Barnwell: Has the inevitable Drew Brees decline already begun?
For years, the New Orleans Saints held again Drew Brees from successful his second Tremendous Bowl. Now, might the largest impediment for the 2019 Saints truly be their star quarterback?
They enter the season with a 15.7% probability of successful the Tremendous Bowl per ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index, odds which might be second within the NFL behind the Chiefs, however these numbers absolutely depend upon the long run Corridor of Fame quarterback persevering with to play at his accepted degree of greatness.
In 2018, Brees was nice … till he wasn’t. By the primary 11 video games, he put collectively what could be the most effective stretch of play we have ever seen from an NFL quarterback, with the Saints beginning 10-1 whereas averaging greater than 37 factors per sport. Over his ultimate 4 video games of the common season and within the Saints’ two postseason contests, although — sandwiched round a Teddy Bridgewater begin in Week 17 — Brees appeared bizarre:
Drew Brees’ 2018 Splits
SplitWeeks
1-11Weeks
12-17File10-14-2Saints PPG37.220.7Cmp272146Att356211Cmp %76.four%69.2percentYards3,1351,407Y/Att8.86.7TD297INT25Score127.388.7AY/A10.26.3QBR87.152.9
In a single day, he went from taking part in like an MVP to placing up numbers within the vary of quarterbacks resembling Derek Carr and Case Keenum. And whereas it was misplaced within the shuffle of the notorious missed pass-interference name in opposition to Nickell Robey-Coleman late within the fourth quarter of the NFC title sport, Brees did not play all that effectively in that loss to the Rams, averaging simply 6.2 yards per try and turning a pair of brief fields into simply three factors earlier than throwing an interception on the primary possession of extra time.
Do the Saints have one thing to be involved about with their star quarterback? At 40 years previous, Brees is in only charted territory; the one different passers in league historical past to make it by a full season as a starter of their age-40 marketing campaign are Tom Brady and Brett Favre. The excellent news for New Orleans is that each performed effectively and made deep playoff runs, though Saints followers will not must be reminded of how Favre’s 2009 season ended.
Usually, I wish to undergo the analysis earlier than detailing what I’ve discovered, however I will stick the findings up right here first this time. The perfect reply to the Brees query I simply posed is “possibly.” I do not assume what occurred on the finish of 2018 essentially signifies that Brees goes to be on the Carr degree once more in 2019. Concurrently, although, there is not any assure we are going to see the previous Brees, as a result of we simply haven’t got a sufficiently big pattern of Corridor of Fame quarterbacks getting thus far of their careers within the trendy period to know what triggers their decline. Brees might fall off and turn out to be a middling quarterback for causes completely unrelated to what we noticed final season. So might Brady. Father Time arrives with out warning.
Maybe most essential for Saints followers, even provided that I count on New Orleans to say no in 2019, I nonetheless assume the Saints are a viable Tremendous Bowl contender if the Brees from these ultimate few weeks exhibits up, given their energy elsewhere on the roster. Determining which version of Brees will present up for almost all of 2019 is just about inconceivable, however in going by a sequence of questions associated to that larger query, I believe we are able to get to some fascinating stuff about getting old, quarterback play and what would possibly occur with the Saints this season.
Drew Brees, who turned 40 in January, has made 12 Professional Bowls however has only one first-team All-Professional look (2006). Aaron Doster/USA TODAY Sports activities
What occurred on the finish of 2019?
After watching these video games once more and looking out over the numbers, there’s not a transparent, apparent trigger for what occurred to Brees after Thanksgiving. The perfect clarification is a confluence of things coming collectively to drive the decline, together with:
Regression towards the imply. Briefly, it may not be realistically potential for any quarterback to play for a full season in addition to Brees had over the primary 11 video games of 2018. He wasn’t on account of wrestle — that is the gambler’s fallacy — however his true expertise baseline is not finishing greater than 76% of his passes whereas throwing almost 15 landing passes for each interception, as a result of no one is that good.
For example, take Brees’ competitors on the time for the MVP award, eventual winner Patrick Mahomes. By the primary 12 weeks of the season, Mahomes posted a Complete QBR of 82.6, a passer ranking of 117.9 and averaged simply over 10.zero adjusted yards per try, or AY/A. (I will be utilizing AY/A, which counts touchdowns as value 20 extra yards and interceptions as a 45-yard penalty, as an enchancment upon passer ranking on this piece. You possibly can learn extra about that statistic right here.)
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After Week 12, Mahomes declined, albeit way more gently than his competitors in New Orleans. From Week 13 on, Mahomes posted a Complete QBR of 72.9, a passer ranking of 103.6 and averaged eight.7 AY/A. It is simply exhausting for any quarterback to be nearly as good as Brees (or Mahomes) was in the course of the first three months of the season, so it will have been pure to count on some drop-off from the Saints star over December and January. Clearly, Brees declined greater than we might have anticipated given his historical past, in order that’s not sufficient of a solution by itself.
The street journey. Brees has exhibited a pronounced residence/street cut up throughout his profession; the Purdue product has averaged eight.1 AY/A and thrown 2.7 touchdowns for each interception at residence, however Brees has fallen off to 7.1 AY/Some time averaging 1.eight scores for each choose on the street. His decline began with three consecutive video games on the street earlier than a house sport in opposition to the Steelers, during which he went 27-of-39 for 326 yards with a landing in his greatest outing of the ultimate six. (He sat out the meaningless Week 17 sport in opposition to the Panthers.)
Brees’ street drop-off is often attributed to climate after shifting away from the climate-controlled confines of the Superdome, however I do not assume climate performed an enormous half right here. His street journey included a sport in opposition to the Cowboys within the Jerry Dome, a 71-degree afternoon in Tampa, Florida, and a 48-degree evening sport in opposition to the Panthers in Charlotte, North Carolina. His coldest sport of the season was a 39-degree street sport in opposition to the Bengals in early November, when the long run Corridor of Famer went a near-perfect 22-of-25 for 265 yards and three touchdowns. And while you embody the 2 playoff video games, Brees performed precisely as many video games at residence as he did on the street throughout this six-game decline, so touring does not inform the complete story, both.
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The deep passes. Brees was an absolute savage on deep throws throughout his dominant begin, however that mastery appeared to fade because the season went alongside. The NFL defines deep passes as throws touring 16 or extra yards within the air, and in the course of the first 11 video games, Brees accomplished greater than 60% of these throws, averaged almost 17 yards per try and tossed 9 landing passes in opposition to only one choose.
Throughout his six-game finish to the season, although, Brees accomplished simply 41.Three% of these passes, averaged 10.eight yards per try and threw two picks in opposition to one lone landing go, which got here on his first deep try of that stretch, to Keith Kirkwood. Throughout one stretch in opposition to the Panthers and Steelers, Brees was simply 1-of-9 for 19 yards on deep throws.
In watching Brees truly throw, although, I do not see a quarterback who was struggling to hit his receivers downfield. He was taking part in effectively and usually placing the ball in the precise place on the proper time. That 1-of-9 stretch included doubtlessly six excellent or almost excellent throws, with these passes both dropped, damaged up by defenders who made nice performs or caught.
The Saints coaches did not seem to assume that Brees was struggling to finish deep throws, both, provided that the veteran quarterback was dialing them up about as ceaselessly as he had been throughout that early run. He averaged 5.7 deep passes per sport in the course of the 11-game begin to the season, and he averaged 5 deep throws per sport by his subsequent 5 begins. The sixth sport was the loss to the Rams, which is an efficient illustration of what Brees handled right here.
Drew Brees set the single-season file for completion share in 2018 as he accomplished 74.four% of his throws. Streeter Lecka/Getty Photos
The Rams performed a good quantity of two-deep protection and tried to drive all the pieces beneath, which is why Brees was 11-of-13 on throws to Alvin Kamara within the NFC Championship Sport. Brees took 4 deep photographs throughout that sport. One was a wonderfully positioned go to tight finish Dan Arnold, just for the backup to drop a would-be landing on the ultimate try of the opening drive. The second was a third-and-17 dig path to Ted Ginn Jr., who received open, just for Brees both to count on Ginn to decide on the route or throw behind his receiver. The third was the 43-yard go to Ginn within the fourth quarter that arrange the fateful non-call, and whereas that throw held on Brees a bit, he put the go the place it wanted to go. The fourth and ultimate throw was his final go of the season, the interception he threw whereas being hit in his movement (and arguably within the helmet) by Dante Fowler Jr.
As with the larger image, it is not as if Brees simply forgot find out how to hit his receivers downfield. He naturally regressed towards the remainder of the league and had some unhealthy luck in a small pattern.
A purple zone decline. Once more, the Saints had been simply working too sizzling to maintain going at their pre-Thanksgiving price. Brees & Co. averaged 5.7 factors per purple zone journey by the primary 12 weeks of the season, which is ridiculous, even by their requirements. For context, between the primary 12 weeks of the season from 2013 to 2017, the Saints averaged just below a good 5.zero factors per purple zone journey. From Week 13 on, the Saints hit four.9 factors per purple zone journey, which is correct on the league common over that very same time-frame.
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Brees’ efficiency did not slip a lot within the purple zone over that stretch, both by the numbers or on tape, though he did put a slant to Michael Thomas low two performs earlier than the notorious no-call in opposition to Robey-Coleman. They dropped one in every of his 72 purple zone go makes an attempt in the course of the first 12 weeks of the season, solely to place three of Brees’ 32 makes an attempt on the bottom afterward. Arnold dropped a would-be landing within the first quarter in opposition to the Rams, Ginn dropped a fast out in the identical sport, and Tommylee Lewis dropped a slant on a choose play contained in the 5-yard line in opposition to the Cowboys which could have gone for a rating. The Arnold drive led to a area aim, and Smith’s drop was on first-and-goal on a sequence which ended with Kamara getting stuffed on the aim line. Each video games had been determined by three factors.
Stress. The Saints misplaced star left sort out Terron Armstead in that 51-14 victory over the Bengals, however there’s not an actual clear correlation between Armstead’s absence and Brees’ drop-off. They scored 79 factors within the first two video games Armstead missed, wins in opposition to the Eagles and Falcons. Armstead did sit out the three-game street journey, however he was again on the sphere for Brees’ three subsequent residence begins to finish the season.
Moreover, Brees wasn’t pressured at a considerably increased price throughout his decline. He was truly pressured extra ceaselessly throughout his sizzling begin (20.eight%) than his subsequent falloff (19.5%). What modified was how profitable opposing groups had been after they did stress Brees. Earlier than Thanksgiving, groups turned just below 13% of their pressures in opposition to Brees into sacks. Afterward, that determine almost doubled, to 25%.
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Stephen A. Smith is appalled by Max Kellerman altering his opinion on 40-year-old quarterbacks’ possibilities to “fall off a cliff.”
The stress additionally advised with takeaways. After throwing two interceptions by 12 weeks, Brees threw 5 over the following six video games. Three had been a direct results of stress — this short-armed checkdown to Kamara in opposition to the Cowboys, a rushed display screen go in opposition to the Buccaneers and the season-ending interception in opposition to the Rams.
The opposite two had been completely different tales. One was an excellent throw to Arnold in opposition to the Panthers, just for the ball to be dislodged by Thomas Davis’ helmet and picked off by James Bradberry. The opposite was an underthrown bomb on the primary play of the sport in opposition to the Eagles on a play that ought to have resulted in a protracted Ginn landing, just for Cre’von LeBlanc to remove the go.
What about that play in opposition to Atlanta?
In an try to attract a transparent line between Brees’ two seasons, some have pointed to the Thanksgiving evening win over the Falcons and the sort out Brees tried on his second interception of the season. After an ill-advised throw was picked off by Damontae Kazee, the Falcons security tried to return the go for a pick-six. Kazee ought to have been (and ultimately was) dominated down on the level of the catch, however with no whistle being blown, Brees tried to tackle blocking Falcons nook Desmond Trufant and was whipped sideways as Kazee ran previous.
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The timing on a macro degree is smart, provided that Brees’ second season began with the Cowboys sport the next week. The issue with that concept, although, is that Brees threw that interception in opposition to the Falcons within the first quarter. Over the rest of the sport, he went 10-of-15 for 115 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. The Saints did not want a lot from Brees in a sport throughout which they ran for 150 yards and the Falcons turned the ball over 4 occasions, however after they known as on their star quarterback, he was environment friendly and very efficient.
Is it potential that Brees rode an adrenaline excessive (or a painkilling shot) within the sport, wakened sore, after which wasn’t the identical participant after that Thursday evening sport? I suppose, however Occam’s razor means that Brees would not have been his ordinary dominant self for 3 quarters after the hit earlier than all of the sudden declining the next week in opposition to Dallas. I am skeptical the hit performed a big position in his falloff.
Did Brees merely get drained?
Each quarterback wears down some because the season goes alongside, however I do not assume there is a sturdy case for fatigue because the most probably reason behind the decline. Brees does not have a notable monitor file of declining because the yr goes alongside. Over his profession, he has roughly posted the identical AY/A in September (7.37 AY/A) as he has in December and January regular-season video games (7.35 AY/A).
May Brees’ age make him extra more likely to gasoline out late within the season? Maybe. I went again by 2001 and cut up the league’s quarterbacks into 4 teams by their age as of Sept. 1 in every season to see if older quarterbacks had been extra more likely to decline towards the tip of the season than their youthful counterparts. Brees fell into the camp of quarterbacks who had been 36 and older, and the remainder had been cut up up with 31-35-year-olds, 26-30-year-olds and the 25-and-younger crowd.
The Saints had been with out Ted Ginn Jr. for a lot of 2018, because the veteran receiver performed in simply 5 video games and caught 17 passes. Derick E. Hingle/USA TODAY Sports activities
Whenever you examine their AY/A in December and common season-games from January to their efficiency in September, October and November, the elder statesmen do drop off by about 6.6%. It isn’t sufficient to clarify everything of Brees’ decline, provided that his regular-season AY/A fell off by about 33% between the primary three months of the season and his three-game stretch in December, however it’s most likely some small a part of the equation.
With that being stated, it is hardly as if the Saints overworked Brees. The identical quarterback who as soon as routinely topped 450 passes between September and November — topping out at 492 in 2012 — threw solely 384 passes by his first 12 video games between September and November this time round.
So, has Brees misplaced it?
He might come again as a mediocre quarterback in 2019, however I do not assume final season’s falloff is sufficient to show something. For one, he wasn’t even that unhealthy; he wasn’t that far off statistically from league common over his six-game stint. Brees appeared higher than his numbers on tape. All the infrastructure surrounding him returns moreover Mark Ingram, and the Saints truly upgraded offensive weapons by including Jared Cook dinner.
Brees has additionally come again from worse stints prior to now. I put collectively a rolling five-game common of AY/A for every of his video games with 10 or extra go makes an attempt after which constructed a weighted league common to measure how Brees in comparison with the remainder of the NFL’s quarterbacks. I did not embody postseason video games, however within the ultimate 5 video games of 2018, Brees was 7.5% under league common.
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Even provided that he was as excessive as 44.1% above league common earlier within the season, 7.5% under common simply is not remarkably unhealthy. Brees was Three.7% under common over a five-game stint in December 2016 after throwing three interceptions in back-to-back video games and 9 over a five-game stretch. He confirmed no unwell results the next season. In October 2015, Brees dropped to 7.2% under common after which proceeded to throw 28 touchdowns in opposition to 9 picks the remainder of the way in which. Randomness and the aforementioned components in a small pattern usually tend to have pushed Brees’ decline than an inescapable, terminal plunge. My most probably consequence for him is that he is about midway between league common and the lofty heights of his 11-game begin to 2018.
With that being stated, although, there’s an opportunity Brees does drop to substitute degree in 2019. Each quarterback on this age bracket has some probability of turning right into a pumpkin in any given season with out warning. Even when I do not assume these ultimate few video games symbolize a significant indicator, historical past tells us Brees has some probability of falling out of competition in 2019.
What occurs to Corridor of Fame quarterbacks as they strategy/go 40?
Typically, they’re nice till the underside all of the sudden falls out. We do not have many trendy quarterbacks who actually examine to Brees, so we do not have an enormous pattern of what occurs on the finish of their careers. From what we have seen, issues usually do not finish effectively. Whenever you take a look at these previous two generations of star quarterbacks, their careers appear to finish one in every of 3 ways:
Critical accidents: Troy Aikman (retired after age-34 season), Steve Younger (38)
Vital, sudden decline: Brett Favre (41), Jim Kelly (36), Dan Marino (38), Peyton Manning (39)
Above-average play earlier than leaving on personal phrases: John Elway (38), Joe Montana (38)
The one man who does not actually match into anybody group is Warren Moon, who was a Professional Bowler for the Seahawks in his age-41 season earlier than being benched for Jon Kitna the next yr and spending two seasons with the Chiefs as a backup. Aikman might additionally match within the severe decline group, provided that he had been proper at or above league common for his whole profession earlier than taking a significant step backward and posting a 78 AY/A+ in that ultimate yr earlier than his concussion points.
Peyton Manning’s ultimate sport was a Tremendous Bowl 50 win over the Panthers. Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports activities
When my colleague Mike Triplett requested the Saints earlier this month whether or not they had been involved about Brees’ disappointing finish to 2018, they responded in the way in which you would possibly count on: by expressing their confidence that Brees would proceed to be nice. Quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi even referenced Nicholas Taleb’s guide “Fooled by Randomness” whereas suggesting what occurred to Brees was extra on account of random probability than any type of sample. I principally agree.
The place I disagree with Lombardi, although, is in what he stated to Triplett subsequent. “Hear, we did not simply rating 48 factors after which impulsively, sooner or later later, age caught as much as him,” Lombardi stated. “That is ridiculous, it is absurd.”
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I do not assume it is fairly as unlikely as Lombardi is suggesting. On the very least, we have now a number of current examples of quarterbacks taking part in at a world-class degree earlier than all of the sudden, inexplicably declining, together with a robust comp for what occurred to Brees final season:
Favre threw 33 landing passes in opposition to seven picks throughout his age-40 season in 2009 and put an exclamation level on his season with a four-touchdown, 148.7-passer ranking sport in opposition to the Giants. He threw for 4 extra touchdowns in a 34-Three blowout of the Cowboys within the divisional spherical earlier than he famously threw a pair of picks within the dramatic NFC title sport loss to the Saints. The next season, Favre threw simply 11 landing passes in opposition to 19 interceptions and subsequently retired.
Kelly was above league common at 35, together with a 237-yard, four-touchdown sport in opposition to the Rams in December 1995. The Payments made the playoffs and scored 37 factors in a wild-card sport win, though he wasn’t spectacular. The next season, a 36-year-old Kelly threw 14 landing passes in opposition to 19 picks, his sack price spiked to eight.9%, and the long run Corridor of Famer subsequently retired.
Marino was an above-average passer at age 37, together with a 355-yard, four-touchdown efficiency in Week 16 of the 1998 season in opposition to the Broncos. He had a few huge video games left in him, together with a 393-yard, two-touchdown efficiency in opposition to the Colts in Week four of the next yr, however Marino threw 12 landing passes in opposition to 17 picks that yr, struggled to remain wholesome, and retired after a 62-7 playoff loss to the Jaguars.
The obvious comparability could be Manning, who was an MVP candidate throughout his age-38 season in 2014. Manning threw for 257 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 39-36 win over the Dolphins. He was averaging 323.5 passing yards per sport with 34 touchdowns in opposition to 9 interceptions by that Dolphins win; over the ultimate 5 video games of the common season, the previous Colts star averaged 233.eight yards per sport with 5 touchdowns in opposition to six picks. Manning struggled in a playoff loss to his previous employers and threw for 9 touchdowns in opposition to simply 17 picks in a 2015 season the place he was benched for Brock Osweiler.
Aikman and Younger each retired on account of accidents. The one guys who rode off on their horse into the sundown whereas taking part in effectively had been Elway, who left after successful his second consecutive Tremendous Bowl, and Montana, who had come again after lacking the higher a part of two full seasons with accidents. Brees is now older than each had been.
In trying by the tip of every participant’s profession, there is not any type of development or indicator I can discover that represented proof of their coming decline. If I do the identical rolling AY/A common for every of them as I did for Brees, they resided in equally lofty heights to Brees earlier than declining quickly of their ultimate season.
As a Broncos participant, Manning solely dropped under league common over a five-game pattern by Week 17 of the 2014 season, when his AY/A was 5.1% under the mark. Even though he was 34.2% above league common over a five-game stretch as lately as Week 9, Manning by no means made it again above league common. Does that imply Brees will comply with in Manning’s footsteps this upcoming season? It is potential, however one dominant quarterback’s profession path is not proof that Brees will comply with swimsuit.
Drew Brees completed with a Complete QBR of 54.9 within the NFC title sport loss to the Rams, throwing two landing passes and an interception. Chuck Cook dinner/USA TODAY Sports activities
The instructive method to consider quarterback getting old, I believe, is like this: As a Corridor of Fame-caliber passer enters his late 30s, there’s some share probability that he’ll all of the sudden lose it and turn out to be a replacement-level quarterback. These possibilities develop better with every advancing yr of getting old. The chance will increase for passers with damage histories and for quarterbacks whose infrastructure collapses round them. Neither of these classes match Brees, however as a 40-year-old quarterback, there’s simply not sufficient of a pattern dimension to say a lot about his probabilities of declining.
Is there a 10% probability Brees drastically declines and is barely playable in 2019? I purchase that. How about 20%? Possibly. Or 50%? That appears too excessive. It appears loopy to assume that the underside might all of the sudden fall out for a quarterback nearly as good as Brees (or, for that matter, Brady), however the identical was true for these different Corridor of Fame-caliber quarterbacks too. The factor about falling off a cliff is that you do not see it coming.
Can the Saints win even when Brees does crater?
They’ll, and I haven’t got to return very far for an instance of find out how to pull it off. I introduced up Manning’s 2014-15 decline as probably the most believable comparability for a Brees drop-off, however you additionally most likely bear in mind what occurred as Manning went from an MVP candidate in 2014 to Osweiler-grade in 2015: The Broncos gained Tremendous Bowl 50! They needed to bench Manning for Osweiler after which sub Manning again in for a part of Week 17 and the playoffs, however the Broncos rode home-field benefit to the Tremendous Bowl after which handily beat the Panthers in Santa Clara 24-10.
Manning was a passenger on that journey. He was barely satisfactory even in the course of the postseason, finishing 55.four% of his passes whereas averaging 5.eight AY/A. He did not even fill the traditional game-manager position by holding on to the soccer, as the long run Corridor of Famer turned the ball over thrice in three video games. He completed 11th among the many league’s 12 quarterbacks that postseason in Complete QBR, with a mark of 28.four.
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The Broncos gained that Tremendous Bowl due to what was round their quarterback, specifically, the protection. Denver’s protection compelled seven takeaways in three video games and completely beat up opposing quarterbacks. Von Miller & Co. racked up 14 sacks and a staggering 33 knockdowns over three video games, together with 17 knockdowns of Tom Brady within the AFC Championship Sport. Accidents helped, too; the Steelers had been with out Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell and had a gimpy Ben Roethlisberger after a brutal wild-card sport in opposition to the Bengals, and the Patriots had been with out beginning left sort out Nate Solder for many of that season.
It isn’t troublesome to think about the Saints successful video games on the energy of their protection. The 2015 Broncos led the league in defensive DVOA, coming in 25.eight% under league common. (With defensive DVOA, under common is sweet.) The Saints had been solely 11th within the league final season, with a DVOA 2.9% under league common, however they improved mightily after changing Ken Crawley with Eli Apple. Over the second half of the season and into the playoffs, New Orleans boasted the fifth-best protection in soccer on a per-game foundation by win chance added. Given its younger expertise on that facet of the ball, it is not out of the query that this protection sticks as one of many high 5 defenses in soccer in 2019.
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In fact, the Saints’ offense additionally must be higher than that of the 2015 Broncos, even when Brees does fall off. In Teddy Bridgewater, the Saints ought to have a greater backup than the Broncos did with Osweiler. Their working sport can also be more likely to be higher than that Broncos staff was at working the ball if Alvin Kamara stays wholesome, although they will want to regulate after shedding heart Max Unger to retirement. That Broncos staff ranked 25th in offensive DVOA; a Saints staff with Bridgewater beneath heart for half of the season ought to theoretically be capable to high that mark.
“I do not know” is not probably the most satisfying reply anybody can provide for what Brees will do in 2019, however it’s probably the most practical response to the query. Anybody who tells you they know for certain how Brees will play is mendacity. Given how he has performed at a excessive degree for the overwhelming majority of his profession, my greatest guess is that he’ll proceed to take care of a Professional Bowl-caliber degree of play, minus some reasonable penalty for getting old. After what Brees confirmed earlier than and after Thanksgiving final season, although, the error bars for any projection are far bigger than they’d be for many veteran quarterbacks. Every part from an MVP award to a benching-worthy marketing campaign is feasible for him this season.