25 issues we’re watching in remaining 25 days of MLB common season
I like September, with these excellent late-summer afternoons and funky, nice evenings. The leaves starting to show. The ultimate month of baseball’s playoff drive earlier than the drama and magic of October begins. My one pet peeve: Halloween shows in shops. Can we a minimum of end the common season earlier than we begin getting Halloween shoved down our throats?
As a reminder that the common season nonetheless has loads of necessary issues to decide— and that Halloween continues to be nearly two months away — here is my September particular: 25 questions to think about for the ultimate 25 days of the common season.
1. When will the house run report fall?
Al Davis, the longtime proprietor of the Oakland Raiders, famously as soon as mentioned: “The quarterback should go down, and he should go down arduous.” That is what is going to occur to the single-season house run mark. It would go down and it’ll go down arduous. In 2017, groups hit a mixed 6,105 house runs. Getting into Tuesday, groups had already hit 5,786 house runs. With every workforce averaging 1.40 house runs per sport, which means we’re 114 video games away from breaking the report, which places a projected date of Sept. 11 to interrupt the 2017 complete. It ought to are available one of many early video games, and we now have the Yankees taking part in the Tigers that night time and Matthew Boyd — who leads the majors with 36 house runs allowed — is the scheduled starter for Detroit. Good. DJ LeMahieu will hit the record-setting house run off Boyd within the sixth inning.
2. Will Cubs at Cardinals on the ultimate weekend matter?
Our greatest division race is the Nationwide League Central, the place the Cardinals maintain a three-game lead over the Cubs. The Cubs have not truly been as horrible as everyone seems to be appearing — they went 16-12 in August — however the Cardinals pulled forward by going 16-9 in July and 18-9 in August, with a formidable plus-50 run differential in August. The golf equipment have two sequence remaining, 4 video games at Wrigley Subject on Sept. 19-22 after which the three in St. Louis to finish the season Sept. 27-29.
A 3-game lead at this level is somewhat important, so FanGraphs provides the Cardinals a 63.Four% probability of successful the division in comparison with 35.5% for the Cubs. The Cubs lead the season sequence 7-5. Since July 1, the Cardinals have allowed Three.60 runs per sport whereas the Cubs have allowed Four.40. The bullpen ERAs are much more putting (no shock to Cubs followers); the Cardinals have an MLB-best Three.03 bullpen ERA since July 1 and the Cubs are at Four.28 (coming into Tuesday).
However the Cubs solely have to remain inside three video games for that remaining weekend to matter. Apart from the 2 sequence in opposition to the Cardinals, it is a fairly comfortable schedule in September for the Cubs. I say these remaining three video games will determine the division.
Three. Will we get a three-way tie for the American League wild card?
Certainly one of these years, we’ll get what I prefer to name tiebreaker chaos. We had two tiebreaker video games final season, however these have been each for division titles within the Nationwide League, with the losers each dropping into the wild-card sport. Enjoyable, however a easy decision. Our greatest probability at a minor type of chaos this 12 months might be a three-way tie among the many Rays, Indians and A’s for the 2 AL wild-card spots. Here is how that might get resolved:
2 Associated
• The groups are given A, B and C designations based mostly on head-to-head information. The A’s went 5-1 in opposition to Cleveland and Four-Three in opposition to Tampa Bay, so that they gained each season sequence. The A’s get first alternative on their designation. Tampa Bay went 6-1 in opposition to Cleveland, so the Rays get second alternative.
• Within the tiebreaker situation, Crew A hosts Crew B. The winner of that sport is one wild-card workforce. Membership C would then host the loser of the primary sport to find out the second wild card. I’d assume the A’s would select Crew A — you get to host the primary sport, however in the event you lose you get a second probability. Then in spite of everything that it’s a must to play the wild-card sport.
Acquired all that? Now, if the Crimson Sox storm again to make it a four-way tie, then we’d have two tiebreaker video games, with the winners advancing to the wild-card sport.
Four. Who will end with one of the best general report?
House-field benefit for the World Collection goes to the workforce with one of the best general report, so the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees all have incentive to play arduous down the stretch regardless of comfortable division leads. That does not imply you permit in Justin Verlander to throw a season-high 120 pitches — oops, except he is going for a no-hitter — nevertheless it’s actually an incentive to maintain all three groups targeted (and understand that when the Astros performed the Yankees within the 2017 American League Championship Collection, the house workforce gained all seven video games).
What occurs if the 2 World Collection opponents end with the identical report? The primary tiebreaker is head-to-head report. The Yankees went 2-1 in opposition to the Dodgers, whereas the Dodgers and Astros didn’t meet. The Astros-Dodgers tiebreaker could be report inside their division. The Astros are 42-15 in opposition to the AL West and the Dodgers are 40-22 in opposition to the NL West, in order that tiebreaker would go to the Astros. (Looks as if the tiebreaker must be the league with the higher report in interleague play, however I assume that makes an excessive amount of sense.)
Observe: I am not suggesting that these are the one three groups that may attain the World Collection. Any of the playoff groups can attain the World Collection! However one of the best general report will nearly actually be one in all these three groups.
5. Will Ronald Acuna Jr. get to 40/40?
That is 40 house runs and 40 steals in the event you’re not hip along with your baseball combo language. Solely 4 gamers have reached each totals in the identical season:
Jose Canseco, 1988: 42 house runs, 40 steals
Barry Bonds, 1996: 42 house runs, 40 steals
Alex Rodriguez, 1998: 42 house runs, 46 steals
Alfonso Soriano, 2006: 46 house runs, 41 steals
Acuña is at 36 house runs and 33 steals, so he’ll need to activate the jets a bit to get to 40 steals — and with Atlanta holding a cushty lead within the NL East, the Braves may put just a few extra cease indicators on his base stealing to keep away from the harm danger earlier than the playoffs start. A 40/40 season is an enormous particular person incentive, nonetheless, so let’s examine what occurs there. I checked the opposite 4 guys and in the event that they ran extra in September:
• Canseco: 6 SB, Three CS, according to his month-to-month averages. He acquired to 40 with seven video games remaining.
• Bonds: 15 SB, Four CS. Bonds clearly made the concerted effort to get 40 steals, operating wild in September. He month-to-month totals have been 7, 6, 6, 2, Four after which 15, together with 11 in his remaining 12 video games. His 40th steal got here in Sport No. 161 (he sat out the season finale). Sure, no matter Bonds wished to do, it appeared like he might do it.
• Rodriguez: A-Rod was already near 40 coming into September and swiped eight luggage the ultimate month.
• Soriano: He stole seven bases the ultimate month.
6. Will Madison Bumgarner and Felix Hernandez pitch their remaining video games for the Giants and Mariners?
Bumgarner continues to be going robust with a 9-Eight report and three.62 ERA. He hasn’t missed a begin all season and ranks amongst league leaders in innings pitched. He turned 30 in August and his strikeout charge has spiked again up after a few seasons the place he missed time with freak accidents — the dirt-bike accident and the damaged hand after getting hit by a line drive. Whereas his Three.62 ERA is a profession excessive, his adjusted ERA+ of 117 is similar as his 116 mark in 2014, the 12 months he had his historic postseason run.
In different phrases, the pending free agent is in line for a pleasant payday. Will the Giants wish to give him one? I might name it a 50-50 proposition. I do not know if Bumgarner would wish to take care of the media blitz of pitching in New York after years of a extra genteel media surroundings in San Francisco, however groups just like the Braves and Rangers appear like prospects. The Giants’ pseudo-contention in 2019 may make them extra prone to re-sign Bumgarner somewhat than undergo an entire rebuild, however do not anticipate one other team-friendly low cost just like the Giants acquired together with his most up-to-date contract.
As for King Felix, there clearly is not a lot left within the tank and his ERA is ready to extend for a fifth consecutive season. The 33-year-old has mentioned he desires to pitch subsequent season and is aware of a powerful end is necessary for producing some curiosity — whether or not from the Mariners or one other workforce. After 15 seasons in Seattle, odds are a spring coaching invite — if he will get one — will come from one other workforce.
7. How will Adam Wainwright end for Cardinals?
Wainwright signed a one-year contract with the Cardinals for 2019 and the shock is that he isn’t solely stayed within the rotation all season however is having his greatest marketing campaign since 2014. That was the ultimate season of a six-year/five-season stretch of dominance (he missed all of 2011 following Tommy John surgical procedure) when he went 92-50 with a 2.83 ERA, 4 occasions ending within the high three of the Cy Younger voting. He hasn’t been the identical since rupturing his Achilles tendon in 2015, however he is been capable of make changes this season that Hernandez hasn’t been capable of in recent times. Wainwright, 38, has been even higher of late (Three.43 ERA over his previous seven begins), so he might very a lot be a part of the Cardinals’ playoff rotation, which means if this certainly is his remaining season, these remaining appearances might come within the postseason, the place he has a Three.03 ERA in 89 innings.
Eight. Who’s the Dodgers’ ace and Sport 1 starter?
For a lot of the season, Hyun-Jin Ryu had been the best starter within the majors, with an ERA that stood at a yes-that’s-correct 1.45 just some weeks in the past. Now he is allowed seven runs in consecutive begins and 18 runs over his previous 14⅔ innings, which leaves Ryu, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw all in competition to begin Sport 1 of the division sequence. Keep in mind, final season it was Buehler who began the division tiebreaker in opposition to the Rockies and Ryu who began Sport 1 of the division sequence.
You may thank a viral “hot-mic” video from a man referred to as Jomboy. Coley Harvey »
Some felt that took some stress off Kershaw — he was now not anticipated to hold the pitching workers — however he blended in some nice begins with a few awful ones, form of his regular October efficiency. Whereas the Sport 1 starter within the division sequence is not essentially the identical man who begins the LCS or the World Collection, the opening sport of that best-of-five sequence is essential. Dave Roberts has a tricky choice to make, however the hottest arm in September most likely has the sting.
9. Will Gavin Lux hit his method onto the Dodgers’ postseason roster?
Lux is by far probably the most intriguing September call-up. The 21-year-old hit .313/.375/.521 at Double-A Tulsa after which pummeled the juiced MLB/Triple-A ball with a .392/.478/.719 line in 49 video games at Oklahoma Metropolis. Then he went 2-for-5 in his Dodgers debut. Roberts mentioned Lux will play second base every single day the remainder of the way in which, as this seems to be like a possible Corey Seager scenario. Seager performed 27 video games the ultimate month for the Dodgers in 2015 and hit .337, incomes a spot for the postseason. Lux will do the identical and the Dodgers ought to decide on taking part in Max Muncy (assuming he is OK when he comes again from his wrist harm) at first base and Lux at second within the playoffs. Do not overthink issues, good guys within the Dodgers entrance workplace. Simply play your greatest gamers.
10. What do the Yankees do with Giancarlo Stanton?
A extra sophisticated scenario lies eastward, the place Stanton has ramped up his baseball actions over the previous week, taking batting follow and taking part in defensive drills. He is had simply 38 plate appearances all season, so there is not a lot time left for Aaron Boone to get him within the lineup and get him some much-needed at-bats. If Stanton returns, it simply provides to the roster crunch. Assuming the Yankees hold 12 pitchers (seemingly, given how they may depend on the bullpen for postseason innings), this may very well be the 13-man position-player roster:
Catchers: Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine
Infielders: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius, Gio Urshela
Outfielders: Aaron Decide, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman, Stanton
Designated hitter: Edwin Encarnacion
Selecting Stanton means leaving off Cameron Maybin, Clint Frazier or the instantly scorching Mike Ford. Maybin has hit very effectively, but when Stanton returns, it’s a must to put him on the roster given his identify and contract. Alternatively, taking part in him might be a chance if he would not get the 50 or 60 at-bats he must prepare. Then if he goes Zero-for-5 with three strikeouts within the first playoff sport, Boone will face numerous stress to not overreact. All that’s down the street, I assume. For now, Stanton has to first get again on the sector and present he is wholesome.
11. What are the opposite key accidents to look at?
A number of different key accidents to look at for returns in September:
• Astros: Carlos Correa, (again stiffness); Ryan Pressly (minor knee surgical procedure in August)
• Braves: Nick Markakis (fractured wrist)
• Brewers: Keston Hiura (hamstring pressure)
• Cubs: Yu Darvish (scratched from most up-to-date begin with forearm tightness)
• Dodgers: Max Muncy (small fracture in wrist); Alex Verdugo (indirect pressure)
• Indians: Corey Kluber (indirect pressure, suffered in first rehab begin after fracture in proper arm); Jose Ramirez (fractured hamate bone, risk of September return slim)
• Mets: Robinson Cano (hamstring, began minor league rehab project)
• Rays: Blake Snell, (left elbow surgical procedure, threw bullpen session Friday); Jose Alvarado (elbow irritation); Yonny Chirinos (finger irritation); Tyler Glasnow (forearm pressure, started minor league rehab); Yandy Diaz (fractured left foot)
• Twins: Byron Buxton (shoulder, activated from injured listing however can solely run and play protection); Kyle Gibson (ulcerative colitis)
• Yankees: Aaron Hicks (flexor pressure in proper arm); Gio Urshela (groin); Dellin Betances (shoulder, lat pressure); Luis Severino (shoulder, lat pressure, started minor league rehab)
12. Can Justin Verlander clinch a second Cy Younger Award?
There is a enjoyable stat, invented by Invoice James, that Baseball-Reference.com tracks referred to as “Award Shares” for MVP and Cy Younger voting. If a participant is a unanimous choice, he will get credit score for 1.Zero award shares. If he will get 50% of the potential factors, he will get Zero.50 award shares. It is a good methodology of monitoring how a participant has fared in MVP and Cy Younger voting. Anyway, here is the fascinating factor about Verlander. He is 11th all time in Cy Younger award shares with Three.40. The 10 gamers forward of him of all gained a minimum of two Cy Younger Awards — truly, all however Roy Halladay have gained a minimum of three. The primary 4 behind him have additionally gained a minimum of two. Verlander, after all, has simply the one, his 2011 Cy Younger/MVP season.
Maintain calm and mash: How the relaxed Twins are rewriting HR-hitting historical past Story »
I do not assume Verlander has essentially been screwed out of an award, though he led the AL in Baseball-Reference WAR in 2012 and 2016 (beside 2011). He completed second within the voting each of these years (in addition to 2018). He misplaced by 4 factors to David Worth in 2012 and 5 factors to Rick Porcello in 2016 (although he had six extra first-place votes than Porcello). So he might simply be going for his fourth Cy Younger as an alternative of his second.
Will his previous shut finishes assist him in 2019? Most likely not. I do not assume voters will give him additional credit score for his previous in the event that they view him as equal with, say, teammate Gerrit Cole. However he won’t need assistance. He enters this remaining stretch main the AL in ERA, wins, innings, WHIP, hits per 9, walks per 9 and strikeout-to-walk ratio, trailing solely Cole in strikeouts. Lance Lynn may lead in FanGraphs WAR and Mike Minor in Baseball-Reference WAR, however Verlander seems to be just like the clear front-runner.
13. Can Cole or Verlander get to 300 strikeouts?
Sure, each have an important probability, with Cole at 266 strikeouts and Verlander at 257. The one pair of teammates to get to 300 was Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling with the 2002 Diamondbacks. Cole is chasing one other report of kinds. With 266 Ok’s in simply 176⅓ innings, he is struck out 38.7% of the batters he is confronted. The only-season report for a starter is Pedro Martinez in 1999 with 37.5%. Martinez’s mark, nonetheless, is extra spectacular when in comparison with the league proportion that 12 months:
1999 American League: 15.7%
2019 American League: 22.5%
No offense to Mr. Cole, however Pedro’s 1999 was on one other degree: 313 Ok’s in 213⅓ innings, 2.07 ERA, 9 house runs allowed, a ridiculous 1.39 FIP. Oh, and a 23-Four report in 29 begins.
14. Can Albert Pujols catch Willie Mays and attain 100 RBIs?
Look, everyone knows Pujols is staggering to the top of his profession. His profession batting common with the Cardinals was .328; he is hit .259 with the Angels and his profession mark is now down a good .300. Within the context of 2019 energy numbers, his 20 house runs and 83 RBIs aren’t significantly spectacular. Nonetheless, he has a slim probability at a few enjoyable milestones. He is seven house runs from tying Mays at 660 for fifth on the all-time listing. With 17 RBIs, he’ll hit the century mark for the 15th time, breaking his tie with Alex Rodriguez at 14 100-RBI seasons.
15. Can Bryan Reynolds win the NL batting title as a rookie?
Solely three rookies since 1901 have gained a batting title, and simply two in MLB historical past: Benny Kauff hit .370 for the 1914 Indianapolis Hoosiers of the Federal League; Tony Oliva hit .323 for the Twins in 1964; and Ichiro Suzuki hit .350 for the Mariners in 2001. Two of these fall beneath the “not fairly the identical factor,” as the standard of play within the Federal League as a real main league may very well be disputed, and Ichiro was already probably the greatest gamers on the earth when he came to visit from Japan at age 27. Reynolds, in the meantime, enters Wednesday seven factors behind the red-hot Anthony Rendon for the NL lead. Reynolds’ present .331 mark could be the very best for a professional rookie since Ichiro and one of the best non-Ichiro rookie common since Ralph Garr’s .343 mark for the Braves in 1971.
16. Does Anthony Rendon have a shot on the NL MVP award?
Talking of Rendon, he hit .394 in August to climb into potential MVP competition behind Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich, a minimum of by the FanGraphs WAR leaderboard:
Bellinger: .311/.414/.658, 44 HRs, 103 RBIs, 106 R, 7.Three WAR
Yelich: .326/.421/.672, 43 HRs, 93 RBIs, 96 R, 7.Zero WAR
Rendon: .337/.417/.639, 32 HRs, 111 RBIs, 103 R, 6.7 WAR
Bellinger and Yelich stay the favorites, however Rendon has a few nuggets in his favor: Bellinger began off scorching and has mainly been a little bit worse every month, whereas Rendon has been constant all season; the Nationals are wanting a minimum of like a wild-card lock and the Brewers may miss the playoffs, which might assist Rendon. With an enormous month from Rendon, it may very well be a good three-way vote.
17. Will Pete Alonso break Decide’s rookie house run report?
The Polar Bear already has damaged Bellinger’s Nationwide League rookie report and the Mets’ franchise report. Subsequent up: Decide’s 52 house runs in 2017. Sitting on 44 after hitting one other on Tuesday, he wants eight to tie and 9 to cross, with 24 video games remaining.
18. Can Aristides Aquino and Yordan Alvarez hold mashing?
In his first month within the majors, all Aquino did was win NL Participant of the Month honors after hitting .320/.391/.767 with 14 house runs and 33 RBIs. What a world we’re dwelling in proper now. In the meantime, Alvarez is hitting .317/.413/.671 with 22 house runs and 19 doubles in 283 plate appearances coming into Tuesday. That is an OPS+ of 180. It is a rookie! Listed below are the very best OPS+ from rookies since 1901 (minimal 300 PAs):
Joe Jackson, 1911: 193
Jose Abreu, 2014: 173
Aaron Decide, 2017: 171
Mike Trout, 2012: 168
Mark McGwire, 1987: 164
Bernie Carbo, 1970: 164
Observe: Jackson had performed elements of three seasons previous to 1911, however had gathered simply 115 at-bats. He could be thought of a rookie by fashionable requirements.
19. Can Rafael Devers or Xander Bogaerts get to 60 doubles?
The Crimson Sox teammates are each sitting on 48 doubles, placing them on tempo for 57 and thus a small probability at 60. Earl Webb’s report of 67 is out of attain, however solely six gamers have hit 60 — all in a window between 1926 and 1936, when doubles have been particularly prevalent. The Cubs’ Nicholas Castellanos is true behind the Boston duo with 47 doubles.
20. Will Mookie Betts rating 150 runs?
How gamers are utilizing uniform numbers to interrupt MLB’s unwritten guidelines. Joon Lee »
Man, Betts is on tempo to attain 145 runs, knock out 79 extra-base hits, publish one thing near .900 OPS, plus he is taking part in his regular nice protection, and it has flown fully beneath the radar as a result of it hasn’t been as otherworldly as his 2018 MVP season. However 150 runs could be completely phenomenal. Since World Warfare II, solely Jeff Bagwell (152 in 2000) and Ted Williams (150 in 1949) have reached that quantity. Heck, 145 could be phenomenal — solely Rickey Henderson, Craig Biggio and Sammy Sosa (all 146) have achieved that since 1946.
21. What number of house runs will the Twins end with?
The Twins have already damaged the single-season report and are on tempo to mash 318. They have already got eight gamers with 20 house runs — the one workforce to do this. C.J. Cron (24), Jonathan Schoop (21) and Jorge Polanco (20) have an opportunity at 25. They want a type of guys to get to 25 to match the 2003 Crimson Sox with six 25-homer guys. In fact, the Twins are targeted on successful the AL Central, however as they hold bashing they’re beginning to draw back from Cleveland.
22. Will the Orioles hit their over/beneath of 59.5?
Because it seems to be just like the Tigers are going to crush the Orioles for the worst report and the primary decide within the 2020 draft — actually, is not it time to institute a draft lottery, or perhaps a extra extreme punishment like in the event you do not win 65 video games, you drop 10 picks within the draft? — let’s examine if the Orioles can get to 60 wins. OK, most likely not. The Orioles are 46-93 after splitting Tuesday’s doubleheader with the Rays, so that they’d need to go 14-9 of their remaining 23 video games to complete 60-102.
Possibly the extra fascinating race is Orioles house runs allowed versus Twins house runs hit: The Orioles are at 270 allowed, the Twins are at 271 hit.
23. Will the Marlins common 10,000 followers per sport?
The Marlins are averaging 9,841 followers per sport, with 10 house video games remaining. The newest workforce to attract fewer than 10,000 per sport was the 2004 Expos — a franchise already set to maneuver to D.C. for 2005. Earlier than that, the 2001 Expos averaged simply 7,935 followers per sport, and the newest non-Montreal groups beneath 10,000 have been the 1985 Pirates (9,199 per sport) and 1985 Indians (Eight,089 per sport). The Marlins should common 11,131 over these remaining 10 house video games to get to a 10,000 common.
24. Can the Mets do something extra Mets-like than blowing a 10-Four lead within the backside of the ninth as they did Tuesday?
No. RIP, 2019 Mets.
25. What is going to Bryce Harper’s remaining stat line appear like?
We finish our listing with the offseason’s largest identify and what has been a surprisingly uninteresting first season for Harper with the Phillies — aside from that memorable walk-off grand slam Aug. 16. It is easy to neglect the Phillies regarded like fairly good early on and have been 33-22 on Could 29, a 97-win tempo. Andrew McCutchen went down for the season just a few days later, the bullpen suffered a string of accidents and the Phillies have simply form of plodded alongside ever since. That is form of how Harper’s season has gone. He is been higher of late (and he is been good within the clutch all season), however he is simply 41st within the majors in wOBA, sandwiched between Gleyber Torres and Edwin Encarnacion. Trailing Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier, Austin Meadows and Yuri Gurriel, amongst others.
Nonetheless, there’s time: not just for the Phillies to salvage a wild card, however for Harper to show an excellent season into a very good one. How a couple of implausible end for Harper?