minute minus vital strikes absorbed per minute, at present stands at plus-Zero.35.

Edwards’ putting differential within the UFC has been barely higher, at plus-Zero.49. Despite the fact that each fighters have related differentials, they arrive at them by way of drastically completely different putting kinds. Whereas Dos Anjos excels by way of offense, Edwards has been in a position to separate himself from others within the division together with his protection, with the second finest strike absorption charge amongst ranked UFC welterweights. Edwards absorbs only one.86 vital strikes per minute, which is behind solely champion Kamaru Usman (1.6). Nonetheless, in the case of efficient offensive output, he comes up quick. Edwards lands solely 2.35 vital strikes per minute, which solely places him forward of submission specialist Demian Maia (1.71) and Ben Askren, who has did not land a single vital strike in two UFC fights.

Over the course of his UFC profession, Edwards (17-Three, 6 KOs, Three submissions) has been at his finest when he is ready to decelerate the tempo of the battle and outland his opponents. That may possible be his technique in opposition to Dos Anjos. Nonetheless, if Dos Anjos, the previous champion, is ready to management distance and get to his putting, he ought to have a serious benefit.

Hanging output

Edwards’ lack of putting offense is not as a consequence of a technical deficiency. He lands 49% of his vital strike makes an attempt, in truth, which ties him with former UFC champion Tyron Woodley for third-best putting accuracy among the many UFC’s prime 15 ranked welterweights. He merely doesn’t throw them with very a lot quantity. Throughout his UFC profession, he has tried solely Four.76 vital strikes per minute, and his makes an attempt charge have been beneath 5 per minute in six of his 11 fights.

Dos Anjos lands 45% of his vital makes an attempt, however because of his larger putting output he scores together with his strikes rather more persistently. He has tried 7.86 vital strikes per minute throughout his UFC profession. Dos Anjos’ skill to battle with a excessive putting output is definitely an important factor of his fashion. Since becoming a member of the promotion in 2008, he has tried eight.58 vital strikes in his victories, however solely 6.eight in his losses.

Despite the fact that Dos Anjos clearly has the sting by way of quantity, Edwards may probably take him out of his recreation by limiting that quantity. For a lot of of Dos Anjos’ opponents, that has proved to be a troublesome process. Nonetheless, Edwards has been profitable at limiting opponents up till this level in his UFC profession.

If Leon Edwards can management the takedown battle, he’ll have a determined benefit over Rafael dos Anjos and an opportunity to impose his fashion of battle. Per Haljestam/USA TODAY Sports activities

Takedowns

The wrestling side of this battle is maybe one of the vital attention-grabbing variables heading into Saturday night time. Each fighters have stable takedown numbers and have relied on their grappling to win troublesome fights. On the identical time, the numbers additionally level to defensive liabilities for each of them.

Dos Anjos has landed 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC profession, and as soon as on the bottom he has landed 195 vital floor strikes and notched Zero.7 submission makes an attempt per 15 minutes. Regardless of that success, he has surrendered 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and has had actual bother with wrestling-based fighters.

Edwards lands solely 31% of his takedown makes an attempt, however he nonetheless averages 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes of battle time. He has landed at the least one takedown in six of his previous seven fights. Regardless of offensive wrestling success, he nonetheless has allowed his opponent to land 1.9 takedowns per 15 minutes. The fighter who is ready to win the takedown battle could have a determined benefit on this contest. Dos Anjos appears to have the slight edge, each by way of touchdown takedowns and avoiding being taken down. On prime of that, he has confronted the more durable wrestlers within the division of late in Usman, Colby Covington and Kevin Lee. Excluding these fights, his profession takedowns allowed per 15 minutes charge falls from 1.86 all the way down to 1.01.

% of scheduled time

Since Edwards is at his finest when he is ready to decelerate the tempo of a battle, he spends a number of time within the cage. Throughout his UFC profession, his fights have lasted 90% of his scheduled time, which means that whereas his 11 fights may have lasted a most of 175 minutes, Edwards has fought for 158 minutes and eight seconds. Eight of his 11 fights within the UFC have gone to resolution and two of his three finishes got here within the closing spherical of the battle — together with one battle that ended one second earlier than the ultimate horn. The lone outlier got here in Edwards’ first profession UFC victory, a knockout in opposition to Seth Baczynski simply eight seconds into their battle in April 2015.

Edwards has been scheduled to battle for 25 minutes as soon as in his UFC profession, and in that bout he took residence a five-round resolution victory over Donald Cerrone.

Dos Anjos not solely has much more expertise in 25-minute fights, however he’s additionally a greater finisher than Edwards, with 4 KO wins and 4 submission victories within the UFC. Nonetheless, that is over the course of 27 profession UFC fights and Dos Anjos has seen his fair proportion of selections as nicely, preventing 73% of his scheduled cage time within the UFC. 9 of his previous 13 fights have been scheduled for 25 minutes, and dos Anjos has gone the complete distance in 5 of these bouts.

On one hand, it’s potential that Edwards’ skill to handle a battle on the way in which to a call victory means he could have a bonus in an extended battle. Then once more, there’s a huge distinction between a 15-minute battle and a championship-length battle. Edwards’ lack of expertise in longer fights in addition to his seeming lack of ending skill will possible outcome within the battle swinging in the direction of Dos Anjos if the bout reaches the championship rounds.