Separating reality from fiction: Maryland, USC, Trevor Lawrence and extra
Invoice ConnellyESPN
Faculty soccer’s Week Three schedule feels form of gentle, does not it?
Granted, each Alabama and Clemson hit the highway to face opponents which might be in no way incompetent. Bama faces South Carolina, which seemed nice towards Charleston Southern in quarterback Ryan Hilinski’s first begin, and Clemson has to move north to face Syracuse, the one ACC crew to beat, or actually even scare, the Tigers prior to now two years.
Nonetheless, the percentages favor the 2 heavyweights (they at all times do), and there are not any High 25 vs. High 25 video games on the docket. Of the highest eight groups within the AP ballot, one is taking part in an FCS foe (LSU vs. Northwestern State), and the opposite seven are favored by a mean of 28 factors. Not many fireworks there.
Actually, although, weeks like this may be a variety of enjoyable. We do not have to fret in regards to the nationwide title race simply but, and we get some prime alternatives to determine which of the season’s stunning early storylines are actual and which are not.
Let’s stroll by means of a few of the questions which may get answered this weekend.
All occasions Jap
Is Maryland for actual?
Week Three sport: at Temple (midday, CBS Sports activities)
It has been a reasonably good season for second probabilities. LSU, led by Ed Orgeron (who went 10-25 in three seasons at Ole Miss and needed to wait a decade for one more main head-coaching gig) is coming off a giant highway win over Texas and has his crew ranked fourth within the AP ballot, fourth in my SP+ rankings and third in ESPN’s FPI. In the meantime, up close to the Chesapeake Bay, Mike Locksley’s Maryland is the early story of the season.
The Terrapins are coming off a 63-20 rout of Syracuse, a consequence that dropped the Orange out of the polls and from 40th to 70th in SP+. They embarrassed Howard 79-Zero in Week 1, which implies they’ve already scored extra factors in two video games (142) than Locksley’s New Mexico Lobos did in his final seven video games in cost there (118). Locksley went an astounding 2-26 in elements of three seasons at New Mexico, then set about rebuilding his profession. As Maryland offensive coordinator, he could not save Randy Edsall’s job, and he ended up within the Nick Saban Coach Reclamation Challenge, serving first as an analyst, then receivers coach, then offensive coordinator. Practically eight years after bombing out at UNM, he received one other head-coaching gig.
AP Picture/Gail Burton
It appears he has realized some classes, huh? After receiving no votes within the preseason polls, the Terps are already as much as 21st, their highest rating in 16 years. They’re averaging 7.9 yards per play, they’re within the prime 20 in each speeding and passing success fee, and they’re giving up virtually no unfavorable performs by any means.
The offense Locksley and offensive coordinator Scottie Montgomery (one other former head coach/reclamation undertaking after 4 years main East Carolina) have crafted appears based mostly on two basic ideas: get your finest personnel on the sector — even when meaning it’s important to, say, work out a formation for 3 good RBs — and as soon as defenses are in battle, kill ’em with run-pass choices
“We run a mode of offense that the protection cannot be proper until they out-execute us,” Locksley mentioned after the Syracuse win. Conceptually, the offense is all types of logical: run properly sufficient that the protection has to compensate, then punish them with the cross. “If you begin working the soccer with the best way now we have the aptitude to run it,” Locksley mentioned, “the one approach you may cease it’s by including the additional man within the field.”
Based on knowledge offered by Sports activities Information Options, Maryland has tried 19 RPOs this 12 months; they’ve resulted in 10 passes, 9 runs and 172 yards (9.1 per play). The Terps made Syracuse seem like it had by no means seen an RPO earlier than, gashing the Orange repeatedly and punishing them for placing too many defenders within the field.
So is that this surge actual? Maryland is not going to common 70 factors per sport for the season — a sizzling take, I do know — however can the Terps proceed their basic offensive success as opponents modify and the Massive Ten East schedule takes its toll?
SP+ is designed to not overreact to transient surges, however the truth that Maryland has risen from 68th to 37th in two weeks suggests the Terps might preserve climbing. Nonetheless, with a schedule that options 4 present SP+ top-20 groups and just one ranked decrease than 58th, there are probably plenty of shut video games and potential losses on the schedule.
This week’s sport at Temple is an ideal take a look at. The Owls are an untested 1-Zero however rank 44th in SP+ and walloped the Terps by three touchdowns in Faculty Park final 12 months.
No, these first two weeks most likely do not portend a Maryland nationwide title run. However in simply two weeks, the Terps have gone from having a 27 p.c probability at bowl eligibility (per SP+) to a 28 p.c probability of successful eight or extra video games. We will take a second to marvel at that, even when actuality is on its approach.
Is Nebraska in bother?
Week Three sport: vs. Northern Illinois (eight p.m., FS1)
the story fairly properly by now. Nebraska gained 4 of six to complete 2018 and headed into the offseason with main hype and second-year leap potential underneath Scott Frost. The Huskers remained among the many prime 15 groups by way of nationwide title odds because the season approached, however whichever rankings system you like — FPI, SP+, and many others. — it wasn’t almost as excessive on them as the standard knowledge.
To this point, it appears even the rankings have been too excessive on them. The offense carried out poorly in a 14-point win towards South Alabama, then Nebraska leaped to an early lead at Colorado solely to falter late and undergo a demoralizing time beyond regulation loss. As a substitute of a powerful 2-Zero, the Huskers are 1-1. With the schedule forward, SP+ has dropped their odds of bowl eligibility to only 40 p.c, and any hopes of a 2019 surge require an instantaneous step ahead: Their three worst opponents (per SP+) present up on the schedule over the subsequent 4 weeks.
2 Associated
The most important points proper now: The run sport has been terribly ineffective, and the protection is giving up too many huge performs (and never simply of the “96-yard flea-flicker” selection). That makes Northern Illinois an fascinating opponent. The Huskies are 38th in marginal explosiveness on offense (a measure of mine that appears on the magnitude of a crew’s profitable performs and adjusts for down, distance and subject place), and their protection ranks 12th in stuff fee (run stops at or behind the road).
The Huskies most likely aren’t ok to beat the Huskers with out assist, however they’ve loads of leftover personnel (like linebacker Antonio Jones-Davis) from final 12 months’s dynamite protection and can take a look at QB Adrian Martinez and the NU offense. If the Huskers wrestle on this one, they may preserve struggling for some time.
Is North Carolina an ACC Coastal contender?
Week Three sport: at Wake Forest (Friday, 6 p.m., ESPN)
The Mack Brown Comeback Tour picked up its second win in as many tries final week, enduring a double-digit comeback by Miami after which scoring late to win anyway. But when SP+ has been sluggish to heat an excessive amount of to Maryland, it is nonetheless downright glacial relating to the Tar Heels. After beginning the season 66th in SP+, they’re solely as much as 56th in the intervening time regardless of two energy convention wins.
The foremost cause is, on paper, they should not have crushed Miami. SP+ is a predictive measure and is subsequently constructed primarily across the steadier and extra predictive elements of the sport. I refer typically to a measure referred to as postgame win expectancy, which principally seems on the extra predictive stats from a sport and says, “based mostly on these stats, you may have anticipated to win this sport X p.c of the time.” UNC’s postgame win expectancy towards Miami: 31 p.c. The Canes had the upper success fee and higher subject place and created extra scoring alternatives. They win that sport more often than not.
A win’s a win, however UNC’s stat profile is not notably spectacular simply but, and now the Heels are a Three-point underdog in Friday’s oddly timed, oddly nonconference sport at Wake. Granted, they weren’t purported to beat South Carolina or Miami both, however there’s justifiable cause why each Vegas and the numbers have been sluggish to heat. Not even Mack’s dance strikes have swayed them. But.
So USC has an offense now?
Week Three sport: at BYU (Three:30 p.m., ABC)
As I wrote on Monday, Graham Harrell’s tenure as USC offensive coordinator has already overcome a hiccup: JT Daniels’ second-ending Week 1 damage. However Kedon Slovis took over and went 28-for-33 for 370 yards and three scores towards Stanford, and the Trojans closed out a surprisingly straightforward win on a 42-Three run.
In order that’s it, then? USC has an thrilling quarterback and an Air Raid-style offense, and now the Trojans are good once more? We’ll see. It is apparently a ceremony of passage for a hyped freshman at an L.A. college to must undergo BYU.
The Cougars gave UCLA’s Josh Rosen his first actual bump (11-for-23 for 106 yards and three picks) when Rosen was a freshman again in 2015. They’ve additionally defended the cross fairly properly this 12 months, forcing each Utah’s Tyler Huntley and Tennessee’s Jarrett Guarantano to throw quick and holding them to a mixed 132.5 passer ranking — not horrible, however removed from nice.
Is Trevor Lawrence … shaky?
Week Three sport: at Syracuse (7:30 p.m., ABC)
OK, spoiler: No, he isn’t.
That mentioned, he hasn’t been nice both. He has thrown three interceptions to 2 touchdowns, and he wanted assist from his wonderful receivers to haul in a couple of off-target balls towards A&M final week. After rating ninth in QBR as a freshman and ending the 12 months taking part in in addition to a university QB can presumably play, he is simply 22nd to date this 12 months. The disgrace!
The apparent disclaimers apply. (A) It has been two video games; (B) Even when his wonderful receivers needed to bail him out, he will have these receivers all 12 months, so that does not actually matter; (C) Clemson simply beat perhaps one of the best crew on its schedule by two touchdowns with him taking part in “shaky” ball by his requirements. Now he will get to face a shell-shocked Syracuse protection, and solely a few different defenses on the schedule may even barely sustain with Clemson athletically. Even when it takes him all 12 months to search out fifth gear, so long as he finds it earlier than the postseason, the Tigers’ title hopes are most likely nice.
Syracuse’s protection is fairly lively, by the best way. Security Andre Cisco is nearly as good a ball hawk as there’s within the nation, and a few early turnovers are principally the one factor that would make Saturday evening’s sport fascinating.
Week Three playlist
Listed here are 10 video games — not less than one from every weekend time slot — that you need to take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend, from each an info and leisure perspective.
Friday evening
Houston vs. No. 20 Washington State (9:15 p.m., ESPN)
Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen welcomes his outdated mentor, Mike Leach, to city. It does not take superior stats to counsel this one’s going to be fairly high-scoring.
SP+ projection: Wazzu 46, Houston 34
Early Saturday
Pitt at No. 13 Penn State (midday, ABC)
The Nittany Lions seem to carry many of the benefits on this one, however this could be the final sport within the rivalry for some time. Watch due to that, if nothing else.
SP+ projection: PSU 43, Pitt 17
No. 6 Ohio State at Indiana (midday, Fox)
I am not going to attempt to persuade you Indiana can win this sport, however the Hoosiers can take a look at the Buckeyes in sure methods — specifically, run protection and cross offense (QB Michael Penix Jr., a game-time choice this weekend, has seemed glorious to date for IU).
SP+ projection: Ohio State 41, Indiana 23
Kansas State at Mississippi State (midday, ESPN)
The Wildcats have performed two flawless video games (towards drastically inferior competitors), and MSU QB Tommy Stevens harm his shoulder final week however must be able to go. This may take a look at whether or not the Bulldogs are worthy of SP+’s excessive opinions — ranked 13th — of them.
SP+ projection: MSU 44, KSU 31
Saturday afternoon
Go forward and watch Bama-South Carolina for a bit, simply in case, however flip to those video games if or when Ryan Hilinski succumbs to the Bama protection.
No. 19 Iowa at Iowa State (four p.m., FS1)
ISU has had per week to determine what (almost) went improper towards Northern Iowa, but when Iowa wins its fifth in a row on this collection, it is most likely extra due to the Hawkeyes’ personal prime quality than the Cyclones’ lack thereof.
SP+ projection: Iowa 29, ISU 25
Stanford at No. 17 UCF (Three:30 p.m., ESPN)
Essentially the most high-tempo crew within the nation towards the slowest. This sport is fascinating from a styles-make-fights perspective, however UCF is healthier at its fashion than Stanford is in the intervening time, even when the Knights have a possible QB controversy on their arms.
SP+ projection: UCF 36, Stanford 20
Saturday night
Go forward and watch Clemson-Syracuse for a bit, simply in case, however flip to those video games if or when it will get out of hand.
No. 9 Florida at Kentucky (7 p.m., ESPN)
UK quarterback Terry Wilson was misplaced for the season with an damage final week, however Sawyer Smith got here in and exceeded Wilson’s passing manufacturing. Will Florida’s sack-heavy protection carry him to earth actually rapidly?
SP+ projection: Florida 39, Kentucky 28
Florida State at No. 25 Virginia (7:30 p.m., ACC Community)
FSU’s offense has discovered a great deal of success early earlier than opponents might modify to offensive coordinator Kendal Briles’ tempo. UVA’s protection is proficient and assured, and I am extraordinarily curious the way it will select to defend this offense. (I am additionally interested in whether or not FSU will defend.)
SP+ projection: Virginia 40, FSU 32
Shippensburg at Slippery Rock (6 p.m., Rock Athletics)
This week’s deep minimize. Slippery Rock is ranked 11th within the Division II coaches ballot, however you are watching this due to QB Roland Rivers III — he put up 405 passing yards and 67 speeding yards in The Rock’s 62-37 win over Wayne State final week, even though it was 49-13 on the half and the offense shifted into second gear.
SP+ projection (based mostly on 2018 numbers): Rock 32, Ship 27
Saturday late shift
Texas Tech at Arizona (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
Tech outscored Montana State and UTEP by a mixed 83-13 — this may be spectacular in a non-Maryland universe — and whereas Arizona’s protection seems to be as problematic as ever, the Wildcats’ offense can also be as explosive as ever. Factors are what we wish from Pac-12 After Darkish, proper?
SP+ projection: Tech 40, Arizona 36