Coastal preview: Prepare for extra chaos and unpredictability
Invoice ConnellyESPN
It’s a must to give the ACC Coastal this: It is not boring. It hasn’t been all that good both, thoughts you — its champion hasn’t received the convention title sport since 2010. In eight years, extra Coastal champs have completed 50th or worse in S&P+ (three) than have completed within the prime 20 (two). Nonetheless, when there is not any dominant group, a minimum of you find yourself with unpredictability. In 5 of the previous six seasons, a group predicted fourth or worse within the preseason ACC media ballot received the division. Final 12 months’s champ, Pitt, was picked fifth. Virtually something can occur right here — besides what’s truly speculated to.
That makes this season notably intriguing as a result of, nicely, nothing is “speculated to” occur. Miami will seemingly be the preseason division favourite, however we nonetheless do not know if the Hurricanes have a quarterback, and it will be arduous for something past “Georgia Tech, division champ” to shock us a lot. So … congrats upfront to the Yellow Jackets.
A fast reminder on terminology: S&P+ is the tempo- and opponent-adjusted effectivity measure I created at Soccer Outsiders in 2008.
Groups are listed beneath so as of S&P+ projections. Click on right here for the ACC Atlantic preview.
Leap to a group:
Miami | Virginia Tech | Virginia | Pittsburgh
North Carolina | Duke | Georgia Tech
2018 report and rankings: 7-6 (No. 27 in S&P+, No. 27 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: Eight.7 wins (No. 19)
2019 FPI projection: Eight.2 wins (No. 27)
Power: Havoc. Manny Diaz oversaw probably the most havoc-friendly, TFLs-heavy protection within the nation final season. The Hurricanes had been first in total sack charge, third in stuff charge (run stops at or behind the road) and first in havoc charge (complete tackles for loss, passes defensed and compelled fumbles divided by complete performs).
They lose just a few high-level disruptors however nonetheless have finish Jonathan Garvin, linebackers Shaquille Quarterman and Michael Pinckney and cornerback Trajan Bandy, they usually added Virginia Tech finish Trevon Hill. They’re nonetheless going to spend so much of time in opponents’ backfields, even when Diaz is head coach as an alternative of DC.
2 Associated
Weak point: The ahead cross. Miami’s protection ranked sixth in passing marginal effectivity final season. That might have meant way more had Miami’s offense not ranked 115th.
New QBs coach and offensive coordinator Dan Enos may have a heckuva talent corps on his arms (working again DeeJay Dallas, receiver Jeff Thomas, Buffalo switch Ok.J. Osborn and the newest batch of blue-chippers). However that issues provided that a younger QB of selection — be it Ohio State switch Tate Martell, part-time 2018 starter N’Kosi Perry or redshirt freshman Jarren Williams — offers competence. Oh, and if a newly redesigned offensive line can defend him.
Alternative: Life within the ACC Coastal. The Canes are projected 19th in S&P+ and 27th in FPI. That might be good for about sixth or seventh within the SEC West and fifth within the Large Ten East, nevertheless it’s the perfect within the Coastal. Plus, maybe the 2 greatest division threats (Virginia and Virginia Tech) have to come back to Miami.
After the season opener in opposition to Florida, S&P+ initiatives Miami as a minimum of a slight favourite in each regular-season sport thereafter. That is with all of the QB points. Determine how one can be competent behind middle, and this group would possibly run away with the division.
Menace: Defensive depth. Protection might be going to be this group’s engine, and regardless of the star energy nonetheless atop the depth chart, it needs to be famous that Miami misplaced three of final season’s prime 5 linemen and 4 of six defensive backs. There is a steadiness between fostering an aggressive mentality and changing into dramatically all or nothing. With simply a few accidents, Miami may discover itself fielding a younger, glitchy and big-play-prone protection.
2018 report and rankings: 6-7 (No. 55 in S&P+, No. 55 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: Eight.Three wins (No. 30)
2019 FPI projection: Eight.Four wins (No. 32)
Power: Expertise. What does it take for Bud Foster to subject a mediocre protection? A spectacular cocktail of youth and attrition. The 2018 Hokies’ protection needed to change its prime 5 linebackers from 2017, plus 5 of its prime six defensive backs. 4 starters missed time with damage. Plus, an honest line misplaced finish Trevon Hill to dismissal simply as he appeared like he was prepared for a breakout season.
In faculty soccer, although, once you take care of a season of huge attrition similar to that, you in all probability reap the advantages the following 12 months. Seventeen Hokies recorded double-digit tackles final season, and 15 are again in Blacksburg this fall. The protection is loaded with sophomores and juniors as an alternative of freshmen and sophomores, and after nose-diving to 77th in defensive S&P+, the Hokies ought to anticipate to rebound into a minimum of the highest 40.
The Hokies have 4 of final season’s prime 5 cross targets again, together with Damon Hazelton. Brian Utesch/Icon Sportswire
The offense, by the way in which, boasts excellent expertise within the passing sport. Senior quarterback Ryan Willis took over for the injured Josh Jackson early in 2018 and was a minimum of respectable, and he has 4 of final season’s prime 5 cross targets again, together with big-play weapons Damon Hazelton and Tre Turner.
Weak point: Large performs. Opponents had been in all probability making extra of them than Tech was final season. In 13 video games, Tech loved 27 beneficial properties of 30-plus yards, 69th in FBS. However the protection allowed 42. Solely Georgia State and UConn allowed extra. Large performs produce straightforward factors, and Tech’s dreadfully younger and glitch-prone secondary made positive that opponents scored less difficult factors than VT did.
Alternative: A delicate early schedule. Tech begins the season at Boston Faculty, which is not a gimme by any stretch, however the Hokies are nonetheless seemingly favorites. In accordance with S&P+, they’re double-digit favorites in 4 of the 5 video games that observe. After final season’s considerably bitter 6-7 season, Tech must be 6-1 or 5-2, with bowl eligibility all however clinched, when the Nov. 2 journey to Notre Dame pops up on the schedule. Optimistic vibes.
Menace: Each S&P+ and FPI grade three Coastal groups forward of the pack: Miami, Virginia Tech and Virginia. The Hokies should play at each Miami and UVA. Granted, the final time UVA beat its in-state rival, George W. Bush was in his first time period. However that is nonetheless fairly daunting.
2018 report and rankings: Eight-5 (No. 42 in S&P+, No. 42 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 7.6 wins (No. 41)
2019 FPI projection: 7.Four wins (No. 43)
Power: Cross protection. In his 14 seasons as a head coach at BYU and Virginia, Bronco Mendenhall groups have ranked within the Def. S&P+ prime 40 eight occasions. His Cavaliers improved to 31st final season, and there is not any motive to suppose their progress will cease this fall. The cross rush wants a little bit of retooling, however a lot of the fundamental items in run protection are again, and the secondary could possibly be terrifying.
The first motive for that: Bryce Corridor. Corridor as soon as signed with UVA over provides from the likes of Coastal Carolina and New Hampshire, however he has changed into one of many nation’s finest cornerbacks. Corridor defensed (intercepted or broke up) 24 passes final season, and junior Darrius Bratton added one other seven. With studs on the skin, defensive coordinator Nick Howell can have some enjoyable with safeties Joey Blount and Brenton Nelson. UVA was seventh in completion charge allowed and 17th in passing marginal effectivity in 2018. Count on these numbers to remain the identical or enhance.
Virginia’s Bryce Corridor (34) has changed into top-of-the-line cornerbacks within the nation. Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports activities
Weak point: Straightforward factors. There are mainly two methods to attain touchdowns: huge performs and robust pink zone execution. Virginia’s offense was fairly environment friendly total (30th in marginal effectivity), however the Cavaliers produced minimal explosive performs (18 beneficial properties of 30-plus yards, 118th in FBS), and their effectivity dried up as they obtained nearer to the aim line. They ranked 91st in success charge contained in the 10 and 121st on first-and-goal. The consequence was numerous pointless subject objectives and a handicap in shut video games (they had been 1-Three in one-possession finishes).
Only a few less difficult factors may have produced a 10-win season.
Alternative: Once more, cross protection. Miami nonetheless won’t have its QB state of affairs discovered. Duke is with out Daniel Jones. Georgia Tech is dramatically altering its offense. North Carolina might be beginning a teenager. Virginia Tech and Pitt are the one two Coastal foes with any kind of stability at quarterback. That makes it sound like a fairly good time to have a dynamite cross protection, yeah?
Menace: A midseason gauntlet. UVA performs solely 5 highway video games, however 4 are available a five-game midseason stretch. The Cavaliers play just one residence sport between Sept. 21 and Nov. 9, and the primary two highway video games in that span come in opposition to Notre Dame and Miami. This set of video games will inform us all the pieces we have to find out about UVA’s depth and resilience.
2018 report and rankings: 7-7 (No. 61 in S&P+, No. 49 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 5.9 wins (No. 59)
2019 FPI projection: 6.7 wins (No. 48)
Power: Random explosions.
Weak point: Inefficiency. We’ll mix these two. The Coastal division was flawed sufficient in 2018 that Pitt was capable of win it regardless of being respectable for under about half the season. Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers went 5-1 between Oct. 6 and Nov. 17 however went simply 2-6 in any other case, shedding huge to Penn State, UCF, Miami and Clemson.
Their full season stats, then, didn’t bely that of a division winner. Actually, the one factor that stood the check of time was the Panthers’ run sport … which is now with out backs Qadree Ollison and Darrin Corridor (mixed 2,357 yards and 21 touchdowns) and four-fifths of final season’s beginning line.
The addition of offensive coordinator and occasional QB guru Mark Whipple may do nice issues for junior Kenny Pickett, nevertheless it’s actually arduous to go from the unhealthy finish of the effectivity and consistency scale (Pitt was 116th in passing marginal effectivity and 87th in completion charge) all the way in which to the great finish in a single offseason.
The addition of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple may do nice issues for Pitt QB Kenny Pickett. Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports activities
The excellent news, although, is that Pitt nonetheless has big-play potential. Main returning receivers Maurice Ffrench and Taysir Mack mixed to common 17.9 yards per catch final season, and each discovered a steadier rapport with Pickett late within the season. Plus, kids similar to working backs Mychale Salahuddin and receiver Shocky Jacques-Louis seem to have high-end athleticism.
Effectivity is the most important predictor of success in soccer, and Pitt in all probability will not have it, however huge performs could make you randomly scary, a minimum of.
Alternative: Defensive tradition. After suits and begins beneath Narduzzi, Pitt’s protection has been far sounder the previous two seasons. With the key elements of a stable cross protection again — pass-rushers Rashad Weaver and Patrick Jones II, corners Dane Jackson and Jason Pinnock, safeties Damar Hamlin and Jazzee Stocker, blue-chip teenager Paris Ford — an honest step ahead is feasible in 2019. This may be an indication that the tradition Narduzzi has been making an attempt to construct is taking maintain, and if that occurs, a repeat within the Coastal is not notably far-fetched.
Menace: The snowball impact. Pitt’s schedule is not horrible by any means — the Panthers keep away from Clemson, Florida State and NC State in cross-division play and get Miami and Virginia at residence. Nonetheless, they’ve just one positive win on the schedule (Delaware), and they’re, per S&P+, projected underdogs in seven video games. Early residence losses to UVA and UCF may set off fairly a difficult fall.
2018 report and rankings: 2-9 (No. 88 in S&P+, No. 77 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 5.1 wins (No. 61)
2019 FPI projection: 5.Four wins (No. 54)
Power: A doubtlessly nice run sport. Granted, new offensive coordinator Phil Longo likes to throw the ball as a lot as attainable, but when he chooses to adapt a bit to guard a freshman quarterback — both true freshman Sam Howell or certainly one of two redshirt freshmen (Cade Fortin or Jace Ruder) — this run sport could possibly be a pleasant asset.
The RB trio of Antonio Williams, Michael Carter and Javonte Williams returns after combining for 1,325 yards (6.1 per carry), and the road boasts 5 gamers with beginning expertise, together with two-year beginning deal with Charlie Heck.
Antonio Williams could possibly be a part of an impressive working sport for North Carolina. Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire
Weak point: A doubtlessly terrible run protection. UNC was at occasions profitable in cross protection final season, however the run protection was an abomination from begin to end. The Heels gave up a minimum of Four yards on 50% of non-sack carries (110th in FBS) and stuffed opponents at or behind the road simply 16% of the time (105th).
Accidents and depth had been an enormous downside for the entrance seven final season, however with six 2018 contributors gone from the road and linebacking corps, you may’t routinely assume that this 12 months’s unit goes to be any deeper. Inventive new defensive coordinator Jay Bateman ought to have numerous enjoyable with nickel Trey Morrison and the DBs, however he’d have extra enjoyable if opponents truly needed to cross.
Alternative: The aspect of shock. Say what you’ll concerning the Mack Brown rent — and I’ve — however this group boasts numerous expertise, and Brown’s workers appears to own a great quantity of younger, inventive vitality. UNC’s schedule is brutal out of the gates, with video games in opposition to South Carolina and Miami (each projected within the prime 30), adopted by a visit to Wake Forest and visits from Appalachian State and Clemson.
An Zero-5 begin is on the desk, however an optimist would possibly say principally unscoutable UNC group may pull off an upset of the Gamecocks or the Hurricanes, then experience confidence to toss-up wins over Wake and Appalachian State. As anticipated, Brown is recruiting nicely to date, and his first Heels group will a minimum of have an opportunity at a Three-1 begin and respectable hype heading into the Clemson sport. That would seal the take care of just a few extra recruits, even when actuality strikes later within the season.
Menace: The aspect of shock is more durable to spring with a freshman QB. That in all probability goes with out saying.
2018 report and rankings: Eight-5 (No. 51 in S&P+, No. 43 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 5.Four wins (No. 65)
2019 FPI projection: 5.Three wins (No. 56)
Power: Tilting the sector. It wasn’t probably the most thrilling life, however Duke’s largest statistical benefit in 2018 got here primarily from subject place. The Blue Devils loved a bonus of 5.5 yards per drive over their opponents, and it was instrumental in two shut wins and final season’s Eight-5 report.
Higher but, they achieved this benefit in a fairly replicable method. Quarterback Daniel Jones, now with the New York Giants, did not submit stats that his alternative (in all probability senior Quentin Harris) cannot replicate. He merely caught as much as the chains on second-and-long, then transformed third-and-medium. Even when Duke ended up punting, it was normally after a few first downs. On protection, the Blue Devils would both get a fast cease or hand over factors and take over after kickoff. Voila! Sustainable subject place benefit!
Will Quentin Harris have the ability to replicate Daniel Jones’ stats at quarterback for Duke? Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports activities
Weak point: A entrance six that does not push again. Think about how profitable the Blue Devils may have been if that they had anyone of their entrance six who may make key performs at key occasions. Duke compelled passing downs nicely however ranked simply 129th in passing downs sack charge, giving opposing QBs time to search out an open man. The Blue Devils additionally bombed within the pink zone: They had been 129th in success charge allowed inside their very own 10 and 128th on first-and-goal.
This was a fairly younger and banged-up unit, although. The highest two linebackers had been damage so much, and there have been 5 freshmen and sophomores among the many prime seven tacklers on the road. Growth from ends Victor Dimukeje and Chris Rumph II may remedy the pass-rush downside, a minimum of.
Alternative: Highway maturity. Duke went Four-2 on the highway final season, with losses solely to the 2 ACC division champions. The Blue Devils received at Wake Forest and North Carolina in 2017 too. They have a tendency to play with maturity and management. That is good as a result of they face numerous highway toss-ups this season: MTSU, Virginia Tech, Virginia, UNC and Wake Forest. Go Three-2 or Four-1 in these video games, they usually’re seemingly nonetheless within the division race nicely into November. (Go 1-Four, and they may not make a bowl.)
Menace: A lot offensive turnover. A scarcity of continuity within the passing sport is a powerful predictor of drop-off, and Duke has completely no continuity. Jones’ manufacturing might need been replaceable, however each he and final season’s prime 4 targets are gone. The run sport is skilled and doubtlessly explosive, a minimum of.
2018 report and rankings: 7-6 (No. 74 in S&P+, No. 39 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: Three.7 wins (No. 89)
2019 FPI projection: Three.7 wins (No. 82)
Power: The bottom sport. New Tech head coach Geoff Collins introduced offensive coordinator Dave Patenaude with him from Temple. Patenaude appeared to adapt fairly nicely to what his personnel needed to supply, passing the ball fairly a bit final season as a result of, nicely, Temple was higher at passing than working.
Patenaude’s first Tech offense might be higher at working. That’s nearly assured. The QB of selection (passer Lucas Johnson? Possibility leftover Tobias Oliver? Redshirt freshman James Graham? True freshman Jordan Yates?) goes to be inexperienced, coping with an enormous change in system going from Paul Johnson’s possibility assault to this or each.
The Yellow Jackets are nonetheless going to have Jordan Mason, Jerry Howard and Nathan Cottrell within the backfield, although. This trio of backs mixed for 1,585 yards (6.1 per carry) and 16 touchdowns final season.
Which quarterback will Geoff Collins name on to guide Georgia Tech in his first season as head coach? AP Picture/John Bazemore
Weak point: Change. A lot change. Not often will a group bear as a lot transition as Tech is experiencing this offseason. Clearly, going from choice to non-option will all the time be a fairly large jolt in and of itself, however Tech will even be coping with a quarterback change on offense and the lack of final season’s prime 4 linemen, prime linebacker and three of 5 defensive backs. Collins is an lively man with a inventive streak, however there’s going to be numerous experimentation — an excessive amount of, maybe, to additionally subject a great group.
Alternative: Low expectations. S&P+ initiatives Tech to fall to 89th this season, FPI to 82nd. Each methods undertaking Three.7 wins, which is fairly jarring for a program that has received fewer than 5 video games in a season simply as soon as previously 24 years. However coaches love taking part in the “no person believes in us!” card, and Collins’ vitality and willingness to throw stuff on the wall and see what sticks may produce a unfastened, pleasant group able to an upset or two.
Menace: Morale. The season begins with a Week 1 ritual sacrifice at Clemson. Sustaining composure after that may be troublesome, and transferring on rapidly might be vital, as the 2 almost definitely wins on the schedule (USF and The Citadel) are available Weeks 2 and three. Lose both of these, and also you’re taking a look at a protracted slog of a season, one by which “creativity” and “willingness to attempt various things” flip into “we now have completely no concept what would possibly work.”