The 4 keys to LSU-Texas, and every thing else to look at in Week 2
Invoice ConnellyESPN
Week 1 of the faculty soccer season exceeded final 12 months’s opening weekend from the attitude of drama, wacky finishes, funky bounces and by nearly every other measure. Week 2 probably will probably be outlined by the end result of two Saturday video games: No. 12 Texas A&M at No. 1 Clemson (Three:30 p.m. ET, ABC) and No. 6 LSU at No. 9 Texas (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
Between current recruiting battles and bitterness stemming from LSU’s final teaching search, the Tigers and Longhorns have grown to dislike one another fairly a bit. It is an ideal time for them to begin a sequence on the sector. (Texas visits Baton Rouge in 2020.)
Burgeoning rivalry or not, this can be a hell of a matchup on the sector. Listed here are the 4 largest questions I’ve acquired for a way this recreation would possibly play out.
1. Who handles the circumstances?
The temperature in Austin probably will method 100 levels on Saturday. That opens the door for fatigue to play a task, because it did for Florida State towards Boise State. In humid, 90-degree circumstances, the Seminoles slowly wilted towards BSU’s tempo-heavy, quick-strike passing recreation.
By way of recreation clock, BSU averaged 22.9 seconds per snap towards FSU in Week 1. Texas, in the meantime, averaged 22.Eight towards Louisiana Tech and tried a equally excessive proportion of brief passes.
1 Associated
Twenty-three of Sam Ehlinger’s 38 passes had been thrown inside 6 yards of the road of scrimmage, together with a heavy weight loss program early within the contest; he not solely accomplished 21 of those throws, however regardless of minimal air yardage, these completions gained 146 yards (7 per catch). 5 of the completions ended up gaining 13 yards or extra. The Horns had been environment friendly sufficient within the brief passing recreation to each transfer the chains and preoccupy the safeties, opening up a couple of downfield alternatives in later quarters.
Having receivers who can block very well has changed into one in all school soccer’s most underrated and helpful luxuries, however blocking LSU’s defensive backs and linebackers is completely different than blocking Louisiana Tech’s. The Tigers allowed solely 5 yards per completion on passes thrown behind the road final season — they allowed solely 6.Eight on passes thrown inside 10 yards of the road.
Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger might be in for a giant workload towards LSU. AP Photograph/Eric Homosexual
Texas’ brief passing recreation might be crucial issue Saturday. The Longhorns may not be capable of run the ball effectively, each as a result of LSU’s defensive entrance is superior and since, due to accidents, the UT operating again corps consists of mainly Keaontay Ingram and a bunch of dudes who moved from different positions. Since this can be a huge recreation, it is secure to imagine Ehlinger will probably be ready to hold the ball 15 to 20 instances himself, however LSU’s run entrance may be the perfect Texas has confronted below Herman.
That places additional stress on Devin Duvernay, Collin Johnson & Co. to take these horizontal passes and common 7 or Eight yards per catch off of them. If they’ll do this, the Horns can each transfer the ball effectively and probably put on the Tigers down. What do you suppose wears linebackers down quicker — having to battle off a blocker to make a deal with within the field or having to dash from sideline to sideline advert nauseam?
2. Can Texas create some huge performs?
In fact, the quickest path to the tip zone is by way of the massive play. Ehlinger threw a few pretty balls downfield towards a burdened Tech secondary, however nevertheless you need to body the big-play matchup, it favors LSU.
The Tigers protection, led by security Grant Delpit, ranked 18th in my marginal explosiveness measure final 12 months, and the Texas offense ranked 116th. The Horns ranked 77th in positive factors of 30-plus yards, and what LSU allowed ranked 23rd. If the brief cross is not working, the Horns might need to search for some shortcuts, and they’re not often discovered towards defensive coordinator Dave Aranda’s assault.
Three. Can LSU keep away from going backward?
LSU’s first go-round in its new spread-ish offense was an apparent success. The Tigers destroyed Georgia Southern’s not-completely-awful protection to the tune of 42 first-half factors and an absurd 68% success fee, filtering out rubbish time. (The nationwide common for fulfillment fee is usually round 43%.)
Past the outcomes, it truly seemed completely different. LSU was foregoing huddles and seemingly permitting the defensive formation — specifically, the variety of defenders within the field — to find out runs versus passes. Joe Burrow threw a downright Ehlingerian 20 passes inside 6 yards of the road of scrimmage. (He accomplished 18 for 189 yards, together with two touchdowns and a 44-yard catch-and-run by Justin Jefferson.) There was a heavy mixture of each fast strikes to wideouts and checkdowns/screens to operating backs.
Higher but, the spread-out formations opened issues up for the run recreation: 15 non-garbage-time rushes garnered a 67% success fee. Whereas LSU was excessive on the manball consider earlier years — Eight defenders within the field? Who cares? Let’s outmuscle ’em for Three yards! — the Tigers did an intriguing job of placing the ball the place defenders weren’t on Saturday.
Among the similar questions in regards to the brief strikes and their effectiveness towards stronger, quicker defenders apply to LSU’s offense as to Texas’. However there was one glitch in an in any other case efficient assault that acquired my consideration: unfavorable performs.
Georgia Southern defenders completed the sport with 12 havoc performs (seven tackles for loss and 5 cross breakups). (A havoc play is a deal with for loss, cross intercepted or damaged up, or a compelled fumble. Havoc fee is these mixed divided by whole performs). That is a 17% havoc fee, and whereas quite a lot of that occurred in rubbish time, not all of it did. The Tigers additionally allowed a 17% havoc fee final season, which ranked 85th in FBS.
Texas’ protection managed an 18% havoc fee final season and was at 18% towards Louisiana Tech. If somebody’s shifting backward or getting passes batted, it is in all probability LSU.
four. Can LSU match Texas’ (probably) A-game?
This is one thing I wrote in my Texas preview this summer season:
Herman is the last word big-game coach. In 4 years as a head coach, he’s 10-6 straight-up as an underdog and 13-2-1 towards the unfold. As a one-possession favourite, he is 9-2 straight-up and 7-Three-1 towards the unfold. As a wholesome favourite, nevertheless? He is 21-5 straight-up (a worse win proportion than as a one-score favourite) and Eight-17-1 towards the unfold.
Texas is a six-point underdog, and the subsequent time a Herman group does not play properly as an underdog will probably be almost the primary. LSU performs higher as an underdog, too. The Tigers had been 7-1 towards the unfold as an underdog in 2017-18 however had been simply Eight-Eight as a favourite.
Any pattern data like that is based mostly on small samples, nevertheless it’s secure to say that Texas goes to play actually good soccer. Will LSU match it, or will the Tigers fall sufferer to first-half bum-rushes the identical approach Oklahoma (24-Three run) and Georgia (17-Zero run) did in losses to Texas final season? The reply might decide the end result of perhaps crucial recreation of the week.
A fast thought on attendance
School soccer attendance was at a 22-year low in 2018. You have in all probability heard plenty of causes for this. The Wi-Fi is unhealthy, the stadiums are previous, televisions are larger and cheaper, the price of attending a recreation is rising, there are extra cupcake video games than there was once. All are true, to a point.
Nonetheless, one different issue might both drive one other drop or forestall a rebound this 12 months: continued mediocrity from Tennessee, USC and Florida State.
No, actually!
It’s price mentioning, nevertheless, that attendance is not falling in every single place. Evaluating residence attendance in 2018 to the averages from 2005 to 2017, 50 FBS groups had been increased within the former than the latter, and 27 extra fell by lower than 2,00Zero followers per recreation. Issues are tilting within the fallacious route, clearly, however at solely a slight angle.
In actuality, a handful of colleges have pushed the averages down for everyone.
1. Fallen blue-bloods. From 2005 to 2017, 5 colleges — Florida, Florida State, Tennessee, UCLA and USC — averaged 82,902 per recreation in residence attendance. In 2018, they averaged 70,472. Solely one in all these storied packages (Florida) reached bowl eligibility.
Particularly, USC’s attendance has plummeted to disaster ranges: 91,480 in 2006; 87,945 in 2012; 68,459 in 2016; 55,449 in 2018.
2. More and more unhealthy energy convention packages. 5 extra Energy 5 colleges — Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Oregon State and Rutgers — have both grow to be catastrophically unhealthy, made awkward convention modifications, or, in Rutgers’ case, each.
Three. The left behind. Six mid-major packages particularly — BYU, ECU, Hawai’i, New Mexico, UConn, and UTEP — have been considerably left behind in recent times, both due to on-field struggles, unhealthy hires, convention realignment or a mixture thereof.
four. MIZ-ZZZZZZ. For the primary 4 video games of 2015, Missouri averaged 68,067 per recreation in residence attendance. An on-field collapse drove numbers down, and the November 2015 protests divided the fan base in ways in which have but to be absolutely addressed. Attendance fell by 20% in 2016 and has since slipped additional, even because the group has rebounded.
5. Stragglers. Arizona State, Arkansas, California, Minnesota and North Carolina had been both horrible in 2018 or are rebounding from a current malaise. Stanford regressed by way of each high quality and leisure worth final season. Vanderbilt hosted neither Georgia nor Alabama in 2018. Air Power and Southern Miss are mid-major attendance stalwarts that struggled.
I simply listed 26 groups. They account for all the attendance debt.
Now, there’s clearly a serious factor of “In the event you take away all of the unhealthy, every thing’s good!!” on this train. This wasn’t supposed to be a rigorous, scientific train. Nonetheless, you may boil FBS’ attendance points all the way down to solely a few quarter of FBS.
If Florida State, Tennessee, UCLA and USC had been to all rebound to a point in 2019, that may be all it takes for FBS’ general attendance to enhance over 2018 totals. In fact, these groups went 1-Three in Week 1, and the group that received misplaced its beginning quarterback to damage. That is not encouraging.
Week 2 playlist
Listed here are 10 video games — at the least one from every weekend time slot — that you must take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend, from each an data and leisure perspective.
All instances Jap
Friday night time
Marshall at Boise State (9 p.m., ESPN2)
With no Thursday night time video games this week, here is your pre-Saturday showcase recreation. BSU and new quarterback Hank Bachmeier did what they had been projected to do towards Florida State and got here away with a win in Tallahassee, however Marshall is a sturdy 51st in SP+ and all the time boasts a number of the finest general athleticism within the Group of 5. This one’s very a lot price your time.
SP+ projection: Boise State 39, Marshall (+11) 29
Early Saturday
Cincinnati at Ohio State (midday, ABC)
I doubt Cincinnati has the offensive firepower to scare the Buckeyes, however the Bearcats positively have the protection to check Justin Fields. OSU’s quarterback had a just about excellent begin towards FAU final week, however the Bearcats ranked second in my passing marginal effectivity measure final season and annoyed the daylights out of one other blue-chip sophomore, UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson, final week.
SP+ projection: OSU 34, UC (+16) 19
Military at Michigan (midday, Fox)
Bear in mind final season, when Military almost beat Oklahoma on pay-per-view? Would possibly there be a repeat blue-blood scare this time round? Probably, however provided that Military’s offense capabilities higher than it did final week, when a well-prepared Rice group virtually pulled an upset in West Level. One assumes Michigan has an excessive amount of offense and athleticism right here, however one assumed that within the OU recreation final season, too.
SP+ projection: Michigan (-22.5) 45, Military 20
Saturday afternoon
Texas A&M at Clemson (Three:30 p.m., ABC)
The opposite large recreation of the week will get the afternoon shift largely to itself. I named A&M’s Kellen Mond crucial participant of the 2019 season, each due to his potential and the variety of upset alternatives A&M has on its ridiculous schedule. Properly, right here comes Upset Probability No. 1. Can he outplay Clemson sophomore/golden god Trevor Lawrence, who, it bears mentioning, seemed awfully rusty final week towards Georgia Tech?
SP+ projection: Clemson 37, Texas A&M (+17.5) 24
Nebraska at Colorado (Three:30 p.m. Fox)
It bears mentioning that Colorado seemed fairly a bit higher than the Huskers final week, does not it? Granted, Colorado State may not be that a lot (if any) of an improve over South Alabama, however the Buffaloes pulled away from the Rams within the second half of a 52-31 win, and the Huskers wanted three return scores (not probably the most sustainable method to make a dwelling) to maintain South Alabama at arm’s size. SP+ has these groups lifeless even, with home-field benefit making the distinction.
SP+ projection: CU (+Three.5) 42, NU 40
Saturday night (moreover LSU-Texas)
Miami at North Carolina (Eight p.m., ACC Community)
Manny Diaz will get a shot at revenge of types over Mack Brown for his 2013 firing as Texas defensive coordinator. However when you determine he’d like to run the rating up, he ought to in all probability be pleased with a win of any variety, huh? UNC confused the hell out of South Carolina’s Jake Bentley final week and will do the identical to the Canes’ Jarren Williams.
SP+ projection: Miami (-5.5) 30, UNC 23
Deep minimize: North Texas at SMU. North Texas’ Mason High quality destroyed Abilene Christian (as one would have hoped he would) in Week 1, and former Texas quarterback Shane Buechele loved a prolific debut (30-for-49 for 360 yards) in SMU’s 37-30 win over Arkansas State. It is often price watching when two strains of the Air Raid battle it out, and we should always study fairly a bit about North Texas’ preparedness for a C-USA title run.
SP+ projection: SMU 40, North Texas (+Three.5) 39
Actually deep minimize: Harding at Ouachita Baptist. You may — and will — watch this Division II showcase recreation on the ESPN App when you’ve acquired different video games on TV. I have been experimenting with a model of SP+ for FCS and D2, and each of those groups ranked in final 12 months’s high 15 with top-10 offenses. Ouachita Baptist is a preseason top-five group, and Harding runs the triple choice. What extra do you might want to know?
SP+ projection (based mostly on 2018 numbers): OBU 31, Harding 30
Saturday late shift
Cal at Washington (10:30 p.m., FS1)
Loads of Energy 5 groups struggled with FBS opponents final week — Cal, to call one! — however Washington wasn’t one in all them. The Huskies trounced a sometimes strong Jap Washington squad 47-14, and Jacob Eason went 27-for-36 for 349 yards and 4 scores in his debut. Now comes perhaps the hardest protection (and, uh, weakest offense) UW will face all season. Can Eason do what Jake Browning could not final 12 months and keep away from a Golden Bears upset?
SP+ projection: UW (-14) 40, Cal 19
Stanford at USC (10:30 p.m. ESPN)
USC quarterback JT Daniels is misplaced for the season. Stanford QB KJ Costello and star deal with Walker Little are each out. This isn’t fairly the sport we thought we would see, and contours have been laborious to come back by. Nonetheless, we get Graham Harrell’s USC offense — led as a substitute by freshman Kedon Slovis — towards a Stanford protection that completely erased Northwestern every week in the past. Winner leads the Pac-12 (at 1-Zero, certain, however go along with it).
SP+ projection: USC 27 (-1 or so), Stanford 23.