Why Covington’s takedown potential will set the tone towards Lawler

The UFC will host its fifth full card on ESPN on Saturday. In the primary occasion, former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler will likely be trying to get again on observe towards former interim champion Colby Covington. A win for Covington may result in a title shot towards welterweight titleholder Kamaru Usman.

Lawler made his UFC debut again in 2002, and he will definitely have an expertise edge within the cage. Covington continues to be studying on the job in some methods and nonetheless depends closely on his wrestling background. This dynamic creates quite a lot of fascinating clashes of kinds. The next statistical classes illuminate these contrasting kinds, which may find yourself making the distinction on Saturday.

Putting differential

The title image within the welterweight division ought to clear up when the UFC hits Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday. In the primary occasion, prime contender Colby Covington takes on former champion Robbie Lawler, with a title shot probably subsequent for Covington ought to he earn a victory. “Chaos” is on a six-fight win streak however hasn’t fought in additional than a yr. Lawler, in the meantime, hasn’t gained within the Octagon in additional than two years.

UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler
• Saturday, Newark, N.J.
• Prelims: ESPN, midday ET
• Foremost card: ESPN, three p.m. ET

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It’s clear from their placing differential that Covington and Lawler each have completely different approaches to combating. Regardless of having a lot much less expertise in MMA, Covington lands extra strikes than he absorbs. Throughout his UFC profession, he has landed three.26 vital strikes per minute, whereas absorbing 2.20 per minute, for a plus-1.06 differential. However, Lawler has virtually at all times appeared open to absorbing punishment if it permits him the chance to land his personal photographs. He has absorbed three.95 vital strikes per minute whereas touchdown solely three.60 in his UFC/Strikeforce/Satisfaction FC/EliteXC profession. This leaves him with a minus-Zero.35 differential, which is third-worst amongst ranked welterweights.

Attributable to his reckless nature, this measure might not likely say a lot about Lawler’s effectiveness as a fighter. Actually, he has been outlanded in all three of his previous three victories. Nevertheless, the measure does say lots in regards to the variations within the placing kinds of the 2 fighters. Covington will probably attempt to discover a method to keep forward of Lawler by way of touchdown, whereas “Ruthless” will look to make the more durable influence and the higher impression on the judges with every of his blows.

Putting accuracy

If Covington needs to remain forward of Lawler by way of the numerous strike depend, he may have to extend his common placing output. Throughout his UFC profession, he has landed solely 38% of his vital strike makes an attempt, which is the second-worst accuracy amongst ranked welterweights. Regardless of being seemingly keen to soak up punishment, Lawler truly has sturdy protection from a share standpoint. In main promotions, he has managed to keep away from 60% of his opponents’ makes an attempt.

Attributable to his substandard accuracy, Covington has needed to outwork his opponents within the UFC. He has averaged eight.37 vital strike makes an attempt per minute. If Lawler is ready to proceed his dodge fee, Covington will probably want to extend his quantity even increased. For somebody who isn’t a wholly skilled striker, this might create the openings that Lawler must land fight-changing strikes.

Knockdowns

Robbie Lawler did not document a knockout of Ben Askren, however the former UFC welterweight champ confirmed that he nonetheless has the ability to complete a battle at any time. Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports activities

Lawler has landed 16 knockdowns and stopped 12 fights with strikes throughout his mixed UFC, Strikeforce, Satisfaction FC and EliteXC profession. He has at all times been a risk to complete the battle no matter how behind on the strike depend he falls. This can be a clear benefit that he has over Covington. Lawler lands Zero.67 knockdowns per 15 minutes of battle time, which is effectively forward of Covington, who has solely landed one knockdown in his 10-fight UFC profession.

Since Lawler is the one with the ending edge, he’ll stay a risk all through the five-round battle. However, Covington will likely be targeted on successful not less than three of the 5 rounds and surviving to the ultimate bell. Each fighters have clear paths to victory, but when present tendencies proceed lots of issues must go proper for Covington over the course of a 25-minute contest.

Takedowns

1 Associated

Whereas Lawler has the benefit by way of energy placing, Covington has maybe an excellent greater edge on the subject of takedowns. The previous Oregon State All-American wrestler has landed 5.63 takedowns per 15 minutes of battle time. Not solely is that takedown fee ranked first amongst ranked welterweights, however it is usually almost 3 times the typical among the many similar group (1.88). His 48 landed takedowns within the promotion are eighth-most amongst lively UFC fighters.

Regardless of additionally coming from a wrestling background, Lawler has at all times been much less depending on his floor sport. He lands solely Zero.76 takedowns per 15 minutes and permits his opponents to land 1.56. Covington will virtually definitely come out searching for takedowns on this battle, and Lawler should be capable of hold this battle standing so as to implement his offense. Lawler won’t solely have to cease takedowns, however he may even have to extricate himself from the grappling realm following an try. Like many former wrestlers, Covington is ready to management place even when he fails on an preliminary takedown try.

Floor placing

Though Covington has standout wrestling and takedown potential, he has not likely been in a position to translate that into efficient floor offense to this point in his UFC profession. Even along with his 48 takedowns, he has solely managed to land 71 vital floor strikes, and he has by no means landed greater than 16 vital floor strikes in a battle.

Lawler definitely permits his fair proportion of takedowns, however he has additionally displayed strong floor placing protection. He has averted 45 % of his opponents’ vital makes an attempt on the ground, and he has absorbed solely 55 vital grounds strikes in his 32-fight major-promotion profession.

Covington will probably land takedowns on this battle, however his lack of ability to attain significant offense and injury on the underside will enable Lawler to remain within the battle. Even when the previous champion spends the vast majority of a spherical caught on the underside, the battle will ultimately return to the toes the place he could make an influence along with his energy placing.