Lowe: This dangerous commerce is Houston’s all-in transfer
As discussions between the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder on a blockbuster deal for Russell Westbrook grew severe Thursday, Daryl Morey, Houston’s common supervisor, referred to as James Harden to debate how each stars may work collectively. Harden gently reduce Morey off and reminded him: “I understand how to play with Russ and he is aware of easy methods to play with me,” Morey recounted to ESPN.com late Thursday in Las Vegas.
They performed collectively for 3 seasons, two of the three foundational superstars who drove the Thunder to the 2012 Finals. Harden was 22 when LeBron James and the Miami Warmth overwhelmed Oklahoma Metropolis in that collection. Westbrook and Kevin Durant have been 23. They have been one of many youngest groups ever to advance thus far. They regarded like a dynasty within the making.
Harden by no means performed one other sport for Oklahoma Metropolis. The Thunder traded him to the Rockets in October 2012, in a deal that has proved to be a pivotal second in NBA historical past. The commerce didn’t kill Oklahoma Metropolis. The Thunder by no means reached the Finals once more, however they made legit runs in 2013, 2014 and 2016. Accidents derailed the primary two — two extra “what-ifs.”
The 73-win Warriors rallied from a Three-1 deficit in opposition to Oklahoma Metropolis in 2016, an all-time intestine punch. The Thunder did not simply beat Golden State in Video games Three and four of that collection. They overwhelmed them with dimension and velocity and athleticism. They made the Warriors look helpless. They turned the staff Sam Presti, its architect, envisioned — the staff the remainder of the league feared the Thunder may grow to be.
And the Warriors summoned one thing extra, as a result of the Warriors are champions (even when they weren’t champions on the finish of that season). Klay Thompson’s 11 Three-pointers in Sport 6 to avoid wasting Golden State’s season actually modified the whole panorama of the league for the following half-decade. The historical past of the NBA within the 2010s is maybe extra carefully interwoven with the historical past of the Thunder than it’s with another staff — even when the Thunder by no means received the championship within the Westbrook period.
If it’s important to boil that historical past down to 2 moments, they’re the Harden commerce and that fateful Sport 6. The primary value Oklahoma Metropolis a participant who has completed within the prime 5 in MVP voting 5 instances since. The second may need value them a title, and an opportunity to maintain Durant.
Harden turned a distinct type of participant in Houston, and has shape-shifted since into one thing we’ve by no means fairly seen. Westbrook turned a really totally different participant when Durant left him as the one remaining star in Oklahoma Metropolis. They’re in all probability the 2 most ball-dominant gamers within the NBA. They’ve recorded the 2 highest single-season utilization charges in NBA historical past: Westbrook in 2017, Harden in 2019. They have been the top-two finishers in one of the contentious MVP races ever, and one of many pleasant subplots of this unusual, fascinating commerce shall be watching die-hard Houston followers grapple with accepting the star they derided as an unjust MVP usurper.
Of their years aside, Westbrook and Harden have developed such singularly relentless, controlling kinds that it’s laborious to think about them taking part in another approach. It’s nearly laborious to recollect how they meshed seven and eight seasons in the past. Houston is betting the 2 stars can bear in mind — that they will ease again into outdated habits, and mix what they’re now with what they as soon as have been collectively.
That was Harden’s message to Morey over the cellphone on Thursday. That was Westbrook’s message in selecting the Rockets as one among his locations — together with the Warmth, who could now pursue Paul as one thing of a comfort prize. (The Rockets hoped to show the deal right into a three-team commerce, in line with ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. That they may not accomplish that suggests Presti may really feel he can wring extra for Paul by doing that deal on his personal. Buying and selling Paul might additionally deflate Oklahoma Metropolis’s win whole, and vault the Thunder larger within the 2020 draft. An under-the-radar loser right here: Atlanta, which owns Oklahoma Metropolis’s lottery-protected 2022 first-round decide. The Thunder are beginning a deep rebuild. If that decide falls within the lottery, the Hawks get two second-rounders as a substitute.)
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Westbrook was captivated with taking part in with Harden once more, per sources conversant in the talks. That sort of buy-in issues. Each superstars must change for this to work, despite the fact that Mike D’Antoni will in all probability stagger minutes as rigidly as he did with Harden and Paul. D’Antoni’s expertise teaching Westbrook on Group USA boosted Houston’s consolation stage making this deal, sources say. The Thunder belonged to Westbrook in nearly each approach. The Rockets don’t. Possibly that alone will spur some change in him.
The Harden-Paul mixture labored so properly partially as a result of Paul is deadly on catch-and-shoot 3s. Westbrook is just not. Westbrook has hit about 33% of such photographs mixed over the previous three seasons, per NBA.com. He is among the worst high-volume Three-point shooters in NBA historical past.
He has, frankly, been ineffective away from the ball, save for the occasional slash inside for an offensive rebound. (Steven Adams is perhaps the most important winner on this deal, by the best way. He can truly seize some defensive rebounds now. He is among the league’s burliest rebounders, and but his profession defensive rebounding charge is sort of on par with that of Andrea Bargnani — one of many worst large man rebounders ever.)
Westbrook hardly ever cuts when another person has the controls. He did take pleasure in chopping baseline for dunks out of 1 scripted motion centered round Durant, however that set left with Durant. He principally chills properly past the Three-point line, palms on knees.
Defenders have discovered to disregard Westbrook when he goes into passive off-ball mode. That may now quantity to a double-team on Harden. Relying on how a lot time stays on the shot clock, clogging the paint might short-circuit Houston’s offense.
There’s an apparent resolution: Give the ball to Westbrook rather a lot! Harden is a significantly better shooter than Westbrook. He attracts extra consideration away from the ball. He can relaxation extra whereas Westbrook runs the present. He’ll get extra catch-and-shoot 3s, and he tried solely 70 of them amongst 1,028 Three-pointers final season, per NBA.com. The Rockets may generate simpler fast-break buckets with Westbrook rebounding and sprinting the ball up the ground like a madman.
None of that is unfamiliar to Harden. He simply spent two seasons sharing the offense with one other of the league’s most ball-dominant gamers in Paul — a traditional, old-school puppet-master level guard. Their partnership appeared uneasy at instances. A bit awkward. Harden is just not precisely an active-ball cutter. However the Paul-Harden duet bought the Rockets inside a whisker of the 2018 Finals, the place they’d probably have been heavy favorites in opposition to LeBron’s final Cleveland staff.
Westbrook’s shaky jumper makes this partnership a bit extra sophisticated. Harden may need to cede extra ballhandling responsibility to Westbrook once they share the ground than he did with Paul. The Rockets know that. They’re excited to see what Westbrook can do working pick-and-rolls with Clint Capela and three succesful shooters — Harden, P.J. Tucker and Eric Gordon in Houston’s projected beginning lineup — flanking them. The ground will open up much more when Houston goes to its Tuckwagon lineup, with Tucker at middle over Capela.
Westbrook hardly ever loved that sort of pristine spacing in Oklahoma Metropolis. There was all the time not less than one different participant — a bricky wing, a paint-bound energy ahead — cramping area for Westbrook and Adams. For all his flaws and obvious decline over the previous two seasons, Westbrook remains to be a monster athlete. He will get from the arc to the rim sooner than nearly anybody. When defenders duck beneath picks — a standard tactic in opposition to Westbrook — he can generally put his head down and beat them to the opposite aspect of that display screen anyway. Coping with Westbrook takes a psychological and bodily toll. He’s all the time coming at you. All the time. It wears.
When Westbrook did get probabilities to run an actual unfold pick-and-roll in Oklahoma Metropolis, defenses had few solutions past hoping somebody would miss an open kickout Three.
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With Russell Westbrook and James Harden set to reunite with the Rockets, listed here are their top-five performs as teammates on the Thunder.
In fact, attending to that look a bit extra entails shifting the ball from Harden’s palms into Westbrook’s. Harden is healthier with the ball than Westbrook. It is not shut, or not less than it hasn’t been for years now. Harden has been extra environment friendly in pick-and-rolls, isolations, even in transition. Taking the ball from one participant and giving to a worse participant is usually a nasty thought.
However Houston is hoping it’s extra imperfect resolution than dangerous thought. They’ll do it solely a lot, anyway. Dealing to pair Westbrook and Harden is a wager that they’re nonetheless malleable after years of attending to do no matter they’ve needed. The Rockets will want Westbrook to chop when Harden has the ball; to run into Harden’s kickout passes, catch them at full velocity, and zip by defenders who had planted themselves within the paint; to rediscover his transition effectivity; to display screen for Harden, and vice versa, when matchups name for it.
Harden has to do all of the above, too. They each need to recommit to protection.
Westbrook is 3½ years youthful than Paul. At backside, it is a expertise play by Houston. Throughout Harden’s championship window, the Rockets method one-for-one trades with a quite simple calculus: Are we getting the higher participant proper now? Most statistics counsel they’re, even when the present per-minute hole is fairly small — too small to justify coughing up two picks and two decide swaps when there was not a lot of a marketplace for Westbrook. Age suggests the hole will widen in the course of the lifetime of Westbrook’s contract, which runs one yr longer than Paul’s. The Rockets are additionally betting Westbrook’s deal shall be simpler to commerce if it involves that.
The considering goes that as Paul ages, his superior match subsequent to Harden will not matter as a lot as Westbrook’s superior expertise — and that Westbrook and Harden will iron out not less than a few of these match points.
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The worth is basically the difficulty. Most rebuilding groups with holes at level guard — or simply numerous holes — expressed little curiosity in giving up any actual belongings for Westbrook, sources say. Which may have modified by Dec. 15, when most free brokers signed this week grow to be trade-eligible once more — and by which level some staff will really feel extra determined than it does right now. However given the preliminary cool response to Westbrook’s availability, the Thunder have been appropriate to pounce early. (I’ve stated many instances I’d not have given up any actual belongings for Westbrook. The Warmth buying and selling Goran Dragic and blah contracts for him appeared like a good endgame. The market was certainly cool. However bear in mind the outdated NBA adage: It solely takes one.)
They weren’t going to ship him to some woebegone vacation spot. They might not deal with the MVP who stayed that approach. That left Miami and Houston. It’s unclear if Miami was a serious-enough suitor for Houston to surrender all of those draft belongings.
The Warmth do not have quite a lot of these left to commerce, and that sophisticated talks for Westbrook. They may have been reluctant to deal Bam Adebayo or Justise Winslow; with one or each gone, who would Westbrook and Jimmy Butler play with long-term?
Miami already owes two first-rounders (their 2021 decide, and a protected 2023 decide) to Oklahoma Metropolis, a dynamic that sophisticated commerce prospects. Would the Thunder commerce Miami a participant who may enhance the Warmth — and thus devalue the picks Miami has to ship the Thunder?
However there have been methods round that constraint. The Thunder might have pushed Miami to raise protections on the 2023 decide. They might have traded each again to Miami and pushed for some or the entire Warmth’s 2022, 2024 and 2026 picks. Extending the duty to 2024 and later would have delayed the switch of these picks properly past the primes of Westbrook and Butler — in different phrases, right into a future with the next probability of the Warmth being dangerous. The 2022 draft is perhaps the long-awaited tremendous draft, with each highschool gamers and the final group of one-and-done stars. A great staff’s future picks have extra commerce worth than its present-day picks.
This sort of push-and-pull contaminated talks between Houston and Oklahoma Metropolis on Thursday. (Talks between the Warmth and Thunder had quieted by then, sources say.) The Rockets tried to coax Oklahoma Metropolis into taking Houston’s 2020 first-rounder, sources say. Oklahoma Metropolis refused, and pushed for picks additional out. Houston relented, and the 2 settled on Houston’s 2024 and 2026 picks — each with simply top-four safety.
These protections are mild. Harden will flip 35 in 2024. There’s extra danger right here for Houston than would seem warranted. However that is the summer time of danger — of groups sensing a Warriors-free window, and going all-in.
The Rockets can in all probability speak themselves into this by arguing that shedding Paul would have value them one first-round decide. The opposite decide (plus the swaps) is the price of the expertise hole, now and over the following three seasons. Tilman Fertitta needed a flashy shake-up. He bought one.
That is inarguably nice return for Oklahoma Metropolis. The Thunder have acquired seven future first-round picks mixed in offers sending out Westbrook and Paul George. They’ve acquired so many future first-round picks, will probably be attention-grabbing to see if they will even roster all of them. (They in all probability do not intend to; groups usually accumulate picks like this to package deal not less than a few them in trades.). They’ve acquired so many first-round picks, you nearly overlook additionally they bought Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — a long-armed menace with All-Star potential.
The once-in-a-lifetime occasion of Kawhi Leonard holding the Clippers up in opposition to a ticking clock gave Presti leverage to show George into an instantaneous rebuild. This deal is the coda. It is clichéd to say the teardown is the simple half, and the buildup is the laborious half. That’s principally true. However Presti nailed this teardown to an extent hardly ever seen.
For the Rockets, I am undecided this deal ups their 2020 title probabilities as a lot as they hope — or a lot in any respect — until the chemistry points between Harden and Paul have been intractable. The Rockets have downplayed these points publicly and privately, and continued to within the wake of the Westbrook deal. That’s what groups do. Capela despatched Paul off with a shifting Twitter tribute.
But when these points have been actual to the purpose of dividing a possible title contender, the Rockets needed to do one thing. The burden is on each Westbrook and Harden to show that this commerce was higher for Houston’s 2020 title odds than standing pat would have been.