What’s at stake for USWNT heading into last group match vs. Sweden?
Graham HaysespnW.com
CloseGraham Hays covers faculty sports activities for espnW, together with softball and soccer. Hays started with ESPN in 1999.
LE HAVRE, France — United States coach Jill Ellis and her gamers have heard variations of the identical query repeatedly the previous few weeks. Requested with various levels of diplomatic wording, the queries all revolved round a central tenet: Would not it’s higher in the long term if the U.S. loses Thursday’s Group F finale in opposition to Sweden and avoids any chance of an early knockout encounter with France?
Ellis provided what has turn into a constant chorus.
“I wrestle to inform my staff to not deal with one another in coaching the day earlier than [games],” Ellis mentioned. “I feel at this level it is ensuring your focus is in your self.”
Winger Crystal Dunn was much more direct.
“We wish to freaking play France,” Dunn mentioned Tuesday. “Fingers crossed, clearly. However on the finish of the day, it is mind-boggling that folks would assume we truly would wish to lose a sport going into the knockout rounds. We wish to proceed these successful vibes.”
Projecting doable paths by the knockout rounds is a time-honored custom throughout any World Cup, however it’s particularly tempting now for U.S. followers as a result of it is not clear that successful Group F comes with a lot of a reward.
We all know the U.S. is thru to Spherical of 16, and we all know it can advance as both the first- or second-place staff in Group F. So what do these two diverging paths appear to be?
First state of affairs: United States wins Group F
Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Photos
How this occurs: The U.S. wants a win or a draw in opposition to Sweden. All these targets within the Individuals’ 13-Zero opening sport in opposition to Thailand make the goal-differential tiebreaker virtually a moot level, so even when the groups draw and every end with seven factors, first place goes to the U.S.
What occurs subsequent: We all know the U.S. would play Spain within the first spherical of the match’s knockout part on this state of affairs. That sport would happen in Reims, the place the U.S. performed its first sport and loved appreciable fan help (the town is lower than an hour by practice from Paris, making it simply accessible for Individuals overseas).
The Spaniards have up to now confirmed they’re nonetheless a constant finisher — they secured a second-place end behind Germany solely on objective differential after a Zero-Zero draw with China. However Spain examined the U.S. earlier than dropping at residence in a pre-World Cup match in January. This is able to be a harder sport for the U.S. in comparison with its 2015 Spherical of 16 matchup in opposition to Colombia.
Wins by the USWNT and Group A winners France would result in a quarterfinal conflict in Paris, main some to surprise if the U.S. would wish to select what’s behind the following door. However that’s now a official “if,” as a result of the French will virtually certainly have a harder sport within the Spherical of 16 than anybody envisioned, courtesy of Brazil ending third in Group C. Whereas not but sure, these groups will in all probability meet.
Past that, there are virtually too many doable permutations to ponder. However the huge takeaways are Australia and England can be potential semifinal opponents for the U.S., if the English win or draw their last group sport in opposition to Japan.
Second state of affairs: United States finishes second in Group F
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Crystal Dunn insisted the USWNT desires to beat Sweden and end prime, and carry its momentum when the Individuals face one of the best groups on the earth.
How this occurs: The U.S. loses to Sweden. The Individuals are the favourite, however the “upset” has occurred earlier than in a serious match. Japan beat the U.S. within the 2011 World Cup, and Sweden eradicated the U.S. within the quarterfinals of the 2016 Rio Olympics by way of a shootout. General, the U.S. is a modest 5-Three-6 in opposition to Sweden over the previous decade.
What occurs subsequent: As an alternative of taking part in the match’s marquee quarterfinal beneath the primary state of affairs, the U.S. would get a spot within the marquee Spherical of 16 sport in opposition to the runner-up from Group E — both Canada or the Netherlands, the groups presently tied atop the group. The Dutch maintain the benefit due to targets scored (the perimeters are tied on objective differential), so all they want is a draw when the groups play Thursday.
That sport can be in Paris, persevering with the Individuals’ minimal journey burden this match.
The first attract of this state of affairs is a extra manageable quarterfinal. However extra manageable does not imply simple. The possible matchup for that June 29 sport in Rennes can be in opposition to Germany, which received Group B and shall be a heavy favourite in opposition to considered one of three third-place groups within the Spherical of 16, in all probability Argentina, Nigeria or Scotland. Examine that to 4 years in the past, when the U.S. performed China within the quarterfinals, and it is clear this route is hardly a dream draw, both.
The most probably semifinal opponent right here can be whichever staff the U.S. did not face within the Spherical of 16 (Canada or the Netherlands). It is also doable England might drop into this half of the bracket if it loses its group finale in opposition to Japan.
And, beneath this state of affairs, the U.S. would not face till host France till the ultimate.
As of Wednesday, June 19, FiveThirtyEight.com tasks the USWNT nonetheless holds an general 23-percent probability of successful the Girls’s World Cup, presently holding a Three-percent edge over host France as the general favourite.