From Ohio State to Kansas, what to anticipate from each first-year coach
Invoice ConnellyESPN
A head teaching rent is terrifying. You are able to do all of the analysis on this planet, discuss to tons of individuals, pay search companies a whole bunch of 1000’s of , and you might nonetheless find yourself changing a Steve Spurrier with a Ron Zook.
After all, it is also a possibility to switch a John Blake with a Bob Stoops. All of it relies on circumstance and expectation.
For every of FBS’s 27 new head coaches, there waits a unique mixture of things and targets. Roughly talking, every of the next fall into certainly one of 4 classes:
* Those that have to make a robust run on the nationwide title
* Those that have to make a robust run at a division title or extra
* Those that both have to make a bowl to earn goodwill, or, in some circumstances, not less than nonetheless be threatening to take action into November
* These for whom 2019 is a Yr Zero scenario. In these conditions, the rebuild is critical, and the short-term report does not matter. The aim is solely to place the items in the best locations for 2020 and past and, hopefully, play higher in November than September.
Let’s dive into who suits the place.
Contend for a nationwide title
Ohio State (Ryan Day)
2018 report: 13-1
Projected 2019 wins: Eight.7 (FPI) to 9.Eight (S&P+)
Odds of successful convention (per FPI): Eight%
Day’s first head teaching gig comes at a college that has completed sixth or higher within the AP ballot for 13 of the previous 17 years, hasn’t misplaced greater than two video games in a season since 2011, and has misplaced solely as soon as to its chief rival since 2003. FPI initiatives his first staff to lose three video games, together with one to mentioned rival. No stress in any way!
Ohio State is likely one of the few applications for which each loss is an all-caps BREAKING NEWS story. It’s all the time going to be a high-upside, high-stress job, and in following in City Meyer’s footsteps, Day takes the job at perhaps its highest stress and highest upside. Solely two or three groups can match the top-to-bottom expertise stage in Columbus, and if blue-chip switch Justin Fields is able to play just like the QB he is presupposed to be — and if he stays wholesome — the sky stays the restrict.
Make a run at a division or convention title
Appalachian State (Eliah Drinkwitz)
2018 report: 11-2
Projected 2019 wins: 9.Zero (FPI) to 10.7 (S&P+)
Odds of successful convention (per FPI): 42%
The groups on this batch both received sufficient video games to lose their coach to a different program or, in a few cases, maintain excessive requirements they have not met shortly.
For Appalachian State, it’s extremely a lot the previous. Scott Satterfield left for Louisville after successful 46 of his final 57 video games (together with final fall’s inaugural Solar Belt Championship Sport), and he leaves Drinkwitz with a roster loaded with impression juniors. App has all of the expertise and upside required for one more convention title run, and Mountaineer followers realize it. Drinkwitz was a worthy rent — a department on the Gus Malzahn teaching tree, he was an offensive co-coordinator by age 29 and spent the previous three years crafting a enjoyable, pass-first offense at NC State, three hours east. However any slippage this fall might be pinned to him; that makes issues awfully difficult.
Houston (Dana Holgorsen)
2018 report: Eight-5
Projected 2019 wins: 5.Eight (FPI) to six.Three (S&P+)
Odds of successful convention: Three%
Credit score the place it is due: Houston stored its phrase. Two years after the varsity president mentioned, “We’ll fireplace coaches at Eight-Four,” Main Applewhite went Eight-Four and bought fired. For a college that has topped eight wins solely 5 occasions prior to now 28 years, the Cougars are enjoying a difficult expectations recreation, however they’re additionally spending like an influence convention staff. That’ll assist.
Additionally they bought themselves an influence convention coach. They pulled Holgorsen away from a stale marriage in West Virginia, they shelled out for his assistant coaches, and so they’re handing him probably the most thrilling quarterbacks (D’Eriq King), and one of many extra skilled offenses, in school soccer. The schedule is tough, although. It options Oklahoma, Washington State and North Texas in non-conference, plus UCF and Cincinnati in AAC cross-division play. Going Eight-Four could be a little bit of an accomplishment, whether or not or not it is considered as such.
Dana Holgorsen’s transfer from West Virginia to Houston may shake up your entire Group of 5. Bob Levey/Getty Photos
Miami (Manny Diaz)
2018 report: 7-6
Projected 2019 wins: Eight.Three (FPI) to eight.Eight (S&P+)
Odds of successful convention: Three%
Talking of faculties with “expectations vs. actuality” points. …
Diaz is the most recent coach requested to revive The U to its former glory. Out of the gate, expectations appear excessive however manageable. Nobody expects the Hurricanes to win the ACC — not with Clemson nonetheless Clemsoning everywhere. (FPI offers the Tigers an 88% likelihood of successful the league crown; Miami’s Three% odds are second greatest.) They’re, nevertheless, anticipated to win the Coastal Division and perhaps not get fairly as embarrassed by Clemson as they did in 2017. Beating in-state rivals Florida and/or Florida State would not be a foul concept, both.
If Diaz and offensive coordinator Dan Enos can produce stable quarterback play, they’re going to have an honest shot at assembly expectations. Is Ohio State switch Tate Martell the reply? Can the offense often create good discipline place for a protection that needs to be sturdy once more?
Northern Illinois (Thomas Hammock)
2018 report: Eight-6
Projected 2019 wins: 5.2 (FPI) to six.Eight (S&P+)
Odds of successful convention: Four%
Rod Carey left behind an odd set of expectations when he took the Temple job. On one hand, NIU has reached the MAC title recreation in seven of the previous 9 seasons; on the opposite, the Huskies have regressed not less than barely, per S&P+, for 5 of the previous six years. Final yr’s MAC title win was a defense-heavy magic trick.
As a substitute of aiming for teaching continuity as they did when Dave Doeren left for NC State in 2013 — Carey was Doeren’s offensive coordinator — the Huskies are beginning anew. A former NIU working again and assistant, Hammock spent the previous 5 seasons as a place coach with the Baltimore Ravens. He hasn’t coached in school since 2013 and hasn’t coached within the MAC since 2006. Will he want a reset yr to determine issues out? And the way lengthy will NIU boosters give him if he does?
Temple (Rod Carey)
2018 report: Eight-5
Projected 2019 wins: 6.7 (FPI) to 7.5 (S&P+)
Odds of successful convention: 1%
Temple has turn into a ending faculty of types for big-time coaches. The earlier 5 males employed by the varsity have been employed away by power-conference applications, and one did not even coach a recreation there! Manny Diaz was the primary alternative to switch Geoff Collins again in December, however when Miami pulled Diaz away a few weeks later, Temple went to Plan B: NIU’s Carey.
Carey’s Huskies regressed many of the years he was in DeKalb, however they did one factor that Temple enjoys: play wonderful protection. They had been 23rd in defensive S&P+, and Carey and defensive coordinator Jeff Knowles ought to work out enjoyable issues to do with a dynamic and skilled entrance seven. Offense helps, too, and it is arduous to know what to anticipate there. However with eight projected one-possession video games (per S&P+), just a bit overachievement may produce a darkish horse division-title run.
1 Associated
Troy (Chip Lindsey)
2018 report: 10-Three
Projected 2019 wins: 6.6 (S&P+) to six.Eight (FPI)
Odds of successful convention: 7%
Troy made simply two head teaching hires between 1989 and 2018 and nailed them each. First, Larry Blakeney received 178 video games whereas overseeing the rise from Division II to FCS to FBS; then, when Blakeney’s success trailed off on the finish, Neal Brown took over and rejuvenated issues.
Lindsey, an Alabama lifer and one-time Blakeney assistant, takes over this system at practically its highest ebb. That is an virtually assured solution to fall in need of expectations. The Trojans went 31-Eight in Brown’s final three seasons, beating LSU and Nebraska alongside the way in which, and there is virtually nowhere to go however down. Lindsey does inherit a superb senior quarterback (Kaleb Barker), a robust working again corps, and a protection that has ranked within the high 50 in defensive S&P+ for 3 consecutive years. With Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State all visiting Troy, Lindsey may have an opportunity to make some noise.
Utah State (Gary Andersen)
2018 report: 11-2
Projected 2019 wins: 5.5 (FPI) to 7.Four (S&P+)
Odds of successful convention: Three%
Utah State might need concurrently made probably the most logical and befuddling rent of the teaching cycle.
Logical: Andersen was the architect of the Aggies’ rebuild, inheriting a program that had received six video games in three years, successful seven video games by his third yr and 11 by his fourth. And he hasn’t been gone that lengthy.
Befuddling: Since leaving Logan, Andersen has been unmoored. He left for Wisconsin however bailed after two years; he landed at Oregon State, the place he bailed after simply two and a half. Utah State, in the meantime, proved it may win with out him.
Andersen has excellent quarterback Jordan Love at his disposal, however the Aggies have large holes to fill on the depth chart at receiver, OL, linebacker and security. The varsity gave Matt Wells time to seek out himself, and it paid off handsomely, however does Andersen have the endurance to rebuild once more if yr one does not go as deliberate?
Make a run at 6-6
Charlotte (Will Healy)
2018 report: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: Four.5 (FPI) to Four.6 (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 24%
Brad Lambert could not fairly get Charlotte over the hump — the 49ers completed 5-7 after shedding two one-score video games (each of which concerned the opponent returning a fumble for a landing) in convention play. Win both recreation, and he in all probability saves his job, regardless that Charlotte wasn’t notably good.
Healy earned headlines for resurrecting the moribund Austin Peay program a few years in the past, so we all know he will not panic if issues do not come collectively within the brief time period. Nonetheless, whereas the 49ers are projected simply 117th in S&P+ and 121st in FPI, they’ll have an outdoor shot of bowling if he can complement an skilled protection (which improved to 98th in defensive S&P+ final season) with something, completely something, offensively. Operating again Benny LeMay and sophomore receivers Victor Tucker and Rico Arnold give him not less than somewhat one thing to work with.
Coastal Carolina (Jamey Chadwell)
2018 report: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: Four.2 (S&P+) to five.Zero (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 17%
Chadwell solely type of qualifies as a first-year coach. He led the Chanticleers as an interim in 2017, when head coach Joe Moglia stepped away to cope with well being points. Moglia returned for 2018, then retired for good. Chadwell was the plain successor.
Regardless of a dreadful protection, Coastal got here inside a 31-28 loss to South Alabama of reaching bowl eligibility final season. An thrilling offense now has to switch quarterback Kilton Anderson, however two freshmen noticed fairly a little bit of enjoying time, and with working again CJ Marable and an skilled offensive line, the Chants’ run-heavy assault ought to stay harmful. However with out huge defensive enchancment, one other run at six wins might be tough. Coastal is a projected favourite in solely three to 4 video games and might be a relentless underdog over the again half of the schedule. Win early, get to Four-Eight or 5-7, and begin constructing long-term.
Mel Tucker leaves Kirby Good’s Georgia workers to tackle a problem at Colorado. Joe Amon/The Denver Publish/Getty Photos
Colorado (Mel Tucker)
2018 report: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: Three.9 (FPI) to Four.5 (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 25%
In every of the 2 years since their 2016 Pac-12 South title run, the Buffaloes completed simply 5-7. They began Three-Zero in 2017 and 5-Zero in 2018, then fell other than there. That units a fairly pure bar at .500 for Tucker, a former NFL (and Georgia) defensive coordinator and first-time head coach. So does the urge to not waste what is probably going receiver Laviska Shenault Jr.’s final season in Boulder.
Clearing that bar might be tough, although. Quarterback Steven Montez and a stable secondary return, however a dreadful run recreation won’t enhance, and the defensive entrance seven might be extremely inexperienced. And whereas the schedule does not characteristic many certain losses, it has even fewer certain wins. Expectations and actuality have not performed properly in Boulder for some time now, and 2019 won’t be any totally different, even when Tucker ultimately seems to be a robust rent.
East Carolina (Mike Houston)
2018 report: Three-9
Projected 2019 wins: 5.1 (S&P+) to five.5 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 37%
ECU was, for some time, the portrait of regular high quality. From 2006-14, the Pirates averaged eight wins per yr and bowled eight of 9 occasions. However they fell to 5-7 in 2015 and, in an try to sustain with the young-coach-hiring Joneses within the AAC, fired Ruffin McNeill in favor of Scottie Montgomery. Three years and solely 9 wins later, they had been out there once more.
Mike Houston was an apparent improve on paper, and he’ll have an opportunity to start out sturdy. The previous James Madison head coach and 2016 FCS nationwide champ practically took the Charlotte job however landed in Greenville as a substitute, and he’ll have an opportunity to instantly enhance ECU again to not less than its 2015 ranges. He inherits from Montgomery a high-profile sophomore quarterback (Holton Ahlers), an skilled two-deep, and 5 – 6 winnable video games, most of which come at the start of the season.
Kansas State (Chris Klieman)
2018 report: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: Four.9 (S&P+) to five.Three (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 33%
Invoice Snyder did his successor a favor by trailing off on the finish. He averaged solely seven wins per yr over his last 4 seasons, and final fall he did not make a bowl for the primary time in 9 years. Klieman, the immensely profitable former North Dakota State head coach, is aware of what it takes to succeed a legend, however the bar is not as excessive in Manhattan because it was in Fargo.
Nonetheless, the KSU soccer program has been a aircraft solely Snyder may fly, and it might assist to assuage considerations if Klieman received a couple of of the various projected shut video games on the schedule and not less than matched final yr’s win whole. There is a slight likelihood of a “nobody can win with Snyder’s recruits however him” scenario, and a ensuing Yr Zero, however with quarterback Skylar Thompson and a veteran-heavy two-deep, Klieman’s bought some instruments within the software field.
Liberty (Hugh Freeze)
2018 report: 6-6
Projected 2019 wins: 5.6 (FPI) to five.7 (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 54%
Ole Miss’ former head coach takes over, and predecessor Turner Gill didn’t go away him a naked cabinet … or a difficult schedule. The Flames return a Three,000-yard passer (Stephen Calvert), a 1,000-yard rusher (Frankie Hickson), a 1,000-yard receiver (Antonio Gandy-Golden), and a veteran-heavy protection. Granted, subsequent yr’s staff might be beginning over from an expertise standpoint, however Freeze has the chance to hit the bottom working.
Liberty might be favored in six or seven video games, and S&P+ offers the staff a greater than 50% shot of reaching bowl eligibility. That makes it each a symbolic and real looking aim. Granted, that does not guarantee that the Flames will make a bowl — they’ve a secondary Remedy Bowl tie-in that calls on them if the Solar Belt and/or AAC aren’t in a position to fill their allotted slot there — however if you happen to get to 6 wins, you’ve got completed your half.
Maryland (Mike Locksley)
2018 report: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: Four.1 (FPI) to Four.7 (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 29%
As I wrote in my Massive Ten East preview, Locksley obtained one thing uncommon this offseason: a shot at head teaching redemption. He was a ghastly 2-26 at New Mexico practically a decade in the past, and he maybe faces extra burden of proof than many of the males on this record. And with a top-20 schedule that options not solely the everyday Massive Ten East heavyweights but in addition Minnesota and Nebraska from the West and non-conference battles with Syracuse and Temple, proving himself could be tough in yr one.
He’ll have a shot, although. His first Terps squad will characteristic a veteran QB (most definitely, Virginia Tech switch Josh Jackson) and a talent corps loaded with explosive sophomores like working again Anthony McFarland and receivers Dontay Demus and Jeshaun Jones. And a protection that ranked 51st in defensive S&P+ final yr each returns some veterans and added a couple of transfers.
Mack is again! Can the longtime coach return to kind in his second go-round at North Carolina? AP Picture/Gerry Broome
North Carolina (Mack Brown)
2018 report: 2-9
Projected 2019 wins: Four.5 (S&P+) to five.Four (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 25%
Brown inherits a program that’s caught someplace in between a rebuild and a possible rebound. On one hand, the Tar Heels have received 5 video games in two years and might be beginning both a real or redshirt freshman at quarterback. That is a Yr Zero scenario if ever one existed.
Then again, you do not rent a 67-year-old head coach with the thought of taking over a long-term rebuild. Plus, UNC is skilled just about in every single place apart from quarterback and will boast each an amazing run recreation — fairly the QB protector — and a stellar move protection.
An early upset win over both South Carolina (which could not defend the run final yr) or Miami (which could not move) may set off a Three-1 begin and make a bowl run a chance into November. Even when it falls brief, that may seemingly create sufficient buzz for Brown to maintain recruiting nicely.
Texas State (Jake Spavital)
2018 report: Three-9
Projected 2019 wins: 5.2 (FPI) to five.5 (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 50%
Spavital served as Dana Holgorsen’s offensive coordinator at West Virginia for the previous two seasons, and so they each moved again to Texas within the offseason. Holgo is at Houston, whereas Spav is two-and-a-half hours away in San Marcos, taking over probably the most befuddling jobs in FBS. Texas State is completely positioned from a recruiting perspective, however a flaky and unreliable administration made Everett Withers’ job more durable than it may have been, and he went simply 7-28 in three seasons.
Because of heavy returning manufacturing and an thrilling protection, nevertheless, the Bobcats would have been projected to take a pleasant step ahead had Withers obtained a fourth yr. However his loss might be Spavital’s achieve: If he and offensive coordinator Bob Stitt — of Colorado College of Mines and Montana fame — present any type of offensive bump, Texas State may threaten bowl eligibility towards a fairly manageable schedule.
Texas Tech (Matt Wells)
2018 report: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: 6.Four (S&P+) to six.7 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 73%
Kliff Kingsbury actually was shut to creating issues work in Lubbock. Granted, issues labored out fairly nicely for him — he someway managed to leap from fired school head coach to newly employed NFL head coach this previous winter — however he had lastly managed to supervise some defensive enchancment final fall (to 81st in defensive S&P+), and Tech was averaging 45.9 factors per recreation with freshman Alan Bowman at quarterback. However Bowman bought damage, Tech averaged 20.Three factors with out him, and the Pink Raiders went from 5-2 to 5-7.
Wells subsequently inherits perhaps probably the most pleasant scenario of any new coach: Tech has completed with a successful report solely as soon as prior to now 5 seasons however virtually definitely would have final yr if not for Bowman’s harm. So if Wells can merely fulfill final season’s promise with Bowman and a lineup loaded with upperclassmen, then he is a Yr 1 success.
West Virginia (Neal Brown)
2018 report: Eight-Four
Projected 2019 wins: Four.6 (FPI) to six.Zero (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 60%
West Virginia is certainly one of 2019’s greatest mysteries, as evidenced by the gap between FPI’s and S&P+’s respective projections. The Mountaineers have to switch beginning quarterback Will Grier, 4 of final yr’s high 5 receivers, three of final yr’s high 4 defensive linemen, and half the two-deep within the secondary. That, mixed with a possible tradition change, may lead to not less than a short lived setback in Morgantown.
There is a fairly clear path to one thing respectable, although. Brown was phenomenal at Troy — after a first-year reset, granted — and inherits simply sufficient that he’ll have an opportunity at first-year success. WVU boasts fairly a couple of intriguing QB and WR candidates, the run recreation might be dynamite and, nicely, the Mountaineers’ defensive entrance was already fairly unhealthy final yr. It isn’t prone to get all that a lot worse. And whereas the schedule is hard, it may enable for a quick begin.
Western Kentucky (Tyson Helton)
2018 report: Three-9
Projected 2019 wins: 5.1 (S&P+) to six.2 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 39%
Mike Sanford’s ache might be Helton’s achieve. Sanford was fired after simply two seasons and a 9-16 report, however final yr’s Hilltoppers squad was tremendous younger — freshman and sophomore QBs, freshman RBs, sophomore OLs and a protection for which solely three of the highest 14 tacklers had been seniors. If you’ve fallen from 11 wins to a few in simply two seasons, that appears to arrange like a Yr Zero scenario. However in Bowling Inexperienced, it won’t be.
Helton was Jeff Brohm’s offensive coordinator at Western Kentucky in 2014-15, so he is aware of the panorama and maybe a couple of of the upperclassmen. His first-year success will are available in his means to develop what was a younger and really terrible offense final fall. The Hilltoppers had been 120th in offensive S&P+ and had topped 28 factors solely as soon as of their first 10 video games earlier than breaking out for 70 within the last two.
Yr Zero
Akron (Tom Arth)
2018 report: Four-Eight
Projected 2019 wins: Three.5 (S&P+) to Four.1 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility (per S&P+): 9%
Terry Bowden had his moments at Akron — an Eight-5 report and No. 81 S&P+ rating in 2015, an unbelievable MAC East title in 2017, an equally unbelievable upset of Northwestern in early-2018. However after back-to-back finishes within the 120s in S&P+, Bowden was fired and changed by nearly probably the most Northeastern Ohio coach conceivable.
Arth attended Cleveland’s Saint Ignatius Excessive and went to school at close by John Carroll. He grew to become head coach at his alma mater by age 32, moved as much as FCS Chattanooga at 36, and bought an FBS call-up, again in NE Ohio, at 38. He inherits a staff that was horrible on offense (however returns seven starters) and compelling on protection (however returns solely 4 starters). The Zips are apparent favorites in zero video games, however a handful of tossup video games ought to imply not less than a small handful of wins.
Bowling Inexperienced (Scot Loeffler)
2018 report: Three-9
Projected 2019 wins: Three.Zero (S&P+) to Four.Three (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: Three%
The final time Bowling Inexperienced made a training rent, the athletic director mainly Googled “good offense,” then employed the primary particular person he may afford from the staff that performed good offense.
By comparability, the method that led to the rent of Loeffler — a 44-year-old former offensive coordinator at Temple, Auburn, Virginia Tech and BC who, in contrast to predecessor Mike Jinks, had truly entertained ideas of changing into a head coach — was downright logical. It nonetheless produced an odd conclusion, although.
Per S&P+, Loeffler was by no means the coordinator for a top-50 offense, and in three seasons at BC, he mainly had one good month, late in 2017. His coordinators (Terry Malone on offense, Brian VanGorder on protection) are veterans with shaky monitor data, too. And now, he’ll presumably attempt to set up a extra bodily philosophy onto personnel designed for unfold and velocity. Even when it will definitely works, it in all probability will not in 2019.
Central Michigan (Jim McElwain)
2018 report: 1-11
Projected 2019 wins: Three.Four (S&P+) to Four.6 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 7%
Earlier than he grew to become head coach at Colorado State and Florida, McElwain had a stable monitor report as an offensive coordinator at Montana State, Fresno State and Alabama. We’ll see how lengthy it takes him to do some injury with a CMU staff that conspicuously forgot methods to transfer the soccer final season. The Chippewas had been useless final in offensive S&P+, averaging simply 15 factors per recreation (third-worst in FBS) and three.Eight yards per play (worst). Transfers equivalent to former Tennessee quarterback Quentin Dormady and former Virginia Tech receiver Kalil Pimpleton may help with normal competence, however this offense has a mountain to climb simply to get again to mediocrity.
Oh yeah, and the Chips have to switch virtually their whole beginning entrance seven from an honest protection, too. The secondary might be downright good, however that in all probability will not matter till CMU can truly rating factors once more.
Georgia Tech (Geoff Collins)
2018 report: 7-6
Projected 2019 wins: Three.7 (FPI) to Four.2 (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 18%
Protected to say, Collins has the vitality to face up to a reset yr. The Waffle Home-loving, coffee-powered former SEC defensive coordinator and Temple head coach waited some time to get this chance, and his first Yellow Jackets squad goes to require all types of perseverance.
First, he has to transition his offensive personnel from Paul Johnson’s unfold choice to one thing somewhat extra commonplace. Whether or not he has the quarterback, receivers or offensive line to take action stays to be seen. Second, he has to determine methods to flip round a protection that ranked 100th in defensive S&P+ and should substitute each its high 4 general tacklers and its high 4 linemen. That is going to be a crazy-young staff, and although Collins’ early recruiting returns are intriguing (he is introduced in a wave of transfers), that is in all probability an excessive amount of newness to supply wins any time quickly.
The Les Miles-Kansas marriage might be probably the most intriguing storylines of the 2019 season. Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports activities
Kansas (Les Miles)
2018 report: Three-9
Projected 2019 wins: 2.7 (FPI) to 2.Eight (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 2%
A coach nobody appeared to need took a job nobody wished to take. That might be the primary line from what finally ends up being an unimaginable redemption story. It may additionally present affirmation as to why each events had been seemingly undesirable.
Miles final coached in 2016. He ought to be capable to improve the infrastructure in Lawrence over the subsequent few years, and he would possibly be capable to recruit to a extra bodily id. However within the brief time period, he inherits a roster that has mainly one participant certain to have made his two-deep at LSU: working again Pooka Williams. There’s measurement on the offensive line and expertise within the secondary, however in a Massive 12 with an unlimited center class, the Jayhawks have a lot floor to make as much as hope for rather more than a few cupcake wins and a convention upset in 2019.
Louisville (Scott Satterfield)
2018 report: 2-10
Projected 2019 wins: Four.2 (S&P+) to Four.Four (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 17%
Satterfield noticed unimaginable success at Appalachian State, the place he had beforehand performed quarterback and spent greater than a decade as an assistant. He took over for legendary head coach Jerry Moore, and after an preliminary stumble (he misplaced 13 of his first 18 video games), he completed 46-11 in Boone.
How a lot of that success was as a result of App State tradition and his familiarity with it? How a lot will translate at a college that simply witnessed probably the most rapid-fire collapses you will ever see? Bobby Petrino left smoking wreckage behind in Louisville, and Satterfield’s first beginning lineup may characteristic as few as six to eight seniors. The QB group misplaced all confidence final fall. There are definitely some thrilling younger athletes — QB Malik Cunningham, WR TuTu Atwell, CB Anthony Johnson, DE Jarrett Jackson, and so on. — however Satterfield has to construct a brand new tradition from scratch. That is not normally an in a single day process.
UMass (Walt Bell)
2018 report: Four-Eight
Projected 2019 wins: Three.5 (S&P+) to three.6 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: Eight%
The excellent news: Mark Whipple got here shut. The now-former UMass head coach went Four-Eight in each 2017 and 2018, fielding a prolific offense in each years. 4 one-possession losses prevented the Minutemen from being bowl eligible in 2017, and the presence of men like All-American receiver Andy Isabella proved you could entice, or not less than develop, high-end expertise in Amherst.
The unhealthy information: Just one facet of the ball had expertise. Whipple’s Minutemen solely as soon as cracked the general S&P+ high 100 (99th in 2015), and his protection ranked 124th final yr. Now the offense has to switch Isabella, practically each working again, three line starters and each main quarterbacks. The 35-year-old Bell already has 5 years of offensive coordinator expertise at Arkansas State, Maryland and Florida State, however the Minutemen are beginning over on either side of the ball. That is in all probability going to be a sluggish construct.