Inside Aristides Aquino’s superb record-setting month

One month in the past, few baseball followers outdoors of prospect hounds or common followers of the Louisville Bats had heard of Cincinnati Reds outfielder Aristides Aquino. That is not a criticism. Aquino had made some minor waves on prospect lists a couple of years in the past, however after hitting .216 at Double-A in 2017 and .240 whereas repeating the extent in 2018, he had fallen off the radar.

In reality, for 24 hours final offseason, any staff may have signed Aquino. He had appeared in a single recreation for the Reds in August and struck out in his lone plate look however wasn’t known as again up when rosters expanded in September. On Nov. 30, the Reds non-tendered Aquino, needing house on their 40-man roster for different strikes. The Reds let him know they needed to convey him again, however he was technically a free agent and will have signed with some other staff.

“Once you take a man off the roster, you’re uncovered,” Reds basic supervisor Nick Krall advised John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer earlier this month. “We advised him we have been going to take him off, however we additionally expressed, ‘Hey, we wish to convey you again.’ It was fairly fast. We signed him that evening.”

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Even then, it was only a minor league deal, which meant the Reds uncovered Aquino within the Rule 5 draft in December. Any staff may have chosen him. No person did. He remained with the Reds, tore it up at Triple-A Louisville for 4 months, and after Yasiel Puig was dealt to the Indians on the commerce deadline, Aquino was known as up Aug. 1.

Fourteen residence runs later, Aquino is most positively on the radar of baseball followers with one of the crucial spectacular debut months in main league historical past. There are nonetheless a few days left in August, however contemplate these totals:

Most residence runs in a single month by a rookie:
Rudy York, August 1937: 17
Mark McGwire, Could 1987: 15
Aaron Choose, September 2017: 15
Aristides Aquino, August 2019: 14

Most residence runs in a calendar month, Reds historical past:
Aristides Aquino, August 2019: 14
Greg Vaughn, September 1999: 14
Frank Robinson, August 1962: 14

Aquino is not a child. He is 25, making his skilled debut with the Reds again in 2011 within the Dominican Summer time League at age 17. He performed two seasons in that league, hitting .188 and .197, which might have meant the tip of huge league desires for a lot of prospects, however the Reds preferred Aquino’s energy potential and caught with him. It was a sluggish grind via the minors at first lastly got here collectively at Louisville this season, the place he hit .299/.356/.636 with 28 residence runs in 78 video games.

With the Reds, he has hit even higher, with a .330/.393/.804 line after going Three-for-5 with that 14th residence run in Thursday’s Four-Three loss to the Marlins. Given his measurement and power, the primary guess is perhaps — particularly given among the low batting averages within the minors — that Aquino is a strikeout-prone all-or-nothing slugger who has managed to run into a couple of meatballs his first month within the majors. Truly, his enchancment could be traced partially to slicing down his strikeout charge at the same time as he has confronted more durable pitching:

2017, Double-A: 28.eight%
2018, Double-A: 25.2%
2019, Triple-A: 25.1%
2019, MLB: 23.Four%

The general MLB strikeout charge is 22.eight%, so he is nearly common on this regard. His stroll charge his first month has been 7.5%, only a tick under the MLB common of eight.5%. So he is stable in these vital classes plus he is mashing all these residence runs. All good, proper? Perhaps, or possibly not, as a result of there are some pink flags in Aquino’s recreation that assist determine why it took him so lengthy to achieve the majors.

ESPN’s Buster Olney leads the dialogue of the most recent information and notes round baseball with the sport’s high analysts. Hear

Swing charge
MLB common: 47.Three%
Aquino: 56.6%

Miss charge
MLB common: 25.5%
Aquino: 31%

Chase charge
MLB common: 28.7%
Aquino: 37.eight%

He does chase out of the zone greater than you need, and he does have swing-and-miss in his recreation. Pitchers have not discovered to use that simply but. Perhaps they will not. Aquino’s energy on contact has merely been so spectacular that when he connects, it flies. As you may count on from an aggressive hitter, most of his residence runs have come early within the rely:

Aug. Three, vs. Dallas Keuchel: Zero-Zero changeup (404 toes)

Aug. 6, vs. Jose Suarez: 1-1 fastball (448 toes)

Aug. eight, vs. Cole Hamels: 1-1 changeup (445 toes)

Aug. 9, vs. Yu Darvish: 1-Zero cutter (373 toes)

Aug. 10, vs. Kyle Hendricks: Zero-Zero sinker (344 toes)

Aug. 10, vs. Hendricks: Zero-Zero sinker (385 toes)

Aug. 10, vs. Dillon Maples: 1-2 fastball (452 toes)

Aug. 12, vs. Tanner Rainey: 1-Zero fastball (425 toes)

Aug. 14, vs. Javy Guerra: Zero-1 slider (387 toes)

Aug. 16, vs. Adam Wainwright: 1-Zero cutter (396 toes)

Aug. 17, vs. Miles Mikolas: Zero-Zero slider (408 toes)

Aug. 23, vs. Mitch Keller: 1-Zero slider (401 toes)

Aug. 28, vs. Sandy Alcantara: 2-2 changeup (418 toes)

Aug. 29, vs. Robert Dugger: Zero-1 curveball (393 toes)

Need to see a few of these residence runs? Listed below are his first 9 — in his first 14 profession video games:

Anyway, what is the deal right here? Is Aquino for actual? Like so many gamers in 2019, the juiced ball makes analysis extraordinarily troublesome. At first look, it is easy to attribute Aquino’s enchancment at Triple-A and with the Reds to the ball, extra so than any modifications in his method or maturity.

Plus, as enjoyable as this month has been, it is just one month. Think about the exploits final season of Ryan O’Hearn and Luke Voit, older gamers with little expertise within the majors who tore it up for brief spells:

O’Hearn: 149 AB, .262/.353/.597, 12 HR, 154 OPS+

Voit (with Yankees): 132 AB, .333/.405/.689, 14 HR, 193 OPS+

Aquino: 97 AB, .330/.393/.804, 14 HR, 192 OPS+

O’Hearn was making his debut, and Voit had 124 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2017, however the comparisons are considerably comparable. O’Hearn has been horrible this season and Voit has been superb with a 135 OPS+.

Is Aquino extra O’Hearn or extra Voit? I’d lean towards the latter, even when there’s nothing in his observe report to counsel he is something near a .300 hitter within the majors — not to mention .330. He hasn’t been terrible within the area and he really has had the second-highest high dash pace on the Reds, behind solely Nick Senzel, so there’s some actual athleticism right here. (He is a greater fielder and runner than, say, Franmil Reyes, a younger man with an identical highly effective construct.)

Add it up and I am cautiously optimistic that there is one thing right here — nothing like what we have seen, in fact, however a participant who could be an above-average hitter even when he hits .250. The remainder of the season forecasts from the varied projection techniques are even much less optimistic than .250, however I am undecided they’ve integrated “ball, full of life” into their algorithms.

So possibly Aquino is not a future All-Star. For now, simply benefit from the experience.