SEC East: Is it nonetheless Georgia’s world?
Invoice ConnellyESPN
October 29, 2016: That is the final time Georgia misplaced a recreation to an SEC East foe. Kirby Sensible’s Bulldogs erupted in 2017, profitable the convention and reaching the finals of the School Soccer Playoff. And with nobody else rating increased than 28th in S&P+ or 34th in FPI, it was simple to see the Dawgs proudly owning the division for years to return.
That possession certainly continued in 2018, however the neighborhood acquired its act collectively a bit. Florida was borderline prime 10, and Missouri, Kentucky and South Carolina had been borderline prime 30, at worst. The East even went 9-5 in opposition to the West! Sensible is recruiting at an absurd degree, and it would not seem Georgia plans on being something apart from a top-five program anytime quickly. However the landmines elevated final 12 months, and we’re only one upset from a wacky race.
A fast reminder on terminology: S&P+ is the tempo- and opponent-adjusted effectivity measure I created at Soccer Outsiders in 2008.
Groups are listed beneath so as of S&P+ projections. Click on right here for the SEC West preview.
Leap to a workforce:
Georgia | Florida | Missouri | South Carolina
Tennessee | Kentucky | Vanderbilt
2018 document: 11-Three (No. 2 S&P+, No. Three FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 10.1 wins (No. 2)
2019 FPI projection: 9.9 wins (No. Three)
To be a fan of any faculty soccer workforce not named Alabama, Clemson or perhaps Ohio State proper now could be to dwell in a perpetual state of existential disaster. To be a fan of a faculty that considers each Alabama and Clemson rivals, to a point, is much more fraught.
From a 20,000-foot view, the Georgia Bulldogs live a reasonably good life proper now.
• After a first-year reset in succeeding Mark Richt, Kirby Sensible has gone 24-5 in two seasons, with an SEC title, two top-10 ballot finishes, and two top-two recruiting lessons.
• The Dawgs got here inside an additional time interval of the nationwide title in 2017 and inside about three or 4 minutes of a return journey to the School Soccer Playoff in 2018.
• They head into 2019 with a number of blue-chippers in each unit on the sector, All-American candidates all over the place you look, a veteran quarterback (Jake Fromm) — hell, they even have a tremendous kicker (Rodrigo Blankenship).
Make no mistake, although: The existential disaster stays.
In spite of everything, Georgia did not get the job performed in 2017, falling sufferer to Alabama and second-and-26. And with a shot at revenge within the 2018 SEC championship recreation, they gave up 21 unanswered factors and misplaced, 35-28. Then, for good measure, they got here out flat in opposition to Texas within the Sugar Bowl and misplaced that, too.
2 Associated
The late-2018 hiccup created some parallels that function each encouragement and a reminder that Sensible’s journey is not robotically going to finish in a nationwide title.
• First 12 months: Richt Eight-Four, Sensible Eight-5
• Second 12 months: Richt 13-1 with an SEC title and No. Three ballot end, Sensible 13-2 with an SEC title and No. 2 ballot end
• Third 12 months: Richt 11-Three and No. 7 ballot end, Sensible 11-Three and No. 7 ballot end
From 2001-15, Richt produced essentially the most persistently stable outcomes this facet of wherever Saban and City Meyer had been teaching. He received a second convention title in 2005, and after a short downturn (14-12 in 2009-10), he made one other cost to the brink of a nationwide title in 2012. However he got here up a couple of yards in need of Saban’s Tide in 2012 and by no means acquired one other shot at a hoop. He was each an enormous success and a cautionary story.
This can be a fairly merciless sport. You by no means know what number of possibilities you are going to get. Georgia has seen photographs slip by means of its fingers for 2 straight years. Now, with Alabama and Clemson wanting as loaded as ever and division rival Florida charging up from behind, UGA followers must marvel if the second is slipping away from them.
It most likely is not. Once more, the Dawgs are loaded.
On offense, they return Fromm, operating again D’Andre Swift, and most of final 12 months’s offensive line, together with All-American left sort out Andrew Thomas. On protection, six of final 12 months’s seven major linemen are again, as are eight of 9 on the DB depth chart. Even with the lack of first-round cornerback Deandre Baker, the continuity right here is immense.
The main turnover is available in two locations: the receiving corps and the teaching sales space.
Main receivers Riley Ridley and Mecole Hardman have gone to the NFL, and Jeremiah Holloman was booted from the workforce this summer season. Just one returning wideout caught greater than three passes final 12 months (Tyler Simmons, with all of 9 receptions). Sensible has to hope that some mixture of latest transfers and younger blue-chippers can shortly discover a rapport with Fromm.
The Kirby Sensible-Jake Fromm duo has Georgia has the SEC East frontrunner as soon as once more. Streeter Lecka/Getty Photographs
In the meantime, Sensible is taking after his former boss in one other method: He is having to interrupt in two new coordinators. Offensive coordinator Jim Chaney left for Tennessee, and defensive coordinator Mel Tucker is now Colorado’s head coach. In each situations, Sensible promoted from inside, eradicating the “co-” from James Coley’s “offensive co-coordinator” title and bumping fast-rising OLBs coach Dan Lanning to DC.
Each Chaney and Tucker did their jobs effectively however left room for development. Georgia’s purple zone execution on offense was expensive, and as Sensible acknowledged this offseason, the protection was sturdy however not disruptive sufficient.
If requisite development takes place, the sky is the restrict. Per S&P+ projections, Georgia is a projected favourite in each recreation this fall, and solely two video games (vs. Florida, at Auburn) are projected to be inside 14 factors. Florida is on the rise, and in Missouri and South Carolina, the SEC East has two different projected top-20 groups as effectively, but it surely would not matter but — the Dawgs are nonetheless the kings of the East. And for a 3rd straight 12 months, they’re going to have a shot at ruling one thing better than simply their division.
2018 document and rankings: 10-Three (No. 9 S&P+, No. 11 FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: Eight.7 wins (No. 6)
2019 FPI projection: Eight.Three wins (No. Eight)
The Florida soccer program has produced three Heisman-winning quarterbacks: Steve Spurrier in 1966, Danny Wuerffel in 1996, and Tim Tebow in 2007. The Gators have received three nationwide titles (1996, 2006, 2008), averaging 40 factors per recreation in these campaigns. With Spurrier as head coach, they revolutionized the faculty soccer passing offense within the 1990s, and with City Meyer taking on within the mid-2000s, they rode a muscular, terrifying variation of the unfold to 2 nationwide titles and 4 straight years of rating 11th or higher in Off. S&P+.
Loads of sturdy defensive expertise has rolled by means of Gainesville by means of the years, to make sure. However at its finest moments, this has been a program outlined by offense. Splashy, devastating offense.
That has made the 2010s a reasonably jarring decade. The Gators fell from second to 57th in Off. S&P+ in 2010, Meyer’s final 12 months in cost, then averaged a No. 61 rating underneath Will Muschamp and a No. 72 rating underneath Jim McElwain. Their wins had been ugly, and their losses had been uglier.
From 2012-17, Florida scored greater than 45 factors simply 3 times: in opposition to Japanese Michigan and Japanese Kentucky in 2014 and New Mexico State in 2015. However over the ultimate 4 video games of 2018, the Gators averaged 45 factors per recreation.
• They gained 528 yards (6.Four per play) and scored 35 factors in a shootout win over Muschamp’s South Carolina.
• They cruised to 600 yards (7.Zero) and scored 63 in opposition to Idaho.
• They gained 536 yards (6.Eight) and scored 41 factors on Florida State, their most within the rivalry since 2008.
• Towards Don Brown’s top-10 Michigan protection, they gained 427 yards (6.7) and scored 41 factors in a Peach Bowl blowout.
Dan Mullen’s first season changing McElwain as UF coach was a little bit of a curler coaster. In simply his second recreation in cost, the Gators’ 31-year profitable streak over Kentucky ended with a 27-16 loss in Lexington. A few months later, they adopted up a 36-17 rivalry loss to Georgia with a 38-17 blowout loss to Missouri at house. Not excellent.
All of it got here collectively in these final 4 video games, although. Oft-maligned quarterback Feleipe Franks accomplished 65% of his passes and averaged 13.7 yards per completion (and 5.7 yards per non-sack carry) whereas throwing zero interceptions. Splitting time with the since-departed Jordan Scarlett, Lamical Perine averaged Eight.Four yards per carry. The receiver quintet of Van Jefferson, Trevon Grimes, Kadarius Toney, Josh Hammond and Tyrie Cleveland mixed for 13 catches and 180 yards per recreation.
Will the Gators get late-2018 Feleipe Franks for all of 2019? Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports activities
Florida received its final 4 video games, completed 10-Three and rose to ninth in S&P+ and seventh within the AP ballot. The Gators ended up 15th in Off. S&P+, too, simply their finest mark — and their most Florida-like mark — since Tebow was quarterback.
We overreact to small samples generally in faculty soccer. (Truthfully, what selection do now we have? All the season is a small pattern!) But it surely’s not laborious to deal with end-of-2018 Florida as New Florida while you have a look at what the Gators return.
Franks is again for his junior season, as are two environment friendly backs in Perine and backup Dameon Pierce, plus the entire aforementioned wideouts. Todd Grantham’s protection, 17th in Def. S&P+ final 12 months, returns eight starters as effectively.
There’s mainly one big gap on the two-deep. It is a fairly vital one:
After years of underachievement, the Gator line was downright good in 2018, paving the best way for Florida to rank 14th in speeding marginal effectivity, 20th in stuff price and first in passing downs sack price. However now it has to switch 4 starters. Some mixture of veteran reserves and younger blue-chippers has to at the very least replicate final 12 months’s steadiness.
Nonetheless, on paper this tasks as the very best Florida workforce in fairly a while, one that’s balanced and skilled and in a position to beat you many methods. Per S&P+ (through which they’re projected sixth total), the Gators are a double-digit favourite in every of their first 5 video games earlier than issues get tough down the stretch — they’re underdogs in opposition to LSU and Georgia and solely minor favorites over Auburn, South Carolina and Missouri.
If the Florida of late 2018 exhibits again up beginning in Orlando to face Miami, then there’s a good probability the East shouldn’t be solely a two-team race, however a race between two groups really keen on scoring factors.
However once more — small samples, small samples, small samples.
2018 document and rankings: Eight-5 (No. 12 S&P+, No. 14 FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: Eight.1 wins (No. 16)
2019 FPI projection: Eight.1 wins (No. 19)
Group tradition is loads like workforce depth — you realize it may be examined in some unspecified time in the future, however you do not know when, and you do not know how.
Coming into Yr Four of the Barry Odom period, Mizzou’s tradition was formally examined this offseason.
In February, Missouri acquired slapped round by the NCAA for what had been deemed the actions of a rogue tutor years earlier. Among the many punishments had been postseason bans for the soccer, baseball and softball groups. The college has appealed — mainly like formally interesting your grounding to your mother and father — and there has not but been a decision.
With a postseason ban comes a chance for some gamers. Seniors-to-be, who would now be banned from taking part in within the postseason for his or her ultimate season of eligibility, are allowed to switch with out having to sit down out a 12 months.
None did. Regardless of the punishment, Mizzou has misplaced just one switch this offseason (sophomore cornerback Terry Petry), fewest within the SEC. Plus, Clemson quarterback switch Kelly Bryant, who dedicated to Mizzou earlier than the sanctions got here down, might have elected to go elsewhere. He didn’t.
Group tradition grade: A.
That the roster largely caught collectively has turned a probable transitional season into a pretend transition. Quarterback Drew Lock, receiver Emanuel Corridor and defensive sort out Terry Beckner Jr. had been in some ways the faces of final 12 months’s workforce, and all are gone. However Bryant offers the Tigers a returning starter of kinds at QB, returning sort out Jordan Elliott graded out higher than Beckner per Professional Soccer Focus, and Corridor was injured sufficient final 12 months that backup Jalen Knox acquired much more reps than anticipated.
Dynamic tight finish Albert Okwuegbunam will probably be a vital weapon for the Tigers. Ed Zurga/Getty Photographs
Missouri completed a wholesome 12th in S&P+ final season. Which may appear excessive for an Eight-5 workforce, however all 5 losses got here to S&P+ top-25 groups, two had been dramatically unlikely from a statistical standpoint, and three had been away from Columbia. Plus, the losses had been offset considerably by a blowout win over S&P+ No. 9 Florida in Gainesville.
Mizzou is projected 16th this coming fall. The Tigers draw Ole Miss and Arkansas from the SEC West and are projected favorites in 10 video games.
Working again Larry Rountree III and an skilled offensive line ought to give the Tigers a pleasant floor recreation to lean on, particularly with Bryant’s personal run prowess. The receiving corps will nonetheless characteristic tight finish Albert Okwuegbunam, longtime slot man Johnathon Johnson and Knox, plus grad switch Jonathan Nance, Arkansas’ main receiver in 2017.
On protection, the Tigers boast senior Cale Garrett at linebacker (first-team All-SEC, per PFF) and their most skilled secondary in fairly a while. Their move rush has lacked for a few seasons (they had been 108th in sack price final 12 months), and that’s not assured to enhance regardless of the addition of former LSU finish Sci Martin and former Texas sort out Chris Daniels. However that is the one true blind spot on the two-deep.
Odom has proved himself fairly a bit when it comes to each expertise identification and tradition constructing. The final step in his personal development as a head coach, although, will come when he higher figures out easy methods to maneuver by means of shut video games.
Above, I famous that two of Mizzou’s losses had been statistically unlikely. Here is what I meant: One quantity I observe is known as postgame win expectancy — it takes the important thing predictive stats from a given recreation, tosses them into the air and says, “With these stats, you could possibly have anticipated to win this recreation X% of the time.”
Within the Tigers’ 37-35 loss to South Carolina, Mizzou’s postgame win expectancy was 97%, making it one of many least doubtless losses of the season. Of their Liberty Bowl loss to Oklahoma State, it was 73%. Due to that, S&P+ noticed Mizzou as extra like a 9-Four workforce.
Within the quick time period, this can be a signal of randomness and unhealthy luck. Over an extended time period, nevertheless, sure coaches — the Invoice Snyders and Ken Niumatalolos of the world — have proven they will persistently overachieve these postgame win possibilities. And in the event that they’re overachieving, somebody must be underachieving.
In three seasons, Odom has underachieved by greater than a win per 12 months, worse than anybody in FBS moreover Miami (Ohio)’s Chuck Martin. An indication of unfortunate randomness? Possibly. However Odom’s in-game teaching remains to be a reasonably clear work in progress. And if the Tigers merely obtain on this regard, they may very well be in for one more good 12 months, postseason or no postseason.
2018 document and rankings: 7-6 (No. 20 S&P+, No. 35 FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 5.9 wins (No. 18)
2019 FPI projection: 6.1 wins (No. 18)
In line with each my S&P+ estimates and Sports activities Reference’s SRS scores, the very best South Carolina workforce of all time took the sector in 1987. Joe Morrison’s squad boasted a Three,000-yard passer in Todd Ellis, an all-world receiver by the identify of Sterling Sharpe and a protection with two All-People — defensive again Brad Edwards and defensive sort out Roy Hart — and two extra soon-to-be draftees within the secondary. The Gamecocks averaged 28.Four factors per recreation (18th in what we now name FBS), and a protection they known as Black Loss of life allowed simply 11.Eight (fourth).
The most effective South Carolina workforce ever went simply Eight-Four. The Gamecocks’ schedule featured journeys to Georgia (which completed the 12 months ranked 13th), Nebraska (sixth) and nationwide champion Miami, plus a go to from Clemson (12th) and a Gator Bowl matchup with LSU (fifth).
Outdoors of those 5 video games, they went 7-Zero and outscored opponents by a median of 41-7. They beat Clemson by two touchdowns, too. They scared the hell out of Miami however fell by 4 factors after a late turnover on downs, blew a sequence of scoring possibilities in a seven-point loss to Georgia, and led by eight in Lincoln earlier than a late Nebraska cost. This was an clearly good workforce, and with a neater schedule, they might have made a run at 10 wins and a top-10 end.
The 2019 South Carolina workforce would possibly want it had the 1987 schedule.
Will Muschamp’s fourth SC squad will face every of the projected prime three groups in S&P+ (Alabama Sept. 14, at Georgia Oct. 12, and Clemson Nov. 30), plus 4 others projected 21st or increased. A majority of SC’s schedule will come in opposition to top-25 caliber groups, and that is earlier than we get to house video games in opposition to Appalachian State and Kentucky and a neutral-field recreation in opposition to a thriller of a North Carolina workforce.
Shi Smith is a part of a veteran skill-position group that returns for the Gamecocks. Chuck Burton/AP Picture
South Carolina is projected 18th, and there is at the very least an opportunity that S&P+ is underestimating the Gamecocks because of the “mainly each single defender acquired damage final 12 months” issue. They’ve huge expertise at quarterback (barring damage, Jake Bentley will end his profession as SC’s all-time main passer), within the ability corps (Rico Dowdle and Mon Denson mixed for 1,086 speeding yards final 12 months, and Bryan Edwards and Shi Smith had 100 catches for 1,519) and within the defensive entrance seven (11 of 13 gamers with at the very least three tackles for loss are again).
In areas through which the confirmed expertise is minimal (offensive line, secondary), tons of gamers noticed the sector and acquired some degree of expertise. Amount makes high quality a bit extra doubtless.
This may very well be a rock-solid workforce. It’s going to must be to go even 6-6 or 7-5.
So this is the key query dealing with Muschamp & Co. this fall: How on the planet do you outline success? Muschamp, after all, will discuss desirous to compete and win each recreation and whatnot, and that is high-quality — coaches say unrealistic issues on a regular basis. But it surely’s laborious for anybody to speak themselves into 7-5 being a really profitable 12 months, even when it will be. And it is even tougher when your in-state rival is profitable nationwide titles.
Muschamp’s performed a stable job in Columbia. He inherited a Three-9 mess from Steve Spurrier, and although the workforce improved to 6-7 in his first 12 months, it was primarily due to slender wins over unhealthy groups. However the Gamecocks jumped to 41st in S&P+ in 2017 because of a resurgent protection, then improved to 20th final fall due to a drastically improved offense.
Muschamp offenses have been notoriously stultified by means of the years, however to his credit score, he requested offensive coordinator Bryan McClendon to unfold issues out and improve the tempo final 12 months, and it labored. SC ranked 11th in adjusted tempo* and 34th within the proportion of solo tackles created** and improved total.
The arrows have not all been pointed in the identical route simply but, however the greatest driver of SC’s document has been the schedule. It has gotten tougher annually Muschamp has been in Columbia, and that may nearly actually proceed. However on the brilliant facet, it won’t be attainable to get any tougher than this 12 months’s slate. All downhill from right here!
* Adjusted tempo appears at your common seconds per play and compares it to what’s anticipated primarily based in your run-pass ratio. South Carolina operated 2.Eight seconds per play quicker than expectations.
** Taking a look at your proportion of solo tackles created tells us loads about how a lot of the time your ball carriers are spending in open areas. Some context: Arizona and Missouri created essentially the most solo tackles final 12 months, whereas LSU and Military created the fewest. That ought to let you know one thing.
2018 document and rankings: 5-7 (No. 48 in S&P+, No. 65 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 6.5 wins (No. 21)
2019 FPI projection: 7.6 wins (No. 15)
Over the previous two seasons, Tennessee is 2-14 in SEC play, worst within the SEC East. Kentucky and South Carolina are each 9-7 in that span, and Missouri is Eight-Eight. Even Vanderbilt, at Four-12, has doubled the Volunteers’ wins.
If you happen to’re a Wildcats, Gamecocks, Tigers or Commodores fan, then, you most likely reacted with a grumble and a wholesome roll of the eyes while you noticed this 12 months’s FPI or S&P+ projections. Regardless of such a drastic latest downturn, Tennessee is projected 15th within the former and 21st within the latter. Infuriating, proper? One other signal of how recruiting rankings are overrated, or how media shops prop up blue bloods, yeah?
These projections would possibly find yourself confirmed drastically unsuitable. It would not be the primary time. However the logic behind the Vols’ projected surge is not precisely … illogical.
First, recruiting rankings are certainly predictive. Beginning with a deeper base is healthier than beginning with much less, even when groups generally do not find yourself growing or deploying it correctly. Jeremy Pruitt’s first full-year recruiting class at UT ranked 11th total. Granted, UT nearly all the time grades out fairly effectively on this regard, however regardless of annual outliers, recruiting rankings are likely to make for extra correct projections.
Pruitt and the Vols have one thing a lot larger and extra vital going for them in 2019, nevertheless: continuity.
They return their main passer (Jarrett Guarantano), their prime three operating backs (all of whom had been freshmen or sophomores final 12 months), their prime 5 wideouts, their beginning tight finish, seven of the eight offensive linemen who began a recreation final 12 months, 4 of their prime six linebackers and 6 of their prime eight defensive backs. There’s fairly a little bit of turnover on the defensive position, however on the brilliant facet, the defensive position wasn’t superb. There’s not a ton of room for a drop-off.
Actually, the first turnover has come on workers. Pruitt initially employed Tyson Helton as his offensive coordinator and Kevin Sherrer and Chris Rumph as his defensive co-coordinators. However Helton is now WKU’s head coach, and Pruitt introduced in Jim Chaney, most just lately of Georgia, to switch him. Pruitt additionally employed former USC coordinator Tee Martin as assistant head coach and passing recreation coordinator. On protection, Pruitt bumped Sherrer to particular groups coordinator and employed former Bama DBs coach Derrick Ansley as DC.
Jarrett Guarantano may very well be a breakout star in 2019. AP Picture/Wade Payne
There’s yet one more think about UT’s favor: the second-year impact. If a coach goes to supervise a significant surge in his program, it is most likely taking place in both his second or third season. Pruitt’s division rivals, and a sure former boss, present anecdotal proof of that.
Kirby Sensible’s second UGA workforce went from 42nd in S&P+ to fourth. South Carolina improved from 85th to 41st in Will Muschamp’s second 12 months. Missouri went from 70th to 28th in Barry Odom’s second season. Kentucky improved from 74th to 51st in Yr 2 underneath Mark Stoops. Former Pruitt boss Nick Saban oversaw a leap from 31st to 10th at Alabama in 2008.
Yr 2 is when your tradition has an opportunity to really take impact. Your gamers know what is anticipated of them, there are extra of your individual recruits within the pipeline, and in the event you made any shaky hires out of the gates, you have had an opportunity to rectify them. When you have success in you, that is once we most likely start to see it.
We after all cannot assure Pruitt has success in him. His pre-UT résumé was clearly glorious — eight years with Saban (two as defensive coordinator, each with defenses that ranked No. 1 in Def. S&P+), one nationwide title season as Jimbo Fisher’s DC at Florida State, and many others. However he has proved to be irascible at instances, and hey, not almost each former Saban assistant works out as a head coach.
The peripherals listed below are encouraging on paper, anyway. Ansley’s first UT protection will boast a robust move rush constructed round senior linebacker Darrell Taylor (11 tackles for loss, eight sacks), and a secondary that was harried and continuously shuffled on account of damage and youth has had an opportunity to settle a bit. The Vols will certainly want newcomers to spruce issues up a bit up entrance, however the base is extra secure than it was final 12 months.
On offense, the receiver trio of Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, and Josh Palmer (mixed: 90 catches, 1,514 yards, and a 52% success price) has huge potential when wholesome. Progress completely will depend on the Chaney-Guarantano marriage, and Chaney’s acquired an excellent observe document in that regard.
2018 document and rankings: 10-Three (No. 25 in S&P+, No. 26 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 6.1 wins (No. 37)
2019 FPI projection: 6.Four wins (No. 40)
From the second Kentucky employed former Florida State defensive coordinator Mark Stoops as its head coach in December 2012, it was fairly apparent the emphasis can be on the long run. And if that wasn’t clear instantly, it grew to become clear when the varsity gave Stoops a contract extension after one season and simply two wins.
This was a interval of reinvestment. UK made $120 million price of renovations to an outdated Commonwealth Stadium (now Kroger Area), and Stoops went to work within the recruiting division. He signed ESPN’s No. 20 class within the nation in 2014, then settled into the Nos. 30-36 vary thereafter.
UK’s depth slowly improved over time, however the outcomes actually did not. Regardless of good second-year enchancment and a fourth-year bowl breakthrough (the Wildcats went 7-6 in each 2016 and 2017), they averaged solely a No. 67 S&P+ rating and 6 wins a 12 months from 2014-17. The offense was slowly bettering, however the protection wasn’t. It was a ghastly 80th in Def. S&P+ in 2017.
To that time, Stoops had struggled to develop any semblance of consistency. His Wildcats had loved three spurts of 5 wins in six video games, plus a four-in-five run. That they had additionally suffered a six-game dropping streak and runs of eight losses in 9 video games and 5 in seven. Up, down, up, down, up, down. It was simple to imagine that was merely what Kentucky was going to be.
Then 2018 occurred.
Kentucky started the 12 months 5-Zero, ending a 31-year dropping streak in opposition to Florida, scoring the final 28 factors in a three-score win over Mississippi State and happening a 21-Zero run to beat South Carolina. After an additional time loss at Texas A&M, the Wildcats outlasted Vanderbilt in a defensive slog and outscored Missouri 12-Zero within the fourth quarter to win 15-14.
Mark Stoops wants to switch most of his prime performers from final 12 months’s 10-win squad. AP Picture/Bryan Woolston
The offense vanished for some time — the Wildcats did not rating greater than 17 factors in a recreation from Oct. 6 to Nov. 10 — however the wins largely continued, because of Stoops’ first good protection, one of the vital senior-heavy in faculty soccer. Outdoors linebacker Josh Allen (21.5 TFLs, 17 sacks, 24 run stuffs, 4 move breakups, 5 compelled fumbles) went from an excellent piece to perhaps the very best defensive participant in faculty soccer, and a well-seasoned secondary capitalized on almost each mistake opposing QBs made. UK leaped to 15th in Def. S&P+ and completed 10-Three.
This 12 months represents perhaps the most important check for a program builder: upkeep. It is laborious sufficient for coaches to engineer one breakthrough — doing it after which conserving your program at its new peak may be an excessive amount of generally.
Stoops has to switch almost each participant you could possibly identify from final 12 months’s squad: Allen, operating again Benny Snell Jr., All-American offensive guard Bunchy Stallings, safeties Mike Edwards and Darius West, corners Derrick Baity Jr. and Lonnie Johnson Jr., and many others. That is sufficient for the Wildcats to drop to 11th within the SEC, and sixth within the East, in each FPI and S&P+ projections.
Nonetheless, there’s upside. Quarterback Terry Wilson, a low-risk passer and robust runner, is again for his junior season, and he’ll get competitors from Troy switch Sawyer Smith. Plus, though 5 of final 12 months’s prime six targets are gone — continuity within the receiving corps is a robust predictor of enchancment and regression, and UK has little or no of it — slot receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. is without doubt one of the finest possession males within the nation. (He additionally turned the Missouri recreation round with a punt return rating.)
On protection, Allen and weakside linebacker Jordan Jones are gone, however all people else within the entrance seven returns, together with center linebacker Kash Daniel and man-mountain Calvin Taylor Jr. (6-foot-9, 310 kilos). Stoops’ regular recruiting means he has a degree of depth he can name on, as effectively; that hasn’t all the time been the case.
He is acquired measurement, too. The 2-deep on the offensive line will doubtless characteristic Logan Stenberg (6-foot-6, 322), Landon Younger (6-7, 324), Darian Kinnard (6-5, 324), Mason Wolfe (6-6, 323), Austin Dotson (6-6, 331) and redshirt freshman Nick Lewis (6-9, 367). The defensive position options not solely Taylor, but in addition Phil Hoskins (6-5, 306) and Quinton Bohanna (6-Four, 361). That is massive even by SEC requirements. You are going to really feel it while you play Kentucky.
Nonetheless, in opposition to a schedule that options seven projected S&P+ top-25 opponents, the first purpose is conserving a three-year bowl streak alive. An eight-game house slate and pillow-soft nonconference schedule (Toledo, EMU, UT Martin, Louisville) ought to enable the Wildcats to attain that.
2018 document and rankings: 6-7 (No. 39 in S&P+, No. 53 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: Four.9 wins (No. 53)
2019 FPI projection: 5.Three wins (No. 50)
One among my favourite moments of the 2018 faculty soccer season got here on Oct. 13 in Nashville when, after a focusing on name on a Florida participant, Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason marched throughout the sector and, it appeared on the time, challenged the complete Florida bench to a struggle.
After a focusing on name, issues acquired chippy within the Florida/Vanderbilt recreation 👀 pic.twitter.com/UJBna9MKSh
— ESPN (@espn) October 13, 2018
Mason and UF head coach Dan Mullen would hug it out after the sport, however the symbolism within the second was laborious to keep away from: Mason, a former faculty cornerback and one of many smaller (in stature) soccer coaches you may see, standing up for his personal dramatically undersized — bodily and traditionally — soccer program. The second was actually not misplaced on his gamers, a few of whom charged throughout the sector to have his again.
In fact, Vanderbilt gave up a 34-6 run to finish that recreation and misplaced by 10. The Commodores performed seven power-conference bowl groups in 2018 and went Zero-7 in opposition to them. Toughness and good intentions do not make a troublesome job a lot more easy.
By way of 5 years, Mason’s win proportion at Vandy is Zero.387. That is not superb on the floor, but it surely’s third-best of any Vandy coach of the previous 40 years, topped solely by James Franklin (Zero.615) and Gerry DiNardo (Zero.432). After going 7-17 in his first two years, Mason has eked out bowl bids in two of the final three. The Commodores have overwhelmed in-state rival Tennessee 3 times in a row and have, per S&P+, improved for 4 consecutive years.
Nonetheless, with perhaps the varsity’s finest offense for the reason that 1970s, Vanderbilt went 6-7. The Dores outscored opponents by 24 factors however went simply 2-Four in one-possession finishes. And now they’ve to switch longtime beginning quarterback Kyle Shurmur and 7 defensive starters.
Is that this a starting-over level, then? Possibly not. For one factor, Mason nonetheless has Ke’Shawn Vaughn. The Illinois switch utterly modified Vandy’s offense when he stepped in because the characteristic again down the stretch.
By way of eight video games, Vaughn had 72 carries (9 per recreation) for 495 yards and 5 touchdowns, and the Commodores had been averaging 23.1 factors per recreation. Over the past 5 video games, Vaughn carried 85 instances (17 per recreation) for 749 yards and 7 scores, and Vandy averaged 37 factors per recreation.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn offers Derek Mason and the Commodores a home-run menace within the backfield. Frederick Breedon/Getty Photographs
Vaughn rushed for 182 yards in 15 carries in a near-upset at Missouri, and he wanted solely 13 carries to realize 243 yards in opposition to Baylor in an exhilarating Texas Bowl. That “faculty’s finest offense for the reason that 1970s” factor did not take form till he began seeing the sector extra. He’s a stick of dynamite, simply essentially the most harmful offensive participant Vanderbilt has had since Jordan Matthews or Earl Bennett.
With Vaughn, big-play tight finish Jared Pinkney, possession man Kalija Lipscomb, and younger wideouts like C.J. Bolar, Cam Johnson and Amir Abdur-Rahman, Vandy has a ability corps that would far exceed its recruiting rankings. We’ll see if the Commodores have a quarterback.
Mason leaned into the underdog theme with some small-school transfers. Former Ball State quarterback Riley Neal would possibly begin for the Dores this fall, and Mason added gamers from Harvard (receiver Justice Shelton-Mosley), Marist (sort out Eddie Zinn-Turner), and South Alabama (guard Rowan Godwin), plus one other Illinois switch (nook Cam Watkins) for good measure. If any of them present a fraction of Vaughn’s upside, that is a internet win.
If solely a kind of transfers had been to work out, although, make it the 6-foot-1, 300-pound Zinn-Turner. The Commodores’ defensive entrance gave up at the very least Four yards on 55% of non-sack carries final 12 months (124th in FBS) and stuffed opponents at or behind the road simply 16% of the time (107th). The entrance seven was undersized, and it confirmed. Their purple zone protection was stable, however opponents created purple zone alternatives with ease.
Morale may very well be key this fall. Within the Commodores’ first three video games of the season, they host Georgia and LSU, sandwiching a visit to Purdue in between. Per S&P+, they’re a projected underdog in 9 video games. Granted, Vaughn will get loads of alternatives to do massive issues in opposition to big-time opponents, however reaching a 3rd bowl in 4 years will probably be tough, particularly if the run entrance remains to be outmanned.