Closing distance vital for UFC 239 title challengers
The highest of UFC 239 options two title fights, showcasing seemingly unstoppable champions towards robust, veteran contenders. In the primary occasion, Thiago Santos would be the newest fighter to attempt to resolve the puzzle that’s Jon Jones. Amanda Nunes will look to proceed her run within the bantamweight division towards former champion Holly Holm within the penultimate bout.
Each champions have clear and apparent benefits throughout a number of statistical classes, however there are clear paths to victory for the challengers as nicely. Let’s take a look at the statistical classes that could possibly be key by way of figuring out the winners Saturday evening at T-Cell Area in Las Vegas.
Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos
Jon Jones, proper, has landed 57% of his important strike makes an attempt at distance in his profession. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Placing differential
Jones’ size and combating type have virtually at all times given him a bonus over his opponents. He stays on the surface and lands with a wide range of distance strikes, whereas opponents wrestle to shut the gap and land. For his UFC profession, he has landed four.48 important strikes per minute and absorbed solely 2.05 per minute. That leaves him with a +2.43 hanging differential, which is nicely above the typical for a ranked gentle heavyweight (+1.44). Nonetheless, on this contest, the hanging differential truly favors the challenger. Santos absorbs barely extra important strikes on a per-minute foundation (2.16), however he lands 5.01 per minute, leaving him with a +2.85 differential. “Marreta” Santos has not been outlanded by an opponent since 2016, and he’s touchdown 5.67 important strikes per minute over his previous 5 fights.
Although Jones has relied on his capability to outland his opponents throughout his historic UFC run, it seems, no less than at a look, that he may not get pleasure from that luxurious towards Santos. Nonetheless, a deeper dive into the numbers illustrates the champion’s true prowess.
Placing place
Santos’ hanging has been excellent not too long ago, and his profession numbers are literally higher than these of Jones. Nonetheless, Jones nonetheless has the benefit on the subject of hanging at distance, which is outlined as standing and never within the clinch. Throughout his UFC profession, 61% of his landed important strikes have come at distance. Santos additionally lands a justifiable share of his blows at distance (47%), however his general hanging sport is way more reliant on his capability to land on the bottom. Of his landed important strikes, 32% have come on the ground.
The UFC has loaded up one other pay-per-view card Saturday, that includes two title fights: Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos and Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm.
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
• Early prelims: ESPN+ 6:15 p.m. ET
• Prelims: ESPN eight p.m. ET
• Fundamental card: ESPN+ PPV 10 p.m. ET – Purchase now | Get ESPN+ help
UFC 239 Content material
• The blueprint to beating Jon Jones
• Holm prepared to vary her legacy
• The UFC’s 22 Corridor of Fame moments
• Who else deserves to be within the UFC HOF?
• Inside Thiago Santos’ last preparation for Jon Jones
• Luke Rockhold’s twin careers
• How the UFC’s mighty have fallen? By the hands of Amanda Nunes
• Element: Daniel Cormier on Amanda Nunes
When together with solely hanging at distance, Jones has landed 2.75 per minute, whereas absorbing only one.54, for a +1.21 differential. The measure places him forward of Santos, who holds a +zero.97 differential at distance.
Jones additionally holds a bonus by way of hanging accuracy at distance. Each fighters are extraordinarily correct general. Jones lands 57% of his important makes an attempt, and Santos lands 50%. At distance, Jones maintains a 50% accuracy price, however Santos’ accuracy declines all the best way to 40%.
Santos might want to power the combat into his favored positions to keep up his benefit towards Jones. If the combat performs out at distance, this might simply flip into one other classic efficiency for “Bones.”
Takedowns/grappling
Although Santos is hoping to regulate the place of this combat, he may not be very profitable. He averages only one.00 takedown per 15 minutes, and he has landed solely 40% of his takedown makes an attempt. Whereas these should not dismal numbers, the duty of taking down Jones has confirmed overly troublesome for even a number of the most proficient wrestlers within the sport. Jones has efficiently defended 95% of his opponents’ takedown makes an attempt, and he has been taken down solely twice. On high of that, he has absorbed a complete of six important floor strikes in his 20-fight UFC profession.
If something, it’s extra doubtless that Jones would be the one scoring takedowns and dealing from the highest place. He has gotten away from his wrestling as he has developed as an MMA fighter, however he nonetheless averages 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes of combat time. Although Santos has had success hanging on the bottom, he has additionally confirmed to be considerably susceptible on the subject of the submission sport.
Santos has allowed zero.73 passes per takedown. His opponents have registered zero.63 submission makes an attempt per 15 minutes of combat time, and he has two first-round submission losses on his UFC résumé. Not solely will he wrestle to power his floor hanging offense towards Jones, however he may additionally put himself into hurt’s means attempting to grapple towards Jones.
Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm
Sound protection is a should when going through Amanda Nunes, who has landed 46% of her important head strikes in her UFC profession. Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Photos
Placing accuracy
One issue that has constantly held again Holm since she transformed from boxing to MMA in 2011 is her accuracy or lack thereof. Throughout her UFC profession, she has landed solely 34% of her tried important strikes, which is final amongst ranked bantamweights. Not solely has she landed with substandard accuracy general, however she has additionally struggled to land head strikes constantly. In her career-defining win over Ronda Rousey in 2015, Holm landed 66% of her important head-strike makes an attempt. Nonetheless, in the remainder of her profession mixed, she has managed to land solely 21% of these makes an attempt.
This isn’t a weak spot shared by Nunes. The champion lands 51% of her important strikes, which is above common for a ranked bantamweight (46%). By way of important head strikes, she lands 46%. Holm’s incapability to constantly land has actually harm her previously. In opposition to Nunes, it would actually give her plenty of issues because the champion has no points on this division.
Placing differential
An apparent results of poor hanging accuracy is a scarcity of landed strikes. Holm makes an attempt eight.26 important strikes per minute, which is just barely behind Nunes, who makes an attempt 9.06. Nonetheless, because of her depressed accuracy, she lands solely 2.82 important strikes per minute. Holm is strong defensively and permits her opponents to land solely 2.80 per minute, which is fifth greatest among the many ranked fighters in her division. Even with high quality protection, although, her lack of efficient hanging leaves her with solely a +zero.02 differential.
2 Associated
Nunes makes an attempt the same variety of important strikes, and since she is overly correct, she lands at a powerful price. Throughout her UFC profession, she has landed four.65 important strikes per minute, whereas absorbing solely 2.88. Her +1.77 hanging differential is the second highest among the many high 16 bantamweights.
Except Holm finds a means to enhance her accuracy, she might want to throw many extra makes an attempt to maintain tempo with Nunes by way of touchdown. Typically, a fighter may expertise a decline in protection when attempting to extend hanging quantity. That might additionally most likely get Holm into bother towards Nunes. The “Lioness” has landed zero.75 knockdowns per 15 minutes of combat time in her UFC profession and dropped former featherweight champion Cris Cyborg twice in her final combat.
Takedowns
Although the hanging numbers don’t paint a constructive image for Holm, she actually is at her greatest when she is hanging on her ft. Throughout her UFC profession, 83% of her landed important strikes have come at distance. Nonetheless, in her most up-to-date combat towards Megan Anderson, Holm confirmed some enchancment on the subject of closing the gap and in search of takedowns. In that combat, she landed 4 of eight takedown makes an attempt after scoring solely two takedowns in her earlier eight fights. Going into the combat, she had not landed a takedown since 2015 and failed on 9 straight makes an attempt towards Germaine de Randamie.
Going for takedowns towards Nunes is perhaps a strong stylistic alternative for Holm. The champion’s final loss got here towards Cat Zingano in 2014. In that combat, Zingano was profitable on all three of her takedown makes an attempt. Valentina Shevchenko additionally had some success towards the champion of their first combat after scoring a takedown and dealing from the highest place.
Even when Holm does attempt to wrestle towards Nunes, it is perhaps the “Lioness” who has the higher expertise in that space. She stops 78% of the takedown makes an attempt towards her, and she or he lands 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes within the cage.