Will Nurmagomedov’s wrestling stifle Poirier?

UFC light-weight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov returns to motion on Saturday for the primary time since defeating former champion Conor McGregor final October. In the primary occasion of UFC 242 he’ll meet interim champion Dustin Poirier, who’s coming off his personal signature victory over reigning featherweight champion Max Holloway.

It is no secret that Nurmagomedov desires to get the struggle on the bottom and go to work. He is without doubt one of the finest wrestlers within the UFC and has an uncanny capacity to land with energy on the bottom. Likewise, Poirier will definitely have the sting when the struggle is on the ft. The next statistical classes drill down deeper into that stylistic distinction and element the trail to victory for every fighter.

Putting differential

UFC 242 incorporates a champion vs. champion conflict, with interim light-weight champ Dustin Poirier taking up world light-weight titleholder Khabib Nurmagomedov in the primary occasion. Poirier snapped Max Holloway’s 13-fight win streak to earn the interim crown. Now he goals to dethrone Nurmagomedov, who’s 27-Zero.

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
• Saturday, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
• Early prelims: ESPN+, 10:15 a.m. ET
• Prelims: ESPN+, 12:00 p.m. ET
• Fundamental card: ESPN+ PPV, 2 p.m. ET

Order UFC 242 now

Whereas Nurmagomedov and Poirier have radically completely different types, they’re each extraordinarily efficient strikers. Throughout his UFC profession, Nurmagomedov has landed four.29 vital strikes per minute, which is correct on the common for a ranked light-weight. Nevertheless, he has been capable of keep that offensive quantity with out sacrificing protection. He has absorbed just one.7 vital strikes per minute. Due to that excellent lack of strike absorption, his placing differential (outlined as vital strikes landed per minute minus vital strikes absorbed per minute) is +2.59. Not solely is that fee the best amongst ranked lightweights, it’s also practically 5 instances the typical of the identical group (+Zero.51).

Poirier lands extra on a per-minute foundation as his SLpM is available in at 5.75, however he additionally permits his opponents to land much more than the champion. He has absorbed four.08 vital strikes per minute. Whereas which will look like loads of punishment, the light-weight division is filled with dynamic strikers. Poirier’s SApM fee is barely barely under common for a ranked light-weight (three.78). On high of that, he has discovered methods to achieve success despite an absence of protection. Towards Holloway, Poirier took residence a commanding resolution victory regardless of absorbing 181 vital strikes as Holloway outlanded him within the struggle.

Whereas Nurmagomedov focuses on placing himself into dominant positions after which placing, Poirier is a way more conventional striker. This permits Poirier to land at the next fee, however placing in impartial positions additionally opens him as much as strikes from his opponents. He might not want to fret about counters on the ft towards Nurmagomedov. As an alternative, he ought to in all probability deal with maintaining the struggle ready that is advantageous to his model.

Floor placing

The highly effective floor recreation of Khabib Nurmagomedov, proper, helped him seize the UFC light-weight title with a win over Conor McGregor final October. AP Picture/John Locher

There are two important parts of Nurmagomedov’s placing success. First, he is ready to get the struggle on the bottom. Second, he is ready to land significant strikes on the ground. Most fighters land the vast majority of their strikes standing, however 56 p.c of Nurmagomedov’s landed vital strikes have come on the bottom, in comparison with a mean of 19 p.c for ranked lightweights.

This permits him to not solely land at a excessive fee, but in addition keep away from reprisals from opponents. Throughout his UFC profession, he has landed 368 vital floor strikes and absorbed solely 11. These 368 vital strikes equate to 2.four vital floor strikes per minute, which is the best fee among the many ranked fighters within the division.

For his half, Poirier has finished job defending himself towards floor strikes. Solely eight p.c of his absorbed vital strikes have come on the bottom, and he has absorbed solely Zero.32 vital floor strikes per minute. Nevertheless, that will not portend or predict a robust defensive efficiency towards Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov’s final three opponents, Edson Barboza, Al Iaquinta and McGregor, got here into their fights towards the present champion absorbing Zero.35, Zero.17 and Zero.27 vital floor strikes per minute, respectively. Towards Nurmagomedov that protection didn’t maintain up. Barboza absorbed three.67 vital floor strikes per minute, Iaquinta absorbed 1.36 and McGregor absorbed 2.49.

One of the best technique for Poirier can be to keep away from the bottom altogether. If the struggle stays off the mat, he ought to have a substantial benefit within the placing recreation.

Distance placing

1 Associated

Whereas Nurmagomedov excels on the bottom, Poirier does his finest work at distance, which is outlined as standing and never within the clinch. Over the course of his UFC profession, 75 p.c of Poirier’s landed vital strikes have come at distance. He lands 46 p.c of his makes an attempt at distance, in comparison with solely 34 p.c for Nurmagomedov.

At distance, Poirier has landed four.three vital strikes per minute. That fee is nicely forward of his opponent on Saturday, who lands just one.72 per minute. Poirier’s distance protection is considerably porous, as he permits his opponents to land three.2 vital strikes per minute. Nevertheless, that seemingly is not going to be a priority towards Nurmagomedov. The champion is predicted to make use of his placing to arrange wrestling alternatives with the intention to get to his floor placing.

It’s seemingly that Poirier will spend lengthy parts of this struggle on the bottom or, on the very least, defending takedowns. If Nurmagomedov is profitable at limiting Poirier’s distance placing alternatives, the challenger might want to profit from his probabilities. Poirier has landed 11 knockdowns and Zero.71 knockdowns per 15 minutes of struggle time within the UFC. Nurmagomedov has at all times proven strong sturdiness, as he has by no means been knocked down or completed. Nevertheless, if the champion finally ends up spending extended durations at distance, Poirier may simply drop him to the canvas.

Takedowns

Poirier will need to maintain this struggle standing, however that won’t be the simplest job towards Nurmagomedov. The champion has landed the third-most takedowns in UFC light-weight historical past, and he nonetheless holds the file for probably the most takedowns landed in a struggle (21, towards Abel Trujillo in 2013). In his UFC profession, Nurmagomedov has landed 5.09 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is the second-best fee amongst ranked lightweights behind solely Gregor Gillespie.

Nurmagomedov lands solely 45 p.c of his takedown makes an attempt, however, like many high-level wrestlers, he’ll string collectively a number of makes an attempt with the intention to safe a takedown. Whereas this tends to tug down a fighter’s accuracy numbers, the top end result continues to be the institution of high place on the bottom.

Throughout his UFC run, Poirier has showcased strong, however not spectacular, takedown protection. He has allowed his opponents to land Zero.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is barely higher than the typical for a ranked light-weight (1.12). Poirier has additionally efficiently defended 69% of the takedown makes an attempt towards him.

If Nurmagomedov is ready to rating takedowns, it is going to seemingly be a troublesome evening for the challenger. Nevertheless, if Poirier is ready to defend and maintain the struggle within the clinch, it may swing issues into his favor. Not like most transformed wrestlers, Nurmagomedov doesn’t have a confirmed observe file of placing within the clinch. Throughout his UFC profession, the champion has landed solely 26 vital clinch strikes and absorbed 30 clinch strikes. Alternatively, 17 p.c of Poirier’s landed vital strikes have come within the clinch.

Even when he does his finest placing work at distance, Poirier might be able to give Nurmagomedov some hassle within the clinch if he is ready to cease the continuous takedown makes an attempt.