Is Evan Engram worthy of inclusion in high tier at tight finish?
Andre SnellingsESPN
Evan Engram is constantly the fourth tight finish off the board in fantasy drafts, however there is a massive hole between him and the top-tier of Travis Kelce (14.eight ADP, $40.7 common public sale worth), Zach Ertz (27.zero ADP, $27.7 AAV) and George Kittle (29.1 ADP, $26.7 AAV). Engram’s ADP of 53.four and AAV of $7.9 lag effectively into the subsequent tier, which incorporates O.J. Howard (65.7 ADP, $6.2 AAV) and Hunter Henry (68.5 ADP, $5.eight AAV). The overall draft technique for this season, with regard to tight ends, has been to both decide one of many top-three tight ends early or wait and draft a good finish a lot afterward.
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Is that this an correct valuation of Engram? Is he merely the very best of the draft-me-later tight ends? Or ought to he, as a substitute, be the fourth member of the highest tier and thus a giant worth as a mid-round decide? Let’s discover.
Engram was a first-round decide within the 2017 NFL draft, and solely 4 tight ends throughout the previous decade produced extra receiving yards throughout their first two NFL seasons than Engram’s 1,299 (Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez). And that is regardless of Engram lacking six full video games throughout that stretch because of harm.
A better have a look at the primary two seasons of these 4 tight ends reveals a definite sample of a stable rookie season (common 15 video games performed, 40.Three receptions, 495 yards) adopted by a monster sophomore marketing campaign (common 15.5 video games performed, 89 receptions, 1,231 yards). Engram’s rookie season truly in contrast very favorably, as he grabbed 64 receptions for 722 yards in 15 video games. Nonetheless, his numbers regressed as a sophomore, as he notched solely 45 catches for 577 yards in 11 video games. What occurred?
Two main elements: accidents and Odell Beckham Jr.
Engram fought accidents for a lot of the 2018 season, lastly getting wholesome for the ultimate month of the season. That month occurred to coincide with Beckham sitting out. Listed here are Engram’s splits from the primary three months of the season with Beckham versus from the ultimate month of the season with out him:
First three months: 7 video games, 23 receptions, 257 yards (Three.Three receptions, 36.7 yards per sport)
Last month: four video games, 22 receptions, 320 yards (5.5 receptions, 80.zero yards per sport)
Whereas a month is a small pattern dimension, it’s value nothing that Engram’s wholesome sophomore month sans Beckham had him on a 15.5-game tempo of 85 receptions for 1,240 yards, far more in-line with the 89 receptions and 1,231 yards over 15.5 video games averaged by Kittle, Gronk, Graham and Hernandez as sophomores.
And I do not know when you heard, however the Giants traded Beckham to the Browns this offseason. This is able to have already been purpose for optimism that Engram is likely to be in line for a breakout, however then, instantly after camp opened, Corey Coleman tore his ACL, Sterling Shepard broke his thumb and Golden Tate was suspended for the primary 4 video games of the season for violating the league’s banned substance coverage. The Giants responded to that sudden lack of broad receiver expertise by signing unheralded free brokers T.J. Jones and Amba Etta-Tawo as a substitute of more-accomplished obtainable choices.
Abruptly, the Giants might presumably begin the season with just one participant on the roster moreover Engram who produced greater than 25 receptions final season. Whereas Saquon Barkley is an effective wager to construct on his 91-reception rookie season, the Giants will completely should depend on Engram as a main receiver.
Even after Shepard and Tate return, the Giants will want a No. 1 downfield risk. Shepard and Tate have had most of their success within the slot and using shiftiness to work beneath. The Giants used Engram primarily beneath final season as effectively, as his common goal got here four.9 yards down the sphere per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats (24th amongst tight ends with at the least 30 targets).
Nonetheless, Engram has freakish four.42 pace at 6-foot-Three, 245 kilos that makes him both too quick or too massive for many defenders to stick with on deeper routes. Giants coach Pat Shurmur has hinted that Engram might see extra motion on the surface, saying this week, “I feel he is obtained broad receiver traits,” and “we truly use him in a indifferent function, or what would look like a large receiver function.”
The most important query mark for Engram getting into this season appears to be his potential to remain wholesome. As ESPN NFL Nation Giants reporter Jordan Raanan famous, the Giants had been already managing Engram’s workload on the second day of coaching camp. This after he sat out all 7-on-7 or 11-on-11 drills throughout June minicamp. After all, whereas this does converse to Engram’s harm threat, it additionally may very well be taken as a constructive for Engram’s potential that the staff is doing all that it might to make sure that he stays wholesome and primed for the upcoming season.
Engram’s 2019 worth
The Giants will enter the season with main receiving holes. One of the best particular person to fill these holes is already on the roster, a first-round decide from two years in the past whose distinctive mix of dimension and pace make him a great downfield risk. Engram’s manufacturing throughout his first two seasons compares favorably with the best tight ends within the NFL over the previous decade, and he has demonstrated the flexibility to place up monster numbers when wholesome and taking part in with out the since-departed Odell Beckham. Add in accidents and suspensions which have the Giants at the moment going through the beginning of the common season with out their high three broad receivers, and Engram seems poised for an explosive season if he can keep wholesome.
Whereas Kelce, Ertz and Kittle have the confirmed monitor document to assist their standing as an elite tier of their very own, Engram completely has the upside to hitch that tier this season. And whereas I’d take these massive three tight ends over Engram straight up, when it comes to draft worth I would relatively have Engram within the sixth spherical than a type of others within the second. The truth is, Engram would possibly simply be the very best mixture of worth and upside on the tight finish place in fantasy drafts this season.