Atlantic preview: Welcome to Clemson’s world
Invoice ConnellyESPN
Successful a nationwide title papers over plenty of cracks. Technically, the ACC Atlantic obtained to boast the champ for the third time in six seasons final fall, however outdoors of Clemson, this was probably the most disappointing division within the nation, primarily as a result of Florida State fielded its worst workforce for the reason that mid-1970s and Louisville fielded its worst workforce for the reason that mid-1990s.
FSU ought to start to bounce again this fall. Louisville may. Syracuse and NC State could have shot at top-30 or top-40 performances. However except for Clemson, the common S&P+ rating on this division was 60.7 and is projected to be 58.7 this fall. Can anybody in addition to Syracuse throw even a slight scare into the champs?
A fast reminder on terminology: S&P+ is the tempo- and opponent-adjusted effectivity measure I created at Soccer Outsiders in 2008.
Groups are listed under so as of S&P+ projections. Click on right here for the ACC Coastal preview.
Leap to a workforce:
Clemson | Florida State | NC State | Syracuse
Wake Forest | Boston Faculty | Louisville
2018 report and rankings: 15-Zero (No. Three in S&P+, No. 1 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 11.Zero wins (No. Three)
2019 FPI projection: 12.Three wins (No. 1)
Power: I am unable to choose only one. Dabo Swinney’s program has received two of the final three nationwide titles. The Tigers do only a few issues proper. Let’s have a look at, they’ve …
Possibly the most effective program tradition within the nation, as created by Swinney and his low-turnover teaching employees.
Essentially the most high-ceiling passing recreation within the nation with quarterback Trevor Lawrence throwing to wideouts Tee Higgins, CFP hero Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers.
Operating again Travis Etienne and his eight.1 yards per carry toting the ball behind a line with at the least three all-conference contenders.
Essentially the most well-coached and well-structured protection, led by coordinator Brent Venables and supplemented by sturdy recruiting and the aforementioned tradition.
Possibly the most effective security corps in FBS, led by seniors Okay’Von Wallace and Tanner Muse and all-world nickelback/OLB Isaiah Simmons.
We’ll cease there, however you get the purpose.
Large receiver Justyn Ross and quarterback Trevor Lawrence are two key items of Clemson’s high-powered offense. Harry How/Getty Pictures
Weak spot: An inexperienced entrance six. We are able to assume that Venables & Co. could have their protection absolutely weaponized fairly shortly, but it surely nonetheless bears mentioning that the Tigers are changing 5 of final yr’s high six linemen and 6 of seven linebackers.
Venables deployed an unlimited rotation final yr, so Clemson nonetheless has fairly recognized items on a line led by sophomore finish and All-America candidate Xavier Thomas. However the Tigers have senior Chad Smith and who-knows-what-else at LB. They’re going to most likely be high quality, after all, but it surely may take a bit to succeed in full stability there.
2 Associated
Alternative: Life within the ACC. The ACC was, per S&P+, the weakest of the ability conferences final yr. We are able to assume that Florida State will probably be higher this yr, however we do not know by how a lot, and FSU has to journey to Loss of life Valley. Swinney tends to maintain as many playing cards as doable near his vest, and with a schedule that options solely two projected top-25 opponents (once more, per S&P+), he’ll be capable of keep fairly vanilla.
Menace: The early going. You could possibly fairly simply make the case that the 2 most losable video games on the schedule — a go to from top-15 Texas A&M and a highway recreation in opposition to Syracuse, the workforce that took the Tigers down in 2017 and practically did so once more in 2018 — come within the first three weeks of the schedule. Syracuse may be capable of make the most of a doubtlessly unsettled entrance six; Texas A&M undoubtedly will be capable of.
2018 report and rankings: 5-7 (No. 71 in S&P+, No. 67 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 7.1 wins (No. 28)
2019 FPI projection: eight.1 wins (No. 21)
Power: Defensive spine. You could possibly outline a protection’s backbone as its defensive tackles, inside linebackers and safeties. The gamers on the sting (pass-rushers, cornerbacks) get plenty of the headlines, however a sturdy spine could make a spectacular distinction. FSU has it. Nostril guard Marvin Wilson is probably the most confirmed participant on the workforce; sophomore tackles Cory Durden and Robert Cooper might play bigger roles; three senior linebackers (Dontavious Jackson, Adonis Thomas, Emmett Rice) might make an influence; and safeties Hamsah Nasirildeen and Jaiden Lars-Woodbey have excessive ceilings.
Weak spot: Offensive line. Willie Taggart’s first season as head coach obtained fully derailed by a sieve of an offensive entrance. He did not inherit a lot high-end expertise, and what he had instantly obtained damage. 9 gamers began at the least two video games, and just one (departed middle Alec Eberle) began all 12.
This was a practice wreck. FSU ranked 125th in stuff price (run stops at or behind the road) and 85th in blitz-downs sack price. The Seminoles could not keep away from third-and-longs to avoid wasting their lives, and once they obtained a third-and-manageable, they could not convert. It began up entrance.
James Blackman, who began in 2017, is the seemingly quarterback for Florida State this season. Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports activities
Alternative: A breath of recent air on offense. The Noles completed a horrid 97th in offensive S&P+, however they get a complete makeover. The ultra-successful (and clearly controversial) Kendal Briles takes over as offensive coordinator; Randy Clements is the brand new offensive line coach; and 2017 starter James Blackman is the seemingly QB. He’ll have former blue-chipper Cam Akers within the backfield with him, plus dynamite deep threats Tamorrion Terry and Keith Gavin out large.
After a few years of stagnation, FSU ought to have much more vitality and tempo this yr.
Menace: Morale. After years of steadiness beneath Jimbo Fisher, the Noles’ offense started to slide in 2017, then every thing slipped final yr with Taggart’s introduction. This might simply find yourself a 12 months Zero state of affairs, by which a first-year coach wants a season to determine his employees and two-deep, then issues click on splendidly in his second yr. However FSU’s win whole has gotten worse or stagnated for 5 straight years. It is laborious to show a program round when it has been dropping its method for some time.
Two early toss-ups (vs. Boise State in Week 1 and at Virginia in Week Three) are monumental. Win these and also you’re seemingly 5-Zero if you head to Clemson. Lose and it is a full-on “right here we go once more” scenario.
2018 report and rankings: 9-Four (No. 35 in S&P+, No. 33 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 7.Four wins (No. 47)
2019 FPI projection: 7.Four wins (No. 46)
Power: Defensive continuity. Coordinator Dave Huxtable’s latest defenses have been gifted sufficient to be irritating. The 2017 Wolfpack featured finish Bradley Chubb (who lived as much as his top-five draft standing) and three different 2018 draftees however ranked solely 38th in defensive S&P+. The 2018 defensive entrance held up regardless of the turnover, however the Pack cratered in go protection and fell to 54th.
This yr, with eight starters again, State will at the least profit from continuity. Plus, with Dave Doeren’s recruiting having fun with a latest uptick, the Pack might have higher depth. However Huxtable has as a lot to show as his costs on the sphere.
NC State has expertise on offense, together with operating again Ricky Individual Jr., however misplaced plenty of key gamers. Michael Berg/Icon Sportswire
Weak spot: A complete offensive reset. With the protection producing considerably disappointing outcomes, the State offense needed to carry fairly a little bit of weight in a pair of nine-win seasons. However now it has to get used to life with out offensive coordinator Eliah Drinkwitz (now Appalachian State’s head coach), quarterback Ryan Finley, two 1,00Zero-yard receivers, a 1,00Zero-yard rusher and three all-conference linemen, two of whom have been All-Individuals.
There is definitely uncooked expertise right here. Sophomore again Ricky Individual Jr. was a star recruit, the receiving corps has effectivity weapons in Emeka Emezie, Wake Forest-via-Oregon switch Tabari Hines and Thayer Thomas, and the road continues to be fairly skilled. However it’ll be nearly inconceivable to keep away from a drop-off. Is the protection prepared to choose up the slack?
Alternative: A number of straightforward wins. With ECU, Western Carolina and Ball State visiting Raleigh, the Pack needs to be Three-1 at worst once they head to Tallahassee on Sept. 28, and they need to have had plenty of alternatives to tinker and be taught in these three wins. Plus, there are solely two projected top-30 opponents on the slate. If State figures some issues out early on, one other eight- or nine-win season might be within the works. However there’s rather a lot to determine on offense.
Menace: No safety blanket. Over three seasons, Finley threw for 10,501 yards and 60 touchdowns. He coated up for the truth that the protection was by no means fairly the sum of its components and the run recreation was inconsistent at greatest. His substitute, be it sophomore Matthew McKay, redshirt freshman Devin Leary or Florida State switch Bailey Hockman, has to determine fairly shortly the best way to not solely not be a legal responsibility but additionally cowl any cracks the opposite offensive attrition has induced. Sounds difficult.
2018 report and rankings: 10-Three (No. 40 in S&P+, No. 28 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 6.7 wins (No. 56)
2019 FPI projection: 6.7 wins (No. 49)
Power: A protection that finishes. The Syracuse protection ranked an honest 39th in marginal effectivity final yr, however massive performs have been a difficulty (106th in marginal explosiveness). One factor was sure, although: The timing was nice.
When the Orange had leveraged you not on time, they took your head off (16th in passing downs marginal effectivity, 20th in blitz-downs sack price), and if you entered the purple zone, your progress stopped (26th in factors allowed per scoring alternative, 20th in success price contained in the 10). And many of the causes for that success are again. Ends Alton Robinson and Kendall Coleman make up top-of-the-line duos within the nation, and the secondary is loaded with expertise. (It additionally boasts possibly the most effective sophomore defender within the nation in security Andre Cisco.)
Defensive lineman Alton Robinson recorded 10 sacks final season for Syracuse. Brett Carlsen/Getty Pictures
Weak spot: An inefficient offense has a brand new quarterback. Syracuse had its moments on offense — 56 factors per recreation in opposition to early nonconference cupcakes, 500 or extra yards six instances — however the Orange have been fairly reliant on massive performs and nice area place for his or her factors. They have been inconsistent down for down (76th in marginal effectivity).
It is laborious to enhance your effectivity if you lose your beginning quarterback (who was additionally your main rusher), your high receiving goal and three beginning linemen. However to match final yr’s 10-win whole, Syracuse goes to must discover a method. New beginning QB Tommy DeVito was a well-regarded recruit, at the least.
Alternative: A schedule that may soak up a drop-off. Towards a schedule that featured solely three top-30 opponents (per S&P+), Syracuse racked up wins with what S&P+ noticed as a mere top-40 workforce. It is the identical story this time round — Clemson and FSU are the one opponents projected greater than 47th. Syracuse might fall and nonetheless fairly simply win eight video games.
Menace: The trickiest doable begin for a brand new QB. Delicate because the schedule could be total, the kickoff continues to be going to check DeVito. The Orange open with back-to-back highway video games in opposition to Liberty and Maryland, and though Syracuse will probably be favored in each video games, Liberty goes to take a “mid-major with a shot at an enormous house upset” house run swing, and Maryland has as a lot or extra athleticism, if not as a lot confirmed ability.
After that, Syracuse returns house to face Clemson. There are many potential wins on the schedule, however that is nonetheless a tough early highway.
2018 report and rankings: 7-6 (No. 57 in S&P+, No. 59 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 6.2 wins (No. 62)
2019 FPI projection: 6.1 wins (No. 59)
Power: A sticky secondary. Wake Forest ranked an honest 48th in passing marginal effectivity final season, but it surely might have been higher with any semblance of a go rush (85th in sack price, 117th on blitz downs). It is laborious to say the cornerbacks did not do their jobs — Essang Bassey, Amari Henderson and Ja’Sir Taylor mixed for 32 passes defensed.
If defensive coordinator Lyle Hemphill can determine the best way to dial up a bit extra stress — finish Carlos Basham Jr. is again, however he wants plenty of assist — then this secondary, which additionally returns nickelback Luke Masterson and robust security Nasir Greer, might be one of many league’s greatest. And Wake goes to wish no matter benefits it will probably discover with a schedule that features November highway journeys to Virginia Tech, Clemson and Syracuse.
Sam Hartman and Wake Forest will probably be nearer to their ceiling early on than plenty of opponents, and that would produce a 5-1 begin or higher. AP Picture/Chuck Burton
Weak spot: Horrific purple zone D. Dave Clawson pulls off improbable rebuilds wherever he goes, and he has engineered three straight bowl campaigns after Wake Forest had made just one bowl from 2009-2015. One among his greatest strengths is having the ability to slowly keep away from excessive weaknesses, but it surely’s truthful to say purple zone protection certified as such.
Wake allowed 5.42 factors per scoring alternative (first downs contained in the protection’s 40) final season, 125th in FBS. The Deacs ranked 120th in success price allowed between the 11 and the 20, 93rd contained in the 10 and 118th on the aim line. With three of final yr’s high 4 linemen gone, there’s nothing saying this yr’s protection will stiffen any higher.
Alternative: A high-continuity offense and a home-heavy early schedule. Wake hosts Utah State to begin the season and hosts three ACC foes by mid-October. And whereas fairly a couple of opponents will probably be discovering themselves early within the yr, Wake is aware of itself fairly effectively. QBs Sam Hartman and Jamie Newman each noticed plenty of taking part in time final yr, and operating again Cade Carney and 5 of final yr’s high seven receiving targets return, together with big-play sophomore Sage Surratt. Wake will probably be nearer to its ceiling early on than plenty of opponents, and that would produce a 5-1 begin or higher.
Menace: Depth points. Wake was 35th in defensive S&P+ in mid-September, however accidents at linebacker and defensive again led to a precipitous drop, all the best way to 97th, earlier than a late-year rebound. Clawson’s program-building talents are simple, however Wake’s depth isn’t going to be a energy.
2018 report and rankings: 7-5 (No. 63 in S&P+, No. 36 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 5.5 wins (No. 72)
2019 FPI projection: 5.1 wins (No. 65)
Power: Explosions. Positive, the Steve Addazio period at BC will probably be recognized primarily for beefy operating backs and guys being dudes, however the Eagles’ greatest energy in 2018 was profitable the big-play battle.
Kobay White averaged 15.9 yards per catch, and twin threats Jeff Smith and Ben Glines mixed to common 17.Four per catch and 6.2 per carry. This workforce knew its id (see: mentioned beefy RBs equivalent to 250-pound AJ Dillon) and performed off it actually, rather well.
Granted, the bottom offense itself was shaky — BC was 114th in marginal effectivity however 27th in marginal explosiveness — and that made the Eagles a particularly inconsistent workforce. Nonetheless, with quarterback Anthony Brown, White and Glines all again, this might once more be a scary, if nonetheless all-or-nothing, assault.
Large receiver Ben Glines averaged 14.2 yards per catch final season for Boston Faculty. James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports activities
Weak spot: Large inefficiency. See above. BC had a ground-heavy offense that could not transfer the ball on the bottom. Dillon’s success price (39%) was effectively under common, and, regardless of a wholesome quantity of meat, BC was wholly mediocre in goal-line and short-yardage conditions. The Eagles might catch opponents napping, however constructing an offense round what you are really good at works higher.
Offensive coordinator Scot Loeffler obtained the Bowling Inexperienced head-coaching job this previous winter, and Addazio changed him with former Tennessee offensive coordinator and Tampa Bay Bucs QB coach Mike Bajakian. We’ll see whether or not id and energy match up a bit higher.
Alternative: An absence of opponents able to punishing BC’s younger secondary. Turnover within the secondary tends to be immensely influential in the case of year-to-year enchancment or regression, and BC’s secondary turned over fairly fully.
4 of final yr’s high 5 DBs are gone, leaving solely sophomore nook Brandon Sebastian and a bunch of (largely younger) gamers in heavy-usage roles. The go rush will get a reset, too. Fortunately, solely three of BC’s 2019 opponents ranked within the high 40 in passing marginal effectivity final yr — one in every of which was NC State, which suffers related turnover on offense — and 6 ranked worse than 80th.
Menace: An absence of certain wins. Addazio has managed to win precisely seven video games, no extra and no fewer, for 5 of the previous six seasons. It is doable he’ll do the identical in 2019, however that is going to require fairly a couple of toss-up wins as a result of, per S&P+, there are three seemingly wins, 4 fairly seemingly losses and 5 video games projected to be inside a landing.
2018 report and rankings: 2-10 (No. 98 in S&P+, No. 103 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: Four.Zero wins (No. 87)
2019 FPI projection: Four.Four wins (No. 66)
Power: Choices. Let’s not sugarcoat it: Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville was an utter catastrophe. The Cardinals not solely collapsed offensively and defensively but additionally saved getting worse and worse. They misplaced their final 4 video games by a median of 45 factors on the best way to a 2-10 thud.
Former Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield was introduced in to wash up Petrino’s mess, and the rent made plenty of sense — Satterfield wanted principally a yr and a half to show Appalachian State round in 2013-14 (in the midst of a transfer to FBS, no much less) and constructed one of many sturdiest cultures in school soccer in Boone, North Carolina. He is obtained work to do, however at just about each place on the sphere, he has a number of choices and no assured starters. It is Jawon Move vs. Malik Cunningham at QB and a battle royale at practically each different place. Solely the WR place, with Dez Fitzpatrick, Tutu Atwell and Seth Dawkins, actually boasts any confirmed entities.
Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield has a number of choices, however no assured starter, at nearly each place. AP Picture/Timothy D. Easley
Weak spot: Final yr? Just about every thing. Louisville could not go, could not defend the run or go, and will run solely when Cunningham (who was restricted as a passer) was concerned. There was completely nothing to lean on, and although competitors and an absence of incumbents is sweet for establishing your tradition, it is not nice for rapid wins. This can be a 12 months Zero scenario — by which a coach’s first yr is spent getting items in the best locations, establishing expectations and possibly dropping plenty of video games — if ever one existed.
Alternative: Extraordinarily low expectations. By no means thoughts wins — all Louisville has to do is canopy a couple of instances and the Cardinals could have exceeded final yr’s efficiency. UL’s collapse final yr was so stark that not even Vegas might sustain. Louisville underachieved in opposition to the unfold by 12 factors per recreation in September, 20 in October and 21 in November. The Cardinals completed 1-10 in opposition to the unfold. Each time Vegas lowered the bar, Louisville obtained worse.
Menace: You title it. Lack of confirmed expertise. A youth motion that produces minimal constructing blocks. A tradition change that requires a multiyear rebuild. A whole and whole lack of depth (fairly a couple of gamers transferred this offseason). There is not any straightforward method again if you expertise what Louisville skilled final yr. Satterfield was superior at Appalachian State, however he is obtained an enormous problem forward of him.