Fantasy intel for all 32 groups forward of Week 2
Mike ClayESPN Author
CloseFantasy soccer, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
Member of Professional Soccer Writers of America
Founding director of Professional Soccer Focus Fantasy
2013 FSTA award winner for many correct preseason rankings
The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at the least one point out of every of the league’s 32 groups. Although effectivity will probably be mentioned a lot, the column will lean closely on utilization information, as a result of quantity is king (by far) in fantasy soccer. Use these tidbits to make the most effective waiver-wire, commerce and lineup choices for the upcoming week and past. Be sure you verify again every week of the season for a brand new model of the Fantasy 32.
Alternative alert
All through the beneath team-by-team rundowns, I will be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy factors. Think about a league wherein gamers are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs each go/carry/goal and converts the information into one quantity that signifies a participant’s alternative to attain fantasy factors, or his “anticipated” fantasy level whole. For instance, if a participant has an OFP of 14.5, it implies that a league common participant who noticed the identical workload in the identical location on the sphere would have scored 14.5 fantasy factors. FORP is the distinction between a participant’s precise fantasy level whole and his OFP. OTD works the identical method, besides as an alternative of fantasy factors, it is touchdowns. Quantity is king in fantasy soccer, so this isn’t info you wish to overlook.
That mentioned, right here is the Week 1 OFP Leaderboard:
Week 1 OFP Leaderboard
PlayerActual PtsOFPFORP1. Christian McCaffrey, RB4330122. Josh Jacobs, RB2428-33. Kyler Murray, QB2226-54. DeAndre Hopkins, WR312655. David Johnson, RB262516. Jamison Crowder, WR242417. Evan Engram, TE292458. Chris Carson, RB242319. Robert Woods, WR1722-510. Larry Fitzgerald, WR25223*Full OTD and OFP positional leaderboards will probably be posted at ESPN+ this week
Subsequent, listed here are the gamers who exceeded their OFP by the biggest margin this previous week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy manufacturing shifting ahead, assuming they see an analogous workload:
Exceeded their OFP by the biggest margin in Week 1
PlayerActual PtsOFPFORP1. Sammy Watkins, WR4722252. Marquise Brown, WR3110213. DeSean Jackson, WR3515204. Lamar Jackson, QB3414205. Dak Prescott, QB3314196. Austin Ekeler, RB3921187. Phillip Dorsett, WR269168. DJ Chark, WR259169. John Ross III, WR35191610. Derrick Henry, RB291613
And these gamers who fell in need of their OFP by the biggest margin final week and thus you should not be too fast to overreact to their efficiency when making lineup, commerce or waiver choices:
Fell in need of their OFP by the biggest margin in Week 1
PlayerActual PtsOFPFORP1. Donte Moncrief, WR419-152. Jameis Winston, QB718-113. Mitchell Trubisky, QB818-104. Gus Edwards, RB615-105. Christian Kirk, WR1019-96. Ben Roethlisberger, QB1018-97. Travis Kelce, TE1220-88. Phillip Lindsay, RB1118-89. Miles Sanders, RB411-810. Jakeem Grant, WR-15-7
Group-by-team rundowns
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals had a fourth vast receiver on the sphere for a large 76% of their offensive snaps on Sunday. Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense yielded solely 33 snaps and two targets to tight ends Charles Clay and Maxx Williams, who’re each nowhere near fantasy relevance. Larry Fitzgerald (78 snaps, 24% goal share) and Christian Kirk (76, 24%) stay weekly flex choices, although Damiere Byrd (72, 14%) and KeeSean Johnson (63, 18%) want a slight increase in targets to match the snaps earlier than they push for flex enchantment. Each are high-quality stashes in deeper leagues.
Atlanta Falcons
RB Devonta Freeman (33 snaps) had a tough Week 1 (11 touches, 31 yards) whereas all however splitting snaps with Ito Smith (34). After all, Freeman was dealing with an excellent Minnesota protection that has been terrific at slowing opposing backs in latest seasons. Life will not be a lot simpler in opposition to the Eagles’ sturdy run protection in Week 2, however the superior Atlanta again will definitely be a candidate for a bigger function shifting ahead. Do not panic — Freeman remains to be a stable RB2.
Baltimore Ravens
WR Marquise Brown exploded for five receptions, 147 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his NFL debut, however take into account that he was restricted to 12 snaps (fifth amongst Ravens wideouts) and 5 targets. The hole between his fantasy level whole (31) and OFP (10) was second-largest within the league. Brown will not be capable of maintain something near fantasy relevance with that taking part in time. Sure, it is attainable he performs extra in Week 2, however that is nothing greater than hypothesis. He needs to be added to all benches, however is a brilliant dangerous begin in opposition to Arizona.
Buffalo Payments
The Payments’ Week 1 operating again snap distribution was as follows: Devin Singletary (43), Frank Gore (18), T.J. Yeldon (2). This has clearly labored out to a two-headed assault, with Gore dealing with a bulk of the rushes (11 carries, zero targets) and Singletary a lot of the receiving work (4 carries, six targets). Particularly contemplating Singletary produced 98 yards to Gore’s 20, the rookie is definitely the popular fantasy possibility and a flex possibility this week in opposition to the Giants.
Carolina Panthers
WR Curtis Samuel underwhelmed in Week 1 (Four targets, three receptions, 32 yards), however do not panic simply but. Samuel was on the sphere for 59 of the workforce’s 64 offensive snaps, which was just one behind DJ Moore. Moore, Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen hoarded 81.1% (or 30) of the workforce’s 37 targets on this one — a quantity that will probably be a lot decrease (determine nearer to 60%) most weeks. Samuel stays a flex possibility.
Chicago Bears
With Chicago dumping the run whereas taking part in from behind on Thursday, RB Tarik Cohen paced the workforce’s backfield with 46 snaps performed. Mike Davis dealt with 38 and rookie David Montgomery performed 23. It isn’t ideally suited for Montgomery, whose ADP rose as excessive because the fourth spherical in the course of the offseason. Nonetheless, Chicago was held to a few factors, and it makes logical sense that his function will solely enhance within the coming weeks. Montgomery is an effective bench maintain and fringe flex possibility for now.
Cincinnati Bengals
Is third-year WR John Ross III this 12 months’s Tyler Boyd? His Week 1 efficiency suggests that could be the case. Ross exploded for seven catches, 158 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 12 targets in Week 1. He was second among the many workforce’s receivers in snaps (57) and was on the sphere for 46 of the workforce’s 56 go performs. Although FORP tells us he was a bit over his head, Ross’ 19 OFP was ninth-highest amongst vast receivers, which implies there may be loads of alternative for large fantasy manufacturing. Particularly with A.J. Inexperienced anticipated to overlook a couple of extra weeks, Ross’ huge day is sufficient to put him on the WR3 radar in opposition to the 49ers in Week 2.
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb was considered one of a prolonged checklist of underwhelming Week 1 operating backs, however the second-year again’s taking part in time presents some cause for optimism shifting ahead. Chubb racked up 17 carries and 4 targets on 45 snaps. Backup RBs Dontrell Hilliard and D’Ernest Johnson mixed for 2 carries and 4 targets on 18 snaps. Chubb nonetheless posted a top-20 OFP, and he’ll transfer even nearer to the highest of the leaderboard as soon as he inevitably manages a couple of carries close to the purpose line. He stays an RB1 on the Jets this week.
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas offense exploded for 5 touchdowns in opposition to the Giants on Sunday, however Ezekiel Elliott wasn’t an enormous a part of it (14 touches, 63 yards, 1 landing). After holding out a lot of the offseason, Elliott was restricted to 34 snaps, which wasn’t too far forward of rookie Tony Pollard (21), and his 10 OFP barely cracked the highest 30 on the place. Elliott’s function will enhance within the coming weeks, so there’s clearly no cause to panic. He is a top-four fantasy again.
Denver Broncos
With one week within the books, it seems now we have a two-man backfield committee in Denver. Phillip Lindsay dealt with 31 snaps to Royce Freeman’s 27 within the Broncos’ loss in Oakland. Lindsay held a slight edge in carries (11 to 10) and, extra importantly, seems to now be the workforce’s main passing-down again. Lindsay was focused on six of his 17 routes, whereas Freeman managed one goal on 13 routes. In the meantime, Devontae Booker did not play a snap. Lindsay is a fringe RB2 and Freeman a non-PPR flex possibility.
Detroit Lions
Rookie tight ends are nearly by no means fantasy related, however T.J. Hockenson is making a case that he’ll break the mould. Hockenson was on the sphere for 57 of Detroit’s 80 snaps Sunday, catching six of 9 targets for 131 yards and a rating. Hockenson needs to be rostered in all however shallow codecs and is a fringe TE1.
Inexperienced Bay Packers
Following Inexperienced Bay’s Week 1 victory over Chicago, there is not any longer any debate as to whom the workforce’s No. 2 vast receiver is. Marquez Valdes-Scantling performed 38 snaps, which was second to solely Davante Adams (55) and properly forward of Geronimo Allison (28), Trevor Davis (17) and Jake Kumerow (one). Valdes-Scantling is greatest left on benches in opposition to Minnesota this week, however he has WR3/flex upside in his present function.
Houston Texans
Will Fuller V was restricted to a few targets in his 2019 debut, however do not fret. The previous first spherical choose was on the sphere for 58 of the workforce’s 59 offensive snaps, which matched DeAndre Hopkins’ taking part in time. Fuller seems locked into No. 2 duties and is thus a WR3/flex possibility shifting ahead.
Indianapolis Colts
Who’s the Colts’ tight finish you need in your fantasy lineup? Nicely, possibly none following Sunday’s six-target, 31-yard mixed effort. That mentioned, it does seem Jack Doyle stays the workforce’s No. 1 on the place. Doyle performed 42 snaps (14 routes), in comparison with 25 (16) for Eric Ebron and 13 (two) for Mo Alie-Cox. Ebron has just a little extra upside within the landing division however figures to see inconsistent targets, whereas Doyle is the safer PPR possibility.
Jacksonville Jaguars
It wasn’t notably stunning attributable to their terrific matchup, however perimeter WRs Chris Conley (7 targets, 6 receptions, 97 yards, 1 TD) and DJ Chark (Four-Four-146-1) exploded onto the fantasy scene on Sunday. Conley (39 snaps) and Chark (36) each performed a beneficiant chunk of the snaps and trailed solely Dede Westbrook (41) amongst Jacksonville wideouts. The duo needs to be added to benches (Conley is the popular add), although each will probably be dangerous begins in opposition to Houston in Week 2 with rookie Gardner Minshew changing the injured Nick Foles.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
As anticipated, Damien Williams paced the Chiefs’ backfield in snaps (39) in Week 1, however LeSean McCoy (18) was considerably simpler as a rusher (81 yards on 10 carries to Williams’ 26 yards on 13 makes an attempt), leaving Williams to do most of his harm as a receiver (39 yards on seven targets). Williams’ vital receiving function in Kansas Metropolis’s pass-heavy offense makes him the popular fantasy alternative for now, however McCoy can be a viable flex, particularly contemplating his function may be very prone to increase.
Los Angeles Chargers
A lot for a 50-50 cut up. Austin Ekeler has been one of many league’s most-efficient backs since getting into the league, and that confirmed up within the snap counts (44 to 15 edge over Justin Jackson) and on the stat sheet in opposition to the Colts. Ekeler was his traditional electrical self, placing up 58 yards and one landing on 12 carries, in addition to six catches, 96 yards and two further touchdowns on seven targets. So long as Melvin Gordon is out, Ekeler will probably be a borderline top-10 fantasy RB, with Jackson serving as a shaky flex play.
Los Angeles Rams
All eyes have been on Todd Gurley II Sunday, and it is truthful to say the outcomes have been a combined bag. On the damaging aspect, he was restricted to 1 goal and deferred two speeding touchdowns to Malcolm Brown. On the plus aspect, he dominated backfield snaps (51, in comparison with 19 for Brown and two for Darrell Henderson) and was efficient (14 carries, 97 yards). Jared Goff focused his operating backs solely as soon as within the sport (a quantity that may positively rise considerably sooner or later), so we should not panic on Gurley simply but. Take into account him a great RB2 in opposition to the Saints in Week 2. Brown needs to be added, however cannot be began with confidence simply but. Enjoying 26.Four% of the snaps, together with a minimal receiving function, will not reduce it for flex worth.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have been a catastrophe almost throughout the board in Week 1, and that features the backfield. Kenyan Drake (25 snaps) loved an edge in taking part in time over Kalen Ballage (19), however Drake was held to 27 yards on six touches, whereas Ballage struggled to 12 yards on six touches. Drake is the popular fantasy play, particularly in PPR, however is extra of a flex possibility in opposition to New England this week. These of you in deep leagues might wish to throw No. three RB Mark Walton in your bench.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings wanted solely 10 go makes an attempt to beat the Falcons on Sunday, however at the least we bought a great take a look at the backfield. Dalvin Cook dinner (33 snaps) was the principle man, with Alexander Mattison (11), Ameer Abdullah (4) and Mike Boone (two) choosing up the scraps. No shock right here: Cook dinner was extraordinarily productive, placing up 120 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 23 touches. Take into account Cook dinner a viable RB1 in opposition to Inexperienced Bay in Week 2 and lock in Mattison because the handcuff.
New England Patriots
WR Josh Gordon was on the sphere for 45 of 67 snaps in his return to motion in Week 1. Gordon ran behind Julian Edelman (64 snaps) and Phillip Dorsett (60) and was focused solely 4 instances however figures to function in three-wide units with Edelman and Antonio Brown starting in Week 2. Brown is best-viewed as a fringe WR1, Edelman as a WR2 and Gordon, who has extra worth in non-PPR leagues, a WR3.
New Orleans Saints
Consider it or not, Ted Ginn Jr. is again on the fantasy radar. The 33-year-old field-stretcher was on the sphere for 33 of the Saints’ 44 go performs on Monday night time, which was sufficient to edge Tre’Quan Smith (30 routes) for No. 2 duties behind Michael Thomas (39). Ginn delivered the products, catching all seven of his targets for 101 yards. Take into account Ginn a fringe flex possibility and Smith extra of an end-of-bench stash.
New York Giants
WR Sterling Shepard underwhelmed in his debut as New York’s clear No. 1 vast receiver (7 targets, 6 receptions, 42 yards), however on the plus aspect, he was on the sphere for 65 of the workforce’s 66 offensive snaps. Evan Engram (14 targets) stole the present, however Shepard’s six receptions paced the workforce’s vast receivers. Shepard is again to working from the slot (at the least till Golden Tate returns), so he’ll dodge CB Tre’Davious White and can as an alternative play in the identical spot Jamison Crowder did when he put up a league-high 14 receptions in opposition to Buffalo in Week 1. Shepard is within the concussion protocol, but when he is cleared for Sunday, he’ll be a WR3 play.
New York Jets
RB Le’Veon Bell was anticipated to be introduced alongside slowly in his Jets debut. A lot for that. Bell was on the sphere for all 66 of New York’s offensive snaps. Bell racked up 60 yards on 17 carries, including six receptions, 32 yards and one landing as a receiver. The effectivity wasn’t nice, however Bell’s workhorse utilization confirms that he stays a robust weekly RB1 play.
Oakland Raiders
Working again Josh Jacobs was anticipated to play a large function as a ball-carrier as a rookie, and that was actually the case in Week 1. Jacobs racked up 85 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 23 carries, including a 28-yard catch on his lone goal. As famous within the above OFP chart, solely Christian McCaffrey exceeded Jacobs’ Week 1 OFP and, actually, Jacobs really fell in need of his anticipated whole. What does all of it imply? It means Jacobs has a path to an enormous rookie season and is thus a fringe RB1.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles utilized a three-headed backfield assault in Week 1, however rookie Miles Sanders was clearly main the committee. Sanders performed 36 snaps (12 touches), in comparison with 20 (12) for Darren Sproles and 16 (eight) for Jordan Howard. A second-round rookie, Sanders’ snap depend solely figures to extend because the season goes on, although he’ll be restricted to flex numbers in his present capability. He needs to be in lineups this week in opposition to an Atlanta protection that was simply gashed for 120 yards by Cook dinner.
Pittsburgh Steelers
WR James Washington flashed with a 45-yard reception on Sunday night time, however his taking part in time leaves one thing to be desired. Washington ranked fourth among the many workforce’s wideouts in go routes (29), trailing JuJu Smith-Schuster (41), Donte Moncrief (43) and Ryan Switzer (36), whereas additionally deferring work to rookie Diontae Johnson (21). Moncrief’s ugly efficiency (7 yards on 10 targets) needs to be a path to a bigger function for Washington, so maintain the explosive playmaker in your bench.
Seattle Seahawks
Rookie WR DK Metcalf was almost a full-time participant in his Seahawks debut, dealing with 38 of a attainable 49 offensive snaps. Metcalf ran a route on 22 of the workforce’s 24 go performs, which trailed solely Tyler Lockett (23) among the many workforce’s vast receivers. Metcalf trailed solely Chris Carson in targets (six) and, actually, no different Seahawk had greater than two. Metcalf’s 17.2 aDOT suggests he’ll be a growth/bust vertical menace, however with Russell Wilson underneath middle, that is sufficient to place him on the flex radar, particularly in non-PPR.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ vast receiver depth chart was tremendous tough to kind out in the course of the offseason, and Week 1 did not assist a lot. With Trent Taylor and Jalen Hurd out with accidents, Deebo Samuel (52 of 60 attainable snaps), Marquise Goodwin (45), Richie James (22), Kendrick Bourne (14) and Dante Pettis (two) carried the load. The Pettis quantity was probably the most stunning, and he ought to thus be nowhere near beginning lineups till additional discover. Samuel must also be on benches, however contemplating that no 49ers vast receiver cleared three targets on this sport, none of them needs to be in beginning lineups proper now. These of you in 12-team PPR leagues might wish to contemplate Taylor for a bench spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Following about as tough a rookie season as you will ever see, Ronald Jones burst again onto the fantasy scene with a formidable Week 1 exhibiting. Jones really completed third among the many workforce’s operating backs in snaps (21) however was considerably simpler than Peyton Barber (24) and Dare Ogunbowale (24). Jones put up 93 yards on 14 touches, which means he already cleared his yardage whole from the complete 2017 season (77 yards on 30 touches). Jones is the Buccaneers operating again you need in your roster, however contemplating he was a non-factor as a receiver (4 routes), the second-year again is greatest seen as a borderline flex in 12-team leagues.
Tennessee Titans
Rookie WR A.J. Brown produced 100 receiving yards in his NFL debut, however a deeper look suggests we should not overspend on waivers. Brown was focused solely 4 instances and his 22 snaps have been fewer than Corey Davis (41) and Tajae Sharpe (29), and simply forward of Adam Humphries (19). On the plus aspect, Brown (16) trailed solely Davis (19) in go routes, which suggests he’ll be in for a bigger function when the sport script is not calling for as many operating performs. Brown stays extra of an upside bench stash than a weekly fantasy starter.
Washington Redskins
WR Terry McLaurin was considered one of a number of rookie pass-catchers who made main noise in Week 1. McLaurin caught 5 of seven targets for 125 yards and one landing whereas taking part in 49 snaps. That was second most to Trey Quinn (52) among the many workforce’s receivers, with Paul Richardson (43) simply behind. McLaurin, who was on the sphere for 36 of 41 go performs, is already a full-time participant and dealing with a stable goal share. His velocity and downfield playmaking capacity (20.Four aDOT) have been on full show, so he needs to be a waiver precedence this week regardless of Washington’s shaky quarterback scenario. Take into account McLaurin a borderline flex in 12-plus workforce leagues, although there’s room for extra.