SEC West: Can anybody problem Alabama this time round?
Invoice ConnellyESPN
With LSU taking a step ahead in Ed Orgeron’s second season, Texas A&M taking part in at a top-15 stage in Jimbo Fisher’s first season and Mississippi State taking part in perhaps the most effective protection within the nation in Joe Moorhead’s debut, the SEC West loved its finest depth in years final fall. Higher but, the computer systems solely mission one crew to regress this fall (MSU, and never by a lot) whereas six both keep the identical or enhance.
It is a mighty division in a mighty convention. Going Eight-Four shall be an accomplishment. However can anybody problem Alabama this time round? Indicators are hazy at finest. LSU might be top-five caliber if final 12 months’s late-season offensive breakthrough wasn’t a mirage, and hey, Auburn’s at all times able to going full-on Loopy Auburn. However even in a loaded West, one crew continues to face out.
A fast reminder on terminology: S&P+ is the tempo- and opponent-adjusted effectivity measure I created at Soccer Outsiders in 2008.
Groups are listed under so as of S&P+ projections. Click on right here for the SEC East preview.
Soar to a crew:
Alabama | LSU | Auburn | Mississippi State
Texas A&M | Ole Miss | Arkansas
2018 document and rankings: 14-1 (No. 1 S&P+, No. 2 FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 10.7 wins (No. 1)
2019 FPI projection: 11.Zero wins (No. 2)
At an existential stage, faculty soccer contradicts itself. On one hand, it’s an oligarchy. The groups which have at all times gained are the groups profitable essentially the most proper now. The Massive Ten remains to be run by Ohio State, the Massive Eight/12 by Oklahoma, the SEC by Alabama, and so forth., simply because it was within the 1970s. Shifts within the ruling class are uncommon.
On the similar time, it is a sport that rewards success by making your job lots tougher. When you’re a mid-major program or a second-tier program inside an influence convention, your reward for profitable is commonly shedding your head coach to a first-tier college. And in case you’re a coach on an enormous run of success, your reward is shedding your key assistants to greater jobs and having to exchange them. And ultimately you make iffy decisions. Ultimately Bobby Bowden employed Jeff Bowden at Florida State. Ultimately Mark Richt employed Brian Schottenheimer at Georgia. Ultimately Bob Stoops employed Mike Stoops (the second time) at Oklahoma.
Alabama head coach Nick Saban has, of late, gone via coordinators like Spinal Faucet drummers.
• 2015: offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, defensive coordinator Kirby Good
• 2016: offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin (and, for one recreation, Steve Sarkisian), defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt
• 2017: offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt
• 2018: offensive coordinator Mike Locksley, defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi
• 2019: offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, defensive coordinator Pete Golding
That is insane. That is eight completely different coordinators in 5 seasons.
When (if?) the top comes for Saban’s unbelievable run of dominance at Alabama, it can look lots like what we have seen the previous couple of years. His Crimson Tide gained the 2017 nationwide title, however they wanted a determined comeback from a backup quarterback and an additional time heave to fend off a rising convention rival (Georgia) led by a former Saban protege (Kirby Good) who rotated and took Saban’s recruiting title a month later.
In 2018, with two new coordinators (who had been every about to depart Tuscaloosa), the Tide acquired blown out within the nationwide title recreation by a crew having fun with way more coaching-staff continuity (Clemson). Clemson headed into the sport with a few clear statistical and matchup benefits — particularly, its receiving corps in opposition to Alabama’s secondary and its unbelievable red-zone protection in opposition to Alabama’s wholly common red-zone offense — and completely destroyed the Tide with them. Alabama had loads of benefits as properly however could not flip them into factors.
You do not normally go straight from nice to mediocre — you normally flash just a few moments of apparent vulnerability earlier than succumbing. And if we squint excellent, these moments have definitely appeared.
Nick Saban and Tua Tagovailoa hope to guide Alabama to a different nationwide championship. AP Picture/David Goldman
Regardless of these moments, although, you can make a really robust case that the previous 4 seasons have been the most effective of Saban’s profession. His Tide have misplaced simply 4 video games in 4 years (solely two within the common season), with 4 consecutive top-two finishes and title-game appearances. For all of his accomplishments, he hadn’t but performed that. And after shedding his recruiting crown to Good within the 2018 class, he took it proper again in 2019.
The principles of nature would possibly or may not apply to Saban, one thing he has downright flaunted that this offseason, changing not solely each coordinators and 7 full-time assistants, but in addition a rattling hip. He is simply displaying off at this level.
Regardless of all of the change, there’s fairly robust continuity for Alabama this season the place it would matter essentially the most: on the sphere. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for Three,966 yards and 43 touchdowns whereas in control of essentially the most profitable Bama offense since World Conflict II, and he will get final season’s high 4 wideouts (Biletnikoff winner Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle) again.
The protection, in the meantime, returns its two most disruptive linebackers (Dylan Moses and Anfernee Jennings), and the secondary has infinitely extra continuity than it did this time final 12 months, when it was changing its high six tacklers. It has stars to exchange, to make certain — deal with Quinnen Williams, security Deionte Thompson, pass-rusher Christian Miller, and so forth. — however that is at all times the case. The general depth of expertise remains to be stronger than final 12 months.
Alabama goes to be superior in 2019. In fact it is going to be. The Crimson Tide are projected second in FPI and first in S&P+ and are a projected double-digit favourite in each regular-season recreation.
Due to life within the SEC West, plus a crossover recreation in opposition to a possible top-20 South Carolina, the Tide will face loads of apparent checks regardless of a nonconference slate far softer than regular. However they’re checks Alabama normally passes. We in all probability will not know whether or not Saban’s current employees turnover (and the addition of bionic physique components) has paid off till December and past.
2018 document and rankings: 10-Three (No. 5 S&P+, No. 17 FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: Eight.9 wins (No. Four)
2019 FPI projection: 9.5 wins (No. Four)
Ed Orgeron is one in every of faculty soccer’s largest personalities, and for a lot of his life he has performed the whole lot huge. He has coached huge, performed huge, lived huge — and, sure, he has dreamed huge.
On Saturday, this self-described Cajun brawler realized one in every of his most cherished childhood goals when LSU launched him as its full-time head soccer coach.
As someone who grew up on LSU soccer within the small city of Larose, Louisiana, and helped lead South Lafourche Excessive College to a state championship in 1977, Orgeron thought-about the “Tigahs” — as he calls them in his unmistakable baritone voice — soccer royalty.
— ESPN’s Chris Low, November 2016
Ed Orgeron took on his dream job at a reasonably awkward time. His predecessor and former boss Les Miles had established a stage of constant success that this resource-heavy program had not often loved, however Miles’ predecessor was (and nonetheless is) succeeding much more with a division rival.
Miles gained the nationwide title in 2007 (this system’s third ever) and reached the title recreation once more in 2011. He gained two SEC titles, and in 11 full seasons, he completed within the AP high 10 5 occasions and completed ranked one other 4 occasions. However the specter of Nick Saban loomed always.
Miles beat Saban’s Alabama in 2010 and within the 2011 common season, however starting with Bama’s 2011 BCS Championship Sport win, the Tigers by no means acquired again over the hump. They by no means completed within the high 10 once more, both. LSU practically made a change with Miles going 9-Three in 2015, then went forward and pulled the set off when Miles began 2016 at 2-2.
Orgeron confronted a two-step process in entrance of him: First, he had to determine tips on how to get LSU again to its Miles-level peak. Then he had to determine tips on how to catch as much as Saban as properly.
The latter process has been achieved, amongst energetic coaches, by solely Clemson’s Dabo Swinney. Georgia’s Kirby Good has come fairly shut. However on the very least, Orgeron crossed the primary merchandise off the to-do listing final fall.
Orgeron’s second full season noticed the Tigers win double-digit video games for the primary time since 2013 and end within the AP high 10 for the primary time since 2011. LSU was as dominant as ever defensively — Dave Aranda has but to subject a protection that ranks worse than eighth in defensive S&P+ at LSU — and late within the season, an offense piloted by Ohio State QB switch Joe Burrow discovered life.
Grant Delpit is the most recent famous person and future first-round choose in LSU’s defensive backfield. John Korduner/Icon Sportswire
It took some funkiness (and many additional time intervals) for the Tigers to lose at Texas A&M and never end the season on a four-game win streak. And due to a mountain of returning manufacturing (plus the No. Three recruiting class within the nation), Orgeron’s squad is projected fourth in FPI and fourth in S&P+.
The passing recreation returns virtually completely intact — Burrow’s again, as are six of final season’s high seven targets — and the offensive line boasts eight gamers who’ve mixed for 78 profession begins. The run recreation was far much less efficient final season than we’re used to seeing, and that should change, however junior Clyde Edwards-Helaire was environment friendly at occasions for coordinator Steve Ensminger, and incoming blue-chippers John Emery and Tyrion Davis-Worth might shortly carve out niches.
Dropping nook Grasping Williams and linebacker Devin White — each first-round NFL draft picks — hurts, however Aranda’s protection has eight starters again and a stage of depth most coordinators dream of.
Sophomores Ok’Lavon Chaisson and Micah Baskerville might get pleasure from breakthroughs at linebacker in the event that they keep wholesome, and nook Kristian Fulton was wonderful when wholesome, too. The road returns 4 of 5 key rotation members and will get an opportunity to interrupt in two younger and large tackles in sophomore Tyler Shelvin (6-foot-Three, 362 kilos) and freshman Siaki Ika (6-Four, 347).
Orgeron proved final season he was worthy of the rent, and he signed a wonderful recruiting class final fall. His depth chart has beautiful class stability — to raised keep away from sudden drop-offs sooner or later — and per S&P+, his Tigers are projected favorites in 11 of 12 video games this fall. However they’re nonetheless a 12-point underdog at Alabama. The Tigers have not even stayed inside single digits of Bama since 2014, and so they acquired outgained by 380 yards in final season’s disastrous 29-Zero loss.
If Orgeron retains profitable double-digit video games and main bowls however continues to fall quick in opposition to Saban, will that be sufficient for LSU, its directors and its followers?
2018 document and rankings: Eight-5 (No. 7 S&P+, No. 12 FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 7.Eight wins (No. Eight)
2019 FPI projection: 7.7 wins (No. 9)
In six seasons as Auburn’s head coach, Gus Malzahn has crushed seven groups that had been ranked within the high 10 on the time. A part of being a profitable coach is stockpiling moments, and Malzahn’s had greater than his fair proportion.
In fact, if you play the schedule Auburn tends to play, you’ve got loads of alternatives at these moments. You in all probability undergo loads of losses, too.
You can make the case that Auburn’s personal private convention is the nation’s hardest. Not solely do the Tigers play within the SEC West, however in addition they draw Georgia every year in interdivision play. They’ve additionally performed a top-10 crew in nonconference play for 3 straight years, and relying on the place Oregon leads to the preseason polls (probably within the No. Eight-11 vary), that would quickly turn into 4 straight years.
In all, Malzahn’s crew has performed 20 top-10 groups, practically 3½ per 12 months. (Alabama has performed solely 21 such video games in that span, and that is with 9 CFP video games blended in.) Auburn has performed 15 extra groups ranked between 11th and 25th, too (it is 9-6). In 2017, his Tigers beat No. 2 Georgia by 23 and No. 1 Alabama by 12. Their reward: having to play Georgia once more for the SEC crown.
If FBS had an FCS-style 24-team playoff or one thing, we’d say these schedules make Auburn battle-tested and prepared. As an alternative, these schedules principally eradicate the Tigers from playoff competition.
Nothing will change on this regard in 2019. Auburn is scheduled to play two projected top-20 groups (per S&P+), each away from residence, amongst its first 4 video games, then play 5 top-10 groups from there. For good measure, the Tigers additionally by some means go over a month and not using a residence recreation in the course of the season. They’re projected eighth total, and their almost certainly document is Eight-Four, a document that may function not less than three big-time wins.
Three big-time wins with a freshman quarterback, by the best way.
With Jarrett Stidham going professional and final season’s backup, Malik Willis, asserting his switch in Could, Malzahn will probably be beginning both true freshman Bo Nix or one in every of two redshirt freshmen — Joey Gatewood and Wire Sandberg — when the Tigers meet Oregon in Arlington, Texas, in Week 1.
Granted, mentioned QB can have a reasonably good supporting forged. Backs JaTarvious Whitlow and Shaun Shivers had been each ultra-efficient as freshmen final season, and veterans Kam Martin and Malik Miller are each nonetheless round as properly. Plus, after returning virtually no expertise final season, the offensive line is stocked and steady — these answerable for 64 of final season’s 65 begins are again, together with 5 seniors.
There’s some turnover to fret about at receiver with the lack of leaders Ryan Davis and Darius Slayton. However whereas an absence of passing recreation continuity will be damning for an offense, Lord is aware of there’s expertise in a batch that features sophomores Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz, 2018 injured gamers Will Hastings and Eli Range, and transfers Zach Farrar (Youngstown State) and H-back Jay Jay Wilson (Arizona State).
Derrick Brown returns to anchor a fearsome defensive entrance for the Tigers. Wealthy von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
Defensively, issues seem as favorable as ever. Auburn has ranked sixth or higher in defensive S&P+ in back-to-back seasons underneath coordinator Kevin Steele, and the Tigers boast a seasoned defensive entrance led by deal with Derrick Brown and ends Marlon Davidson and Nick Coe, plus a veteran secondary led by safeties Daniel Thomas and Jeremiah Dinson and corners Noah Igbinoghene (who held his personal regardless of altering from offense to protection) and Javaris Davis. Younger safeties Jamien Sherwood and Smoke Monday have main disruptive potential, too.
Nonetheless, Alabama returns Tua Tagovailoa, Georgia returns Jake Fromm, LSU returns Joe Burrow, Texas A&M returns Kellen Mond, Oregon returns Justin Herbert, and Auburn is beginning a freshman. That is scary. Positive, Malzahn’s two finest seasons (2013 and 2017) got here with first-year starters. However that does not change the truth that Auburn’s ranging from behind in crucial place within the sport.
Malzahn has performed a extremely good job on the Plains. Throughout one of the dominant occasions in rival Alabama’s historical past, he has two SEC West titles, two Iron Bowl victories, two top-10 finishes and an SEC title. That is the identical variety of top-10 finishes and SEC titles as Tommy Tuberville managed in a decade. Hell, it is the identical variety of convention titles as Shug Jordan gained, and Auburn’s stadium is half-named after him! However even with a top-10 caliber crew, this stands to be a season as emotionally fraught as every other he is confronted there.
2018 document and rankings: Eight-5 (No. Eight S&P+, No. 9 FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: Eight.Four wins (No. 10)
2019 FPI projection: 7.7 wins (No. 16)
Over the previous 70 years, since a dominant run within the 1940s, Mississippi State has gained eight or extra video games in a season simply 15 occasions. For a program primarily based in a small city, with much less income and a smaller alumni base than the blue bloods in its personal division, going Eight-5 or so will at all times be an accomplishment of kinds.
The 2018 season, Joe Moorhead’s first as MSU head coach, was no completely different. To get to eight wins, the Bulldogs beat each Auburn (No. Eight within the AP ballot on the time) and Texas A&M (No. 16 on the time) by two touchdowns every, walloped division rivals Arkansas and Ole Miss by a mixed 78 factors, and beat Kansas State by three touchdowns in nonconference play.
Moorhead inherited from predecessor Dan Mullen (now at Florida) the most effective defensive position within the nation outdoors of Clemson’s, plus the elements of a wonderful run recreation. He used them each to nice impact. MSU ended up first in defensive S&P+, leveraging you into passing downs after which teeing off, and Bulldogs ball carriers gained not less than 4 yards on 59 % of their non-sack carries, second-best within the nation.
When this crew was good, it was nice. The excessive factors revealed a stage of upside few might match, and MSU completed the season eighth in S&P+ and ninth in FPI. (Whereas the Bulldogs have to exchange quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and a few dominant defensive linemen, they return just about everyone else. They’re projected to slide solely to 10th in S&P+ and 16th in FPI.)
These nice moments, nonetheless, simply made the mediocre moments extra irritating.
Earlier than the win over Auburn, the Bulldogs scored a mixed 13 factors in losses to Kentucky and Florida. Earlier than beating A&M, they needed to slog via a 19-Three loss to LSU. Earlier than crushing Arkansas and Ole Miss, they had been shut out by Alabama. And with an opportunity to match 2017’s nine-win whole, they slipped up, blowing sufficient alternatives to lose to Iowa by 5 within the Outback Bowl regardless of permitting solely 199 yards.
When you might decelerate MSU’s dominant run recreation, there was no Plan B. Fitzgerald was among the best speeding QBs of the 2010s in faculty soccer, however Moorhead’s run-pass option-heavy offense, which he perfected first as Fordham’s head coach after which as Penn State’s offensive coordinator, requires nifty deep balls to maintain defenses sincere. Fitzgerald’s deep photographs had been under common at finest.
Joe Moorhead returns for 12 months 2 in Starkville needing to exchange a ton of defensive expertise. Matt Bush/USA TODAY Sports activities
The run recreation was so good that solely nice defenses might gradual it down. However there are a number of nice defenses on MSU’s schedule.
Coordinator Bob Shoop’s second MSU protection has greater than sufficient items to be wonderful once more, though it can virtually definitely slip a bit with out linemen Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat and security Johnathan Abram, all three of whom had been first-round draft picks.
That signifies that to even keep on the eight-win stage, the offense must show it could actually diversify a bit extra. That makes the QB battle awfully fascinating. Moorhead lately signed Penn State grad switch Tommy Stevens, giving him each a bodily hyperlink to these superior PSU offenses and an intriguing competitor for junior-to-be Keytaon Thompson.
Thompson is likely to be a fair higher runner, and even worse passer, than Fitzgerald was. Not together with sacks, he is averaged 7.6 yards per carry in components of the previous two seasons, however he is accomplished simply 49% of his passes, connecting on just a few deep balls however battling the shorter stuff.
Stevens was athletic sufficient to spend time as a utility man (part-QB, part-RB, part-WR) in PSU’s offense, however to place issues in parlance Moorhead makes use of at occasions, Stevens is a passer who can run a bit, and Thompson is a runner who can go a bit.
With working backs Kylin Hill and Nick Gibson returning, together with final season’s high three receivers (plus Kansas State switch Isaiah Zuber) and three linemen who’ve mixed for 65 profession begins, the supporting forged ought to be capable of do what Moorhead asks of it. And with a schedule that options fairly just a few toss-ups and just one really probably loss (Alabama at residence), MSU might win huge if the offense can absolutely execute Moorhead’s imaginative and prescient.
To make sure, it is a hell of a imaginative and prescient — fixed 11 personnel, empower your QB, slap a go tag onto each run name, adapt continuously. However it does nonetheless require a reasonably deep ball …
2018 document and rankings: 9-Four (No. 11 S&P+, No. 13 FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 6.9 wins (No. 13)
2019 FPI projection: 7.Four wins (No. 11)
Some faculties discover a sure stage and keep it up. Beneath first George Welsh after which Al Groh, as an illustration, Virginia gained between seven and 9 video games 14 occasions in 16 years. Beneath first Jeff Bower after which Larry Fedora, Southern Miss gained between six and 9 17 occasions.
Some packages are far too stressed to try this.
Thoughts you, by way of pure win-loss data, Texas A&M seems to be one of the secure packages faculty soccer has ever seen. Within the 65 seasons for the reason that college employed a younger Bear Bryant away from Maryland, A&M has certainly fallen into that seven- to nine-win vary 28 occasions. Broaden that vary to between six and 10 wins, and also you embody 40 seasons. It appears the Aggies are what they’re.
That does not imply they settle for that. When issues begin rising stagnant, they’ve the tendency to fireside the cash cannon.
When Tom Wilson was gradual to maneuver this system ahead after Emory Bellard’s departure in 1978, the college prolonged his contract — after which all of a sudden fired him shortly thereafter. Boosters needed Bo Schembechler. After they could not get him, they gave Jackie Sherrill the richest contract within the sport’s historical past.
When R.C. Slocum fell into that six- to eight-win rut after a sequence of convention titles and main bowl appearances, he was fired, and A&M waved sufficient cash at Dennis Franchione to steal him away from Alabama. (We do not recognize that second sufficient — a faculty that was at that time within the Massive 12 waltzed into Tuscaloosa and stole a coach!)
When Kevin Sumlin fell into an eight-win rut after a Johnny Manziel-powered first-year breakthrough, it was time to fireside the cannon once more. Jimbo Fisher’s tenure at Florida State had grown stale, but it surely was nonetheless going to take some huge cash to steal him away. So A&M spent lots: $75 million assured.
A&M introduced Fisher to city, gave him a document contract, after which handed him a schedule that every one however assured he would not stay as much as no matter win expectation that cash brings with it.
Can QB Kellen Mond assist navigate the Aggies via a brutally troublesome schedule? Adam Hagy/USA TODAY Sports activities
Final season, Fisher’s first A&M crew had performed each eventual nationwide title recreation members by late September. The Aggies performed at Mississippi State and Auburn in back-to-back weeks, too. They went Zero-Four in these video games with two tight defeats, however they went 9-Zero of their different video games. That included victories over Kentucky at residence and South Carolina on the highway, plus a three-touchdown demolition of Convention USA champ UAB and a 52-13 humiliation of NC State within the Gator Bowl.
A&M’s nine-win whole was mainly a mean Sumlin season (he averaged Eight.5 wins per 12 months), but it surely got here with excessive diploma of problem. And right here comes a fair larger diploma.
You see, A&M now has to play at Clemson and changed a Kentucky residence recreation with a visit to Georgia in interdivision play. When you’re protecting rating at residence, then, which means a house recreation in opposition to S&P+’s projected No. 1 crew (Alabama) and journeys to Nos. 2-Four (Clemson in September, Georgia and LSU in November). Oh yeah, and three different projected top-20 groups go to Faculty Station.
Goodness.
Thoughts you, the Aggies might be very, superb. Quarterback Kellen Mond returns after throwing for Three,107 yards in his first season with Fisher, and each wideout is again as properly, together with super-efficient slot males Quartney Davis and Camron Buckley. Operating again Trayveon Williams and a few line starters are gone, however sophomores Jashaun Corbin and Jacob Kibodi have huge potential, and the road is loaded with veterans (4 gamers have mixed for 54 begins).
The protection has just a few extra inquiries to reply — three of final season’s high 4 linemen are gone, as are two beginning linebackers and each beginning safeties — however nonetheless boasts some playmakers. Corners Debione Renfro, Charles Oliver, and Myles Jones (mixed: six tackles for loss, one interception and 22 go breakups) are super-active, and the return of two key gamers from harm — sophomore linebacker Anthony Hines III and senior finish Micheal Clemons — might present sufficient stability that coordinator Mike Elko is not pressured to dip too closely into the wonderful incoming freshman class for assist.
S&P+ initiatives A&M 13th total — and initiatives a mean win whole of seven. That claims lots.
In 2020, Clemson and Georgia are changed on the schedule by Colorado and Vandy. Possibly that is when the wins start to pile up.
2018 document and rankings: 5-7 (No. 33 S&P+, No. 58 FPI)
2Zero19 S&P+ projection: 5.Four wins (No. 39)
2019 FPI projection: 5.Eight wins (No. 41)
The final time Mike MacIntyre was an assistant coach was 10 years in the past. He was David Cutcliffe’s first Duke defensive coordinator in 2008-09 and engineered stable enchancment for a few years, enchancment which was fully undone when he took the San Jose State head-coaching job.
The final time Wealthy Rodriguez was an assistant coach was 19 years in the past. Nineteen! He had begun to good his model of the read-option offense, and his quarterback, Woody Dantzler, had practically turn into the primary QB to throw for two,00Zero yards and run for 1,00Zero in the identical season. (Dantzler would pull it off the subsequent season, and the feat would turn into way more widespread over the previous twenty years.)
MacIntyre briefly resurrected SJSU earlier than taking the Colorado job, the place he pulled off a miraculous division title run in 2016. Rodriguez practically gained a nationwide title at West Virginia earlier than, regretfully, taking the Michigan job, working aground, and ending up at Arizona, the place he gained a division title in 2014.
Each coaches arrive in Oxford following off-field points late of their respective head-coaching tenures. MacIntyre did not do sufficient in response to a home assault accusation in opposition to an assistant, and Rodriguez was despatched packing partly due to a sexual harassment allegation and hostile office lawsuit. That is a part of the rationale they had been obtainable for Ole Miss head coach Matt Luke to scoop them up this previous offseason.
Two years into Luke’s head-coaching tenure in Oxford, you can say he is already reached the nothing-to-lose stage.
Luke was promoted to interim head coach in the summertime of 2017, when Hugh Freeze was pressured to resign for his personal behavioral points. He went solely 6-6, however with the college going through NCAA sanctions, the previous Ole Miss middle and longtime Rebels assistant acquired to maintain his job full time. However regardless of a loaded receiving corps and prolific offense, the Rebels sank to 5-7, then misplaced most of these receivers.
It is time for Matt Luke and the Rebels to hit the reset button after shedding a lot offensive expertise to the NFL. Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire
It was time to make some huge modifications. The protection had suffered a slow-motion collapse, from a peak of seventh in defensive S&P+ through the Land Shark period (2014) to 90th final fall. And whereas the offense had remained harmful, it vanished in opposition to the SEC West’s good defenses (three factors in opposition to Mississippi State, seven in opposition to Alabama, 16 every in opposition to LSU and Auburn) and had simply misplaced all its finest gamers anyway. It was about to regress.
Within the huge image, Luke hasn’t performed poorly by any stretch of the creativeness. Regardless of scholarship and postseason restrictions, Ole Miss had fallen solely to 26th in S&P+ in 2017 and 33rd in 2018. He continued to recruit fairly properly, too. Beneath regular circumstances, the Rebels would have in all probability pulled off profitable data in each seasons. However after a slight step backward, the SEC West started to rebound in 2017, then surged final fall because of steps ahead by LSU, Mississippi State and Texas A&M (and Alabama’s continued dominance). That made wins laborious to come back by.
Any hope of the Rebels standing out in 2019 will in all probability rely upon the brand new marriage between Rodriguez and redshirt freshman quarterback Matt Corral.
The 2018 blue-chipper performed in 4 video games and made absolutely the most of his alternatives, going 16-for-22 for 239 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Not together with three sacks, he additionally rushed 10 occasions for 101 yards and two scores. Granted, most of this manufacturing got here in opposition to UL Monroe, but it surely definitely backed up his recruiting hype.
Corral’s dual-threat skill needs to be interesting to Rodriguez, who additionally inherits working backs Scottie Phillips, Isaiah Woullard, and incoming blue-chipper Jerrion Ealy.
That is an incredible place to begin, however there are crimson flags elsewhere. Solely two returning linemen boast beginning expertise, and the receiving corps will get an enormous reset with the losses of A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, DaMarkus Lodge and tight finish Dawson Knox. 4-star sophomore Elijah Moore is again, and junior Braylon Sanders and tight finish Octavious Cooley have had their moments, but when Rodriguez is to modify to a extra run-heavy method, now’s time for it.
MacIntyre has a decrease bar to clear defensively, and his first Ole Miss protection would be the Rebels’ most skilled in a few years. They return their high 4 linemen, high 5 linebackers and 5 of final season’s high seven DBs. Recognized playmakers are at a minimal outdoors of deal with Benito Jones and OLB Qaadir Sheppard, however depth might be a energy, not less than.
2018 document and rankings: 2-10 (No. 53 S&P+, No. 91 FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 5.5 wins (No. 48)
2019 FPI projection: Four.Eight wins (No. 60)
Hiring a brand new coach is a spectacular crapshoot. Evaluating it in actual time is equally troublesome. Granted, that does not cease us from doing it, however each writers and athletic administrators are going to be mistaken lots of their assumptions.
Sound, logical hires fail lots in faculty soccer, and infrequently for one easy purpose: A overwhelming majority of hires are fairly sound and logical, and but somebody has to lose each recreation.
For essentially the most half, Arkansas’ hires of the previous 30 years have been completely logical.
• Jack Crowe (1990-92) was a profitable ACC and SEC offensive coordinator. He was fired one recreation into his third season.
• Danny Ford (1993-97) had gained a nationwide title at Clemson a decade earlier. He gained Arkansas its first division title in 1995 however solely as soon as gained greater than six video games.
• Houston Nutt (1998-2007) was a former Arkansas quarterback and assistant who had gained huge at Murray State. He was perhaps the largest attain of the previous three a long time, however he additionally introduced essentially the most success: 4 seasons of not less than 9 wins, three top-20 finishes and two extra SEC championship appearances. In fact, he was additionally Houston Nutt and was ultimately run out of city for being Houston Nutt.
• Bobby Petrino (2008-11) was a prolific and massively profitable former Louisville head coach. In 2011, he introduced the college its first top-five end practically 25 years. However he was additionally Bobby Petrino and was ultimately run out of city for being Bobby Petrino.
• Bret Bielema (2013-17) was a massively profitable former Wisconsin head coach who had engineered three top-10 finishes and three consecutive Rose Bowl appearances in Madison. He gained greater than seven video games simply as soon as.
• Chad Morris (2018-present) is a longtime offensive innovator who helped to ignite Dabo Swinney’s Clemson program, then wanted solely three years to flip SMU from 1-11 to 7-6.
Thirty years of seemingly sound hiring practices has produced 5 ranked finishes and 6 seasons with greater than eight wins. That might say a bit bit in regards to the chaotic, too-many-cooks machinations that are inclined to crop up within the Arkansas booster neighborhood, but it surely principally speaks to the neighborhood through which Arkansas has chosen to stay.
As laborious as it’s to face out within the SEC West — it bears mentioning, by the best way, that the Razorbacks have extra division titles than Ole Miss, Mississippi State and relative beginner Texas A&M mixed — it is even tougher to proceed standing out. Arkansas brings in stable income and continues to attempt to sustain from the attitude of the services arms race, however engineering constant success is rattling close to inconceivable.
Morris, then, enters his second season in Fayetteville going through two perpetual questions for Razorbacks head coaches: (1) How lengthy till he generates not less than a top-30 stage of success (as most of his predecessors have), and (2) if or when he will get to that stage, can he do something extra?
Chad Morris brings in a well-recognized face, former SMU QB Ben Hicks, to run the offense in Fayetteville. Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports activities
Morris’ first season was a 12 months Zero scenario — through which a coach present process a rebuild suffers a poor season and mainly will get a mulligan for it — if ever one existed. The Hogs had slipped to Four-Eight and 63rd in S&P+ in Bielema’s ultimate season, and Morris was not solely putting in critical offensive modifications, but in addition doing so and not using a quarterback who might do what he wanted. Arkansas improved from unhealthy to respectable defensively however confirmed solely uncommon flashes of offensive life, then fully gave out down the stretch. A 2-10 season ended with the Hogs getting outscored 90-6 by Mississippi State and Missouri.
It would not are inclined to matter how poorly a 12 months Zero goes so long as you discover the solutions you are on the lookout for. Lou Holtz, in any case, went Zero-11 in his first season at South Carolina in 1999, and it did not cease him from ending ranked in every of the subsequent two. Morris signed a top-25 recruiting class, and maybe extra vital, he introduced in Ben Hicks, his former SMU quarterback, as a grad switch. His ability corps enjoys excessive continuity and welcomes a trio of four-star freshmen. The protection, which actually did present occasional life in its first season with coordinator John Chavis, shall be skilled within the entrance seven, if skinny within the secondary.
There is not any purpose to assume Morris cannot have not less than a top-40 or top-50 crew this fall and a top-30ish squad someday after that. However at Arkansas, doing it a few times is not the difficulty.