Strasburg 10 years later: Sizing up his journey from No. 1 to 100 wins

WASHINGTON — A decade later, Stephen Strasburg hit the century mark.

It wasn’t fairly, however virtually 10 years to the day after he was drafted first total, and sooner or later after Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman grew to become the most recent member of Membership 1.1, Strasburg notched his 100th victory within the Washington Nationals’ 9-5 comeback win over the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night time.

The landmark W got here courtesy of a recreation wherein the Washington right-hander threw 41 pitches throughout a four-run first inning. It got here on an evening when he gave up 5 earned runs, the primary time in his profession he allowed greater than 4 earned runs and nonetheless picked up the win. It got here even though he lasted solely 5 innings, his second-shortest begin of the season. However the backside line is, it got here.

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“It is an important private accomplishment and I have been very lucky and blessed to have been ready to do this,” Strasburg mentioned afterward. “However this entire time and sooner or later, wins and losses — as a lot as you want having them subsequent to your title — it is a crew factor. And I believe it is simply nice that this was such a superb crew win. They actually picked me up for the 100th.”

100 wins may not sound like a lot of an accomplishment. Not for a hyper-hyped hurler who was thought of one of the best novice pitching prospect within the historical past of the sport. And never in an period when the once-almighty W has develop into so devalued that final yr’s NL Cy Younger winner (Jacob deGrom) completed the season with all of … watch for it … 10 wins. However 100 wins is 100 wins, and that is nearly as good a time as any to verify in on Strasburg’s evolving legacy.

In terms of the hype machine, Strasburg did not do himself any favors along with his huge league debut. On June eight, 2010, simply sooner or later shy of his draft-day anniversary, the San Diego State product exploded onto the scene when he pitched seven otherworldly innings in opposition to the Pittsburgh Pirates, putting out 14 with no walks. It was the sort of debut that, mixed along with his pedigree, left folks no selection however to imagine Strasburg would go on to develop into the best pitcher in MLB historical past. That he’d break Cy Younger’s report of 511 wins and Nolan Ryan’s report of seven no-hitters and Roger Clemens’ report of seven Cy Younger awards, and that he’d most likely do all of it by the point he turned 30.

OK, I exaggerate. However you get the purpose: Strasburg was destined for excellent issues.

As a substitute, Strasburg blew out his ulnar collateral ligament earlier than his rookie season ended, requiring Tommy John surgical procedure. He missed a lot of the 2011 season after which, regardless of being actually good in 2012, was shut down in early September by the Nationals, who have been afraid of overworking their prized pitcher and subsequently determined that one of the best factor for everybody concerned was to not let Strasburg be a part of the crew’s first postseason look.

Stephen Strasburg has a superb likelihood of getting the best profession WAR of any pitcher drafted first total. Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports activities

Since then, Strasburg’s profession has been a blended bag. When wholesome, he has been probably the greatest starters in baseball. However staying wholesome has been a problem. Since 2014, when he posted a career-high 34 begins, Strasburg hasn’t began 30 video games or reached 180 innings in any season. Over the previous 4 years, he has averaged solely 24 begins. When the Nats made the playoffs in 2014, Strasburg was entire however failed to differentiate himself in his one postseason begin. Once they made it once more in 2016, he was on the shelf. Once they made it once more in 2017, nicely, that is when the narrative — the one about Strasburg being fragile and disappointing and by no means there when his crew actually wanted him — began to show. That is when, on the heels of a historic second-half run that landed him a top-three Cy Younger end, he was completely dominant in two division sequence outings in opposition to the Chicago Cubs, together with a Recreation four gem when he was supposedly too sick to pitch however then miraculously fanned 12 over seven scoreless frames to assist Washington keep away from elimination.

Regardless of these efforts, relating to the court docket of public opinion, it appears the jury remains to be out on Strasburg. Regardless of the three All-Star appearances and the tidy 1.09 profession WHIP (solely Clayton Kershaw has been higher amongst NL starters since 2010), the notion is that Washington’s 30-year previous righty has but to satisfy his huge promise. And possibly he hasn’t. In any case, how may anybody actually dwell as much as the sort of insanely monumental expectations which have escorted Strasburg since that fateful draft day a decade in the past?

From the primary decide to the late-round steals, sustain with the gamers your crew simply made part of its future plans.

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But when we strip away the projections, if we ignore all of the what-could-have-beens and as a substitute deal strictly with what-ares, it turns into far tougher to sentence Strasburg’s profession. Will he win 300 video games? No approach. In actual fact, there is a fairly good likelihood that he would not even attain 200. However 100 wins into his profession, and some days shy of his 10th draftiversary, Strasburg holds up fairly nicely when in comparison with the opposite members of Membership 1.1.

Of the 55 gamers who’ve been chosen first total for the reason that inception of the novice draft in 1965, Strasburg’s 30.1 WAR ranks 14th, in accordance with Baseball Reference. Of the 18 pitchers who’ve been taken with the highest decide, that 30.1 WAR ranks third behind David Worth and Andy Benes. Odds are Strasburg will overtake Benes later this yr. Relying on how lengthy Worth retains pitching, there is a good likelihood Strasburg — who’s three years youthful than Boston’s lefty — will surpass him too. In actual fact, by the point Strasburg hangs it up, it is fairly attainable the one prime picks with the next profession WAR will likely be Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones and Ken Griffey Jr.

Here is the half the place I admit that WAR is not the be-all, end-all. Particularly relating to pitchers. It is also the half the place I admit that utilizing solely prime total picks as a body of reference is considerably flawed (if Strasburg doubles his present 30.1 WAR by the point he retires, he’ll nonetheless solely be tied with Andy Pettitte for 184th total).

However as we sit right here at this time, attempting to sift by all 1,219 choices from this yr’s draft and questioning what is going to develop into of Adley Rutschman 10 years from now, it is an opportune time to take inventory of Stephen Strasburg, 100 wins and all.

“Fair proportion of ups and downs,” Strasburg mentioned of what the previous decade has been like since listening to his title known as on draft day. “And I do know they’ll proceed. I am excited to see what the subsequent 10 years have in retailer.”