The groups that may break by and bounce again in 2019
Invoice ConnellyESPN
The names atop school soccer’s hierarchy not often change. 5 applications, in any case — Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Oregon — have accounted for 25 of 45 AP top-five finishes this decade and 15 of 20 Faculty Soccer Playoff bids.
Alabama hasn’t completed outdoors the highest 10 since 2007, Ohio State has performed so solely twice since 2004, Oklahoma has gained the previous 4 Huge 12 titles and both Clemson or Florida State has gained the previous eight ACC titles.
Nonetheless, there’s all the time motion. There’s all the time a crew experiencing a dream season. There’s all the time a run we did not see coming. It is one of many issues that retains us coming again even in instances of energy consolidation.
On common, about one crew per yr improves its S&P+ ranking — the tempo- and opponent-adjusted effectivity measure I created at Soccer Outsiders in 2008 — by 20 or extra adjusted factors per recreation. One other handful enhance by not less than 15 per recreation. These are big shifts. That is Western Michigan going from 1-11 to Eight-5 in 2014, or Auburn going from Three-9 to 12-2 in 2013, or FAU going from Three-9 to 11-Three in Lane Kiffin’s first season.
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Equally, about one crew per yr regresses by 20 or extra adjusted factors per recreation, and about three extra fall by 15-plus.
And whereas some breakthroughs can present sustainable enchancment — Western Michigan, in any case, hasn’t gained fewer than six video games in a season since 2014’s rise and Auburn hasn’t gone worse than 7-6 since 2013 — what usually occurs within the following season is pretty predictable: Our outdated buddy Regression to the Imply exhibits up on the get together.
When a crew improves by 18 or extra adjusted factors per recreation in S&P+, it averages a dip of Four.9 ppg the next yr. When a crew improves by 9-18 factors per recreation, it sees a dip of two factors. On the flip aspect, when a crew regresses by 18 or extra factors, it averages an uptick of 5.Eight factors per recreation the next yr. Regressing by 9-18 factors? That is adopted by a surge of three.Four factors per recreation on common.
So which groups will maintain their enchancment from final yr and that are the highest bounceback candidates?
Groups that may maintain 2018 beneficial properties
In 2018, 14 groups improved by not less than 9 adjusted factors per recreation in S&P+. 4 of these — BYU, Fresno State, Nevada, and Utah State — improved by not less than 15, and one (Fresno) improved by greater than 20.
The most important risers — Fresno State, UAB and maybe Utah State — are amongst these most certainly to stumble this fall. Buffalo (which simply misplaced a big chunk of its offense to switch or commencement) and Kentucky (which simply misplaced huge star energy on protection) can even discover it tough to take care of final yr’s customary. That mentioned, this group of improved applications has strong stability in that just one crew misplaced its head coach, and solely 4 misplaced their beginning QBs. 9 return each, which possibly makes for a softer touchdown?
Cincinnati Bearcats
Final yr: Improved from Four-Eight to 11-2, from 95th to 50th in S&P+, and from 106th to 44th in FPI
2019 projections: 41st in S&P+ (7.6 common projected wins*) and 39th in FPI (Eight.5 wins)
Luke Fickell’s Bearcats are a yr forward of schedule. After an enormous first-year youth motion in 2017, Fickell went with a second youth motion of kinds in 2018, changing senior incumbent QB Hayden Moore with freshman Desmond Ridder and giving virtually each carry to a freshman or sophomore. Two of the highest three tacklers have been sophomores, as properly.
This, in fact, says superb issues about the place Cincinnati is perhaps headed. Ridder has Three,000-yard passing/1,000-yard dashing potential, RB Michael Warren II is a workhorse, virtually all of final yr’s receiving corps and secondary returns, and Fickell may stay off the fruits of an unimaginable 2018 recruiting class for some time.
This yr’s schedule is rugged, that includes visits from UCLA, UCF and Temple, and journeys to Ohio State, Marshall, Houston, USF and Memphis. Matching final yr’s 11-win complete can be virtually unimaginable. However sustaining final yr’s beneficial properties on paper (and the computer systems) must be lifelike.
The play of Feleipe Franks offers Florida purpose to imagine that 2018’s breakthrough can result in even higher issues this yr. AP Photograph/Mark Humphrey
Florida Gators
Final yr: Improved from Four-7 to 10-Three, from 34th to ninth in S&P+, and from 50th to 11th in FPI
2019 projections: Sixth in S&P+ (Eight.7 wins) and eighth in FPI (Eight.2 wins)
Loads of Florida’s 2018 enchancment got here after individuals had stopped paying consideration. Florida’s decades-long win streak over Kentucky ended early within the yr, and the Gators misplaced to Georgia and Missouri by a mixed 40 factors. However the Gators gained their ultimate 4 video games, averaging 45 factors and wrecking Florida State and Michigan within the course of.
Higher but, they return most of these accountable for that late-season surge. Quarterback Feleipe Franks and an ultra-deep talent corps are again, and final yr’s sophomore-heavy protection is now junior-heavy. The offensive line is present process a significant rebuild, however the continuity is powerful all over the place else regardless of latest attrition within the secondary.
Florida additionally has historical past on its aspect. Whereas the 2010s have not been almost as enjoyable in Gainesville because the 2000s, the Gators have nonetheless completed 4 of the previous 5 seasons within the S&P+ prime 25. It is extra doubtless that 2017 was the outlier, not 2018.
Georgia Southern Eagles
Final yr: Improved from 2-10 to 10-Three, from 117th to 87th in S&P+, and from 118th to 76th in FPI
2019 projections: 83rd in S&P+ (6.9 wins) and 75th in FPI (7.6 wins)
As with Florida, 2018 was extra of a rebound than an out-of-nowhere surge. After averaging eight wins and a No. 72 S&P+ rating from 2014 to 2016, their first three FBS seasons, the Eagles crumbled to 2-10 in 2017, displaying indicators of life solely after Chad Lunsford took over as interim coach for the ousted Tyson Summers. Lunsford acquired the full-time job for 2018, and voila — Southern was Southern once more.
Southern ought to stay Southern this fall, particularly now that quarterback Shai Werts’ latest drug cost has been dropped. The Eagles are loaded with expertise, particularly on protection and on the offensive line. With journeys to LSU, Minnesota, and the three finest non-Southern Solar Belt groups (Appalachian State, Troy, and Arkansas State), reaching 10 wins once more could possibly be a hefty problem, however the high quality of the crew itself is now not in query.
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Final yr: Improved from Three-9 to Eight-6, from 124th to 103rd in S&P+, and from 120th to 107th in FPI
2019 projections: 96th in S&P+ (5.9 wins) and 88th in FPI (6.7 wins)
Nick Rolovich’s Warriors started 2018 6-1, averaging almost 40 factors and rising from a projected 129th in S&P+ to 78th. Quarterback Cole McDonald’s midseason numbers have been staggering: 65% completion price, 24-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio, 169.Eight passer ranking.
McDonald started battling a nauseating variety of illnesses, nevertheless, from a strained MCL to inside bleeding in his scrotum. Consider it or not, that affected his efficiency. He accomplished 53% of his passes the remainder of the best way, with a 123.6 ranking, and Hawaii completed 2-5.
McDonald is again and wholesome, his offensive line could possibly be the very best within the MWC, and whereas the protection most likely nonetheless will not be superb, it is going to be extra skilled. The schedule is unforgiving — three Pac-12 opponents and Military in nonconference video games, plus journeys to Nevada and Boise State — so reaching one other bowl can be tough, however a wholesome McDonald means a excessive ceiling.
Texas A&M Aggies
Final yr: Improved from 7-6 to 9-Four, from 36th to 11th in S&P+, and from 40th to 13th in FPI
2019 projections: 11th in S&P+ (7.1 wins) and 11th in FPI (7.Four wins)
You are most likely seeing a development right here. Cincinnati, Georgia Southern, and Hawaii all improved on paper, however their win totals all acquired a lift from favorable schedules that may get more durable (even whereas the crew improves) in 2019.
Think about A&M the poster baby for this impact. The Aggies play the everyday West gauntlet but in addition draw a Georgia journey in interdivision play and go to Clemson in nonconference. They play every of S&P+’s projected top-four groups and 7 of the highest 17.
The Aggies must play at a top-10 degree or higher to match final yr’s win complete. They very properly would possibly. The primary-year enchancment that Jimbo Fisher engineered appeared natural and sustainable, and whereas the Aggies should take care of fairly stiff turnover on each side of the ball, they nonetheless have QB Kellen Mond and a receiving corps that has gone from sophomore-heavy to junior-heavy. They’re extremely harmful.
Does Gary Patterson have TCU prepared for a bounceback in 2019? AP Photograph/Ron Jenkins
Groups that may bounce again
Fifteen groups additionally fell by not less than 9 adjusted factors per recreation final yr, and two — Florida State and Louisville — fell by dramatic margins: 21.Four ppg for FSU, 28.Three for Louisville. Since 2006, solely three groups have fallen by a bigger quantity than final yr’s Cardinals: 2009 Ball State, 2009 Rice, and 2012 Southern Miss. That is the fallacious sort of rarefied air for the denizens of Cardinal Stadium.
Partially due to the depth of the tumble, the Seminoles and Cardinals are each among the many 5 groups I really feel are most certainly to rebound in 2019. Who else will? And by how a lot?
Florida State Seminoles
Final yr: Fell from 7-6 to 5-7, from ninth to 71st in S&P+, and from 20th to 67th in FPI
2019 projections: 33rd in S&P+ (6.7 wins) and 21st in FPI (Eight.1 wins)
There are two methods to take a look at FSU’s latest malaise. On one hand, dangerous offensive strains — just like the traditionally terrible one the Seminoles fielded final yr — can rebound fairly shortly, particularly with higher luck relating to accidents. If the 2019 line is just mediocre, there’s sufficient expertise elsewhere to push a rebound of two or three wins, minimal. Plus, new offensive coordinator Kendal Briles may doubtlessly carry his typical jolt of power — each FAU’s offense in 2017 and Houston’s in 2018 improved dramatically beneath his steerage.
Alternatively, although, this wasn’t a one-year funk. The 2018 season may need been an outright catastrophe, it was additionally the fifth consecutive yr during which FSU’s S&P+ rating fell. It may take some time to steer out of that skid.
Both means, it is a no-brainer to select the Noles to enhance this fall, merely due to how far they fell.
Louisville Cardinals
Final yr: Fell from Eight-5 to 2-10, from 14th to 98th in S&P+, and from 22nd to 103rd in FPI
2019 projections: 82nd in S&P+ (Four.2 wins) and 66th in FPI (Four.Four wins)
It must be famous that in his first season succeeding Bobby Petrino, Scott Satterfield takes over a full-on Yr Zero state of affairs this fall.
Petrino left smoking wreckage behind in Louisville, and Satterfield’s first beginning lineup may function as few as six to eight seniors. The QB group misplaced all confidence final fall. There are actually some thrilling younger athletes, however Satterfield has to construct a brand new tradition from scratch. That is often not an in a single day job.
So it would not be sensible to wager on a bowl bid or something, however there’s uncooked expertise on the quarterback place and within the receiving corps, and at worst, the protection can be much more skilled than in 2018. Whether or not the Playing cards can run the ball like Satterfield desires to is sort of unclear, however the bar is ready at two wins and a triple-digit rating. That is one thing the Cardinals can most likely clear.
TCU Horned Frogs
Final yr: Fell from 11-Three to 7-6, from 16th to 43rd in S&P+, and from 12th to 47th in FPI
2019 projections: 31st in S&P+ (7.Three wins) and 35th in FPI (7.Three wins)
In 2013, TCU ranked eighth in defensive S&P+ — good by even Gary Patterson’s requirements — however the offense misplaced its means. Beginning QB Casey Pachall broke his arm and missed 5 video games, and alternative Trevone Boykin was not but able to thrive. With some offseason scheme adjustments and enchancment from Boykin, the Frogs ignited in 2014, profitable 12 video games and a share of the Huge 12 title.
I am not going to foretell 12 wins, however quite a lot of TCU’s 2018 points mirrored shades of 2013. The protection remained wonderful (16th), and QB Shawn Robinson’s midseason damage made a shaky assault worse. (TCU ended up 91st in offensive S&P+, its worst rating since 2013, and Robinson transferred.) There was no coordinator change this time, and the QB race is ongoing, however easy in-season continuity ought to create offensive enchancment, and the protection most likely will nonetheless be Patterson-level good.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Final yr: Fell from 9-Four to 6-7, from 21st to 55th in S&P+, and from 18th to 55th in FPI
2019 projections: 34th in S&P+ (Eight.zero wins) and 32nd in FPI (Eight.Three wins)
With a massively overhauled protection, a painfully younger secondary and an early season QB damage, Tech’s 2018 drop was the best to each predict and clarify. The Hokies fell from ninth to 77th in defensive S&P+, and whereas the offense nonetheless improved general behind QB Ryan Willis, there have been a number of ups and downs.
It was fairly simple to see a stumble coming, and it is simply as simple to now forecast a rebound. The offense that rallied to complete 41st in offensive S&P+ brings again Willis and a junior-heavy talent corps, and after almost full attrition a yr in the past, the Hokies return almost their whole secondary. Their upside is as excessive as anybody’s within the ACC Coastal except for possibly Miami, and the first factor stopping them from bouncing again to 9 wins is a schedule that features journeys to Miami, Notre Dame and Virginia.
Wisconsin Badgers
Final yr: Fell from 13-1 to Eight-5, from third to 19th in S&P+, and from seventh to 24th in FPI
2019 projections: 14th in S&P+ (Eight.Eight wins) and 38th in FPI (6.6 wins)
You have most likely caught on by now that my S&P+ rankings and the ESPN Stats & Info FPI share the identical sentiment about most groups. That makes Wisconsin fascinating to me, as the 2 programs disagree dramatically, by 24 locations and a couple of.2 wins.
Wisconsin was as environment friendly as ever on offense final yr however was maybe unsustainably dangerous in particular conditions (third-and-medium, to call one). The Badgers additionally suffered huge turnover within the secondary and damage on the defensive entrance. This season they’ve to switch their beginning QB and most of their offensive line, and there is not a confirmed pass-rusher to be discovered.
I do not see QB play getting worse, although, and I am unable to even faux to fret a few Wisconsin O-line. The talent corps is loaded, and a examined secondary could possibly be wonderful if it will get simply the slightest assist from the cross rush.