Protection elective? Cerrone vs. Gaethje a battle of high-paced strikers

The light-weight division will likely be within the highlight as soon as once more this weekend. In Saturday’s fundamental occasion in Vancouver, British Columbia, light-weight contenders Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje will face off in one of the crucial extremely anticipated fights of the yr.

Gaethje brings a number of the most absurd placing stats in MMA historical past into the struggle. Cerrone holds his personal share of UFC information and has all the time been an offensive dynamo. Many anticipate this struggle to be a memorable one, and the numbers actually level in that route.

The next analyzes these numbers and factors to a number of paths to victory for every fighter.

Putting differential

Saturday’s UFC Combat Evening fundamental occasion should not be brief on motion. Justin Gaethje will tackle Donald Cerrone in Vancouver, with a stoppage very doubtless. Gaethje hasn’t had a struggle determined by the judges in 5 years, whereas 12 of Cerrone’s final 15 fights did not go the space.

UFC Combat Evening: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
• Saturday, Vancouver, British Columbia
• Prelims: ESPN+, 5 p.m. ET
• Essential card: ESPN+, eight p.m. ET

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No one with not less than 5 UFC fights has averaged as many vital strikes per minute as Gaethje. By his first 5 bouts within the Octagon, he has landed eight.50 vital strikes per minute, which isn’t solely one of the best charge amongst ranked lightweights, but in addition one of the best charge in UFC historical past.

In some circumstances, he has been capable of overwhelm his opponents with placing quantity. Nevertheless, he achieves this historic placing charge by ignoring protection altogether. Within the UFC, he has absorbed a staggering 10.23 vital strikes per minute. This leaves him with a damaging placing differential of -1.73. The measure, which is calculated by subtracting vital strikes absorbed per minute from vital strikes landed per minute, at present ranks useless final amongst ranked lightweights.

Cerrone lands nowhere close to the amount of Gaethje, however his placing differential can also be close to zero, which highlights his willingness to soak up punishment so long as he is ready to land his personal pictures. For his mixed UFC and WEC profession, he has landed four.35 vital strikes per minute, whereas absorbing four.18 per minute for a placing differential of +zero.17.

Cerrone’s willingness to interact has solely elevated as he has superior in his profession. He has been outlanded by his opponent in six of his previous 10 fights, and he has absorbed 5.18 vital strikes per minute throughout the identical stretch. Regardless of his status as a reckless fighter, his protection was truly rather more stout previous to this era. Earlier than starting this current 10-fight interval, he had been absorbing solely three.80 vital strikes per minute.

If Cerrone chooses to make use of this kind of lax defensive technique towards Gaethje, he might get into lots of bother. Gaethje’s quantity will likely be actually an excessive amount of for Cowboy to beat. Throughout his UFC profession, Gaethje has tried 15.55 vital strikes per minute, which is considerably greater than Cerrone’s 9.29 makes an attempt charge. If each fighters meet within the center and alternate strikes, Gaethje will nearly actually be the one touchdown on the greater charge until Cerrone adjustments his techniques.

Putting energy

Donald Cerrone, proper, has recorded TKOs in 5 of his final seven wins, together with towards Alexander Hernandez in January. AP Photograph/Frank Franklin II

Even when Cerrone finally ends up being badly outlanded by Gaethje, he might nonetheless make an impression along with his placing. Whereas his protection has trailed off in his previous 10 fights, his energy seems to have spiked. For his UFC/WEC profession, Cerrone has landed 25 knockdowns, which equates to a zero.90 knockdowns per 15 minutes of struggle time. His 20 knockdowns landed within the UFC are probably the most within the promotion’s historical past. Nevertheless, eight of these 25 knockdowns have are available in his previous 10 fights. Throughout that span, he has averaged 1.05 per 15 minutes, which is a 29% improve of his knockdown charge in his earlier 32 fights.

With solely 5 UFC fights, the pattern dimension is simply too small to measure Gaethje’s placing energy when it comes to knockdowns. Nevertheless, he has pulled off back-to-back stoppages and scored knockdowns in each fights. Even with out a big sufficient pattern to measure his knockdown charge, it could be ridiculous to say that he lacks the flexibility to complete a struggle with strikes. Throughout his 10-fight World Collection of Combating profession, Gaethje scored stoppages on account of strikes in 9 of these fights, and averaged 1.57 stoppages per 15 minutes of struggle time.

If Gaethje begins to have success along with his quantity placing strategy, Cerrone might hope that his energy will bail him out.

Leg placing

1 Associated

Each Gaethje and Cerrone land a majority of their vital strikes to the pinnacle. Nevertheless, Gaethje is rather more centered on touchdown to a secondary goal. Within the UFC, 35% of his landed vital strikes have come towards his opponents’ legs. That will not appear to be lots, however on account of his excessive total quantity, that proportion equates to three.01 vital leg strikes per minute. Which means Gaethje truly lands extra vital leg strikes on a per-minute foundation than two ranked lightweights, Islam Makhachev (2.10) and Anthony Pettis (2.97), land when it comes to whole vital strikes per minute. Not solely is he a prodigious leg striker, however he additionally doesn’t take up many pictures to the legs. In his 5 UFC fights, he has eaten solely 27 vital leg strikes.

Cerrone has accomplished his fair proportion of placing to the legs over the course of his intensive UFC/WEC profession. Nevertheless, he’s rather more various along with his alternative of secondary goal. He lands 25% of his vital strikes to the legs, with one other 24% touchdown to the physique. Whereas he has not been significantly weak to leg kicks, he has struggled with them lately. In his previous two defeats, coming towards Tony Ferguson and Leon Edwards, he absorbed 1.20 vital leg strikes per minute.

Each Gaethje and Cerrone have had over 80% of their vital strikes come at distance, which suggests the bout will doubtless play out as a standing placing battle. If it does, Gaethje might give himself a bonus by using his quantity leg placing strategy.

Takedowns

Though each fighters do an awesome majority of their placing on the toes, Cerrone has proven occasional curiosity in going for takedowns. Within the UFC and WEC, he has landed 1.22 takedowns per 15 minutes on three.37 makes an attempt. Though he has landed solely 152 vital floor strikes in 42 fights, he has been capable of make an impression along with his grappling. Cerrone averages 1.24 passes per takedown, and he has gained 12 fights through submission.

Gaethje is the one on this struggle who comes from a wrestling background. He was an All-American on the College of Northern Colorado, however he has been a lot much less centered on wrestling since making the transition into MMA. The truth is, he has tried just one takedown in his UFC profession. Defensively he has made strong use of his wrestling as he has stopped 80% of the takedown makes an attempt towards him. Nevertheless, he was taken down in each of his first two fights towards Michael Johnson and Eddie Alvarez.

All indicators level towards an action-packed standing struggle, however Cerrone has been recognized to opportunistically search for takedowns when he feels he has a bonus. Gaethje has proven strong, however not spectacular takedown protection within the UFC. If Cerrone is ready to shock him with a couple of fast pictures, it might find yourself having an affect on the judges if the bout reaches the ultimate bell.